The season has concluded for the top draft prospects; there`s no more hockey on the schedule. Several players among the top 10 extended their seasons to the final possible moment, leaving a strong impression on scouts and team executives during the Memorial Cup. With the NHL Scouting Combine happening this week in Buffalo, New York, prospects will participate in physical testing and intensive interviews with interested clubs. The combine offers teams a chance to ask unconventional questions, gauge player personalities, and in some cases, assess the impact of injuries.
Positions on the draft board could shift, as the results of the combine testing influence the statistical models used for evaluation. Moreover, this current ranking incorporates scouting assessments at 40% of the overall evaluation. The definitive ranking, scheduled for release on June 23, will factor in scouting, statistical projections, off-ice evaluations, and industry insights to different extents, which could lead to changes in players` positions.
There are five parts to this set of rankings:
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The Rank: This position reflects an assigned value derived from statistical projection, the confidence level in that projection, and traditional scouting.
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NHL Projection: Weighted 70% by the projection formula and 30% by scouting, this indicates the most probable career outcome for the player. The final ranking will also detail the player`s potential NHL ceiling.
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NHL Floor: Using the same formula, this represents the least favorable outcome with a probability exceeding 10%. For instance, if there`s a 4% chance a player never reaches the NHL and an 11% chance they become a fourth-line winger or 7th defenseman, the latter would be considered the floor. For some prospects, the floor might be outside the NHL, such as the AHL or KHL.
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Projection Confidence & Volatility: This is based purely on the projection formula and comprises two aspects: confidence and volatility. Confidence is categorized into four levels (High, Fair, Medium, Low) indicating the model`s certainty that the player will achieve their NHL projection (200+ NHL games). Higher confidence influences the player`s overall value and rank. High is >80%, Fair is 60-79%, Medium is 35-59%, Low is <35%. Volatility is also in four categories (Low, Slight, Medium, High) representing the breadth of potential career outcomes. Low volatility means a narrow range (e.g., 1st-pair to top-pair D), while high volatility indicates a wide range with distributed possibilities. This can stem from factors like their league, performance changes after league switches, injuries, or significant development swings. Many high-volatility players are considered `raw` in their development.
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Strengths: Key standout abilities of each player.
`Boom or Bust` is a term encompassing both confidence and volatility. It implies the player will either reach their NHL projection or is improbable to play 200 NHL games. The distinction between a low-confidence/high-volatility projection and a `boom or bust` projection is that `boom or bust` specifically indicates factors like injury impact making confident projection difficult due to limited sample size, or that the player`s current league historically has a low success rate in developing NHL players.
An additional factor considered is the `Russian factor,` which suggests skilled Russian players are more likely to return to Russia if they don`t meet their NHL projection.
Below is the breakdown of the top 64 prospects based on this model:
1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
NHL Projection: No. 1 Defenseman
NHL Floor: Top-Pair Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: High Confidence, Low Volatility
Strengths: Mobility, Puck Moving, Creativity, Rush Activation
2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
NHL Projection: Elite No. 1 Center
NHL Floor: Second-Line Winger
Projection Confidence & Volatility: High Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Offensive Instincts, Explosiveness, Transition Offense, Two-Way Play
3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)
NHL Projection: First-Line Center
NHL Floor: Second-Line Center
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Transition Play, Speed, Hockey Sense, Puck Handling
4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)
NHL Projection: Second-Line Power Forward
NHL Floor: Middle-Six Winger
Projection Confidence & Volatility: High Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, Scoring, Hockey Sense, Size
5. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
NHL Projection: Top-Six, Two-Way Center
NHL Floor: Third-Line Checking Center
Projection Confidence & Volatility: High Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Two-Way Play, Quick Hands, Playmaking, Efficient Puck Play
6. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
NHL Projection: Second-Line Center
NHL Floor: Third-Line Scoring Winger
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Versatility, Two-Way Play, Elite Release, Forechecking
7. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
NHL Projection: First-Line Scoring Center
NHL Floor: Injury-Shortened Career
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Low Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Speed, Puck Handling, Quick Release, Size
8. Viktor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
NHL Projection: Top-Six Scoring Forward
NHL Floor: Middle-Six Scoring Forward
Projection Confidence & Volatility: High Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Motor, Transition Offense, Two-Way Play, Off-Puck Play, Hard Skill
9. Jake O`Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
NHL Projection: Top-Six Playmaking Center
NHL Floor: Middle-Six Scoring Winger
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, Creativity, Hockey Sense
10. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)
NHL Projection: Top-Four Defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-Pair Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Physicality, Transition Defense, Mobility, Puck Moving
11. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
NHL Projection: Second-Line Scoring Forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Power Forward
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Motor, Wall Play, Physicality, Hard Skill, Competitiveness
12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
NHL Projection: Top-Four Shutdown Defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-Pair Transition Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Size, Stick Positioning and Use, Hockey Sense
13. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)
NHL Projection: Second-Line Versatile Forward
NHL Floor: Third-Line Checker
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, Versatility, Two-Way Play, Motor
14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
NHL Projection: Second-Line Scoring Forward
NHL Floor: Middle-Six Forward
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Powerful Stride, Playmaking, Puck Handling
15. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
NHL Projection: Second-Pair Transition Defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-Pair Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: High Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Gap Control, Mobility, Transition Play
16. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Scoring Winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Forward
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Speed, Finishing Ability, Hands, Size
17. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)
NHL Projection: Second-Pair Defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-Pair Physical Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Physicality, Competitiveness, Aggression, Strength
18. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Two-Way Center
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Checking Winger
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Two-Way Play, Speed, Anticipation, Forechecking
19. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)
NHL Projection: Second-Line Scoring Winger
NHL Floor: AHL Player
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Boom or Bust
Strengths: Speed, Puck Handling, Offensive Instincts, Finishing Ability
20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Two-Way Center
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Forward
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Two-Way Play, Anticipation, Quick Hands, Competitiveness
21. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
NHL Projection: Top-Four Transition Defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-Pair Defensive Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Skating, Transition Play, Hockey Sense
22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)
NHL Projection: Top-Six Forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Checking Winger
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Speed, Agility, Offensive Play Driving, Elite Release
23. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Two-Way Winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Checking Winger
Projection Confidence & Volatility: High Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Hockey Sense, Transition, Two-Way Play
24. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)
NHL Projection: Third-Line Two-Way Winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Winger
Projection Confidence & Volatility: High Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: High-End Motor, Two-Way Play, Tenacity
25. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)
NHL Projection: No. 1 Starting Goaltender
NHL Floor: 1B Tandem Goaltender
Projection Confidence & Volatility: High Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Anticipation, Crisp Movements, Competitiveness, Lateral Agility
26. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
NHL Projection: Second-Pair Defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-Pair Physical Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: High Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Transition Defense, In-Zone Defensive Play, Size, Mobility
27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)
NHL Projection: Second-Pair Two-Way Defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-Pair Offensive Specialist
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Skating, Stick Play, Transition Play, Slap Shot
28. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL Projection: Third-Line Power Forward
NHL Floor: Fourth-Line Forward
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Motor, Shooting, Hard Skill, Straight-Line Speed
29. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Two-Way Center
NHL Floor: Fourth-Line Defensive Center
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Strength, Size, Competitiveness, Two-Way Play
30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
NHL Projection: Third-Line Two-Way Forward
NHL Floor: AHL Player
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: High-End Motor, Raw Playmaking, Competitiveness, Puck Battles
31. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL Projection: Third-Line Forward
NHL Floor: NHL Depth Player
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Puck Protection, Skating, Offensive Instincts, Puck Skill
32. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Playmaker
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Scoring Depth
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Boom or Bust
Strengths: Hockey Sense, Creativity, Puck Handling, One-Timer
33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamploops (WHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Scoring Forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Scoring Depth
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, Shooting, Creativity
34. Milton Gastrin, F, Modo (J20 Nationell)
NHL Projection: Third-Line Two-Way Center
NHL Floor: Fourth-Line Center
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Low Volatility
Strengths: Defensive Play, Two-Way Instincts, Motor
35. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)
NHL Projection: Third-Line Power Forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Checking Forward
Projection Confidence & Volatility: High Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Physicality, Strength, Competitiveness, Puck Skill
36. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulea (J20 Nationell)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Scoring Forward
NHL Floor: Third-Line Scoring Depth
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, Finishing Ability, Offensive Instincts
37. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)
NHL Projection: Platoon Starting Goaltender
NHL Floor: High-End NHL Backup
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Positioning, Controlled Movements, Patience in Save Selection
38. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
NHL Projection: No. 4/5 Transition Defender
NHL Floor: AHL Scoring Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Puck Moving, Gap Control, Creativity
39. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL Projection: Third-Line, Two-Way Center
NHL Floor: Fourth-Line Defensive Center
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Two-Way Play, Penalty Killing, Competitiveness, Finishing Ability
40. Eric Nilson, F, Orebro (J20 Nationell)
NHL Projection: Bottom-Six Checking Center
NHL Floor: AHL Top-Six Center
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Two-Way Play, Forechecking, Competitiveness, Defensive Instincts
41. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, Muskegon (USHL)
NHL Projection: Top-Six Power Forward
NHL Floor: Fourth-Line Physical Winger
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Size, Motor, Two-Way Play, Puck Skill
42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Two-Way Winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Speedster
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Speed, Puck Handling, Transition Offense
43. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Power Forward
NHL Floor: AHL Player
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Boom or Bust
Strengths: Quick Release, Creativity, Physicality
44. Daniil Prokhorov, F, St. Petersburg (MHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Power Forward
NHL Floor: KHL Player
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Boom or Bust
Strengths: Size, Strength, Physicality, Heavy Shot
45. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL Projection: No. 4/5 Transition Defenseman
NHL Floor: No. 7 Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Mobility, Transition Defense, Physicality, Size
46. Max Psenicka, D, Portland (WHL)
NHL Projection: No. 4/5 Two-Way Defenseman
NHL Floor: No. 7 Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Instincts, Mobility, Gap Control, Puck Moving
47. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six, Two-Way Center
NHL Floor: Bottom-Six Checking Speedster
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Speed, Transition Play, Motor
48. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Ufa (MHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Scoring Winger
NHL Floor: KHL Player
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Boom or Bust
Strengths: Puck Handling, Instincts, Creativity
49. Kurban Limatov, D, Moscow (MHL)
NHL Projection: Second-Pair, Two-Way Defenseman
NHL Floor: KHL Player
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Boom or Bust
Strengths: Skating, Mobility, Aggressiveness, Physicality
50. Mason West, F, Edina (USHS)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Physical Forward
NHL Floor: Fourth-Line Physical Forward
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Low Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Strength, Physicality, Size, Mobility
51. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)
NHL Projection: Third-Line Scoring Winger
NHL Floor: AHL Top-Six Forward
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Two-Way Play, Playmaking, Hockey Sense
52. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)
NHL Projection: Bottom-Six Checking Center
NHL Floor: Fourth-Line Physical Center
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Low Volatility
Strengths: Strength, Size, Defensive Play, Motor
53. William Horcoff, F, Michigan (NCAA)
NHL Projection: Third-Line Two-Way Center
NHL Floor: Fourth-Line Physical Presence
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Defensive Play, Strength, Size, Wall Play
54. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)
NHL Projection: Second-Pair Shutdown Defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-Pair Physical Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Defensive Play, Puck Retrievals, Motor
55. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)
NHL Projection: No. 4/5 Shutdown Defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-Pair Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Low Volatility
Strengths: Defensive Play, Size, Physicality
56. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)
NHL Projection: Bottom-Six Defensive Center
NHL Floor: Fourth-Line Center
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Competitiveness, Size, Defensive Play
57. David Bedkowski, D, Owen Sound (OHL)
NHL Projection: Bottom-Pair Shutdown Defenseman
NHL Floor: No. 7 Physical Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Physicality, Size, Strong Stick, Penalty Killing
58. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)
NHL Projection: Bottom-Six Checking Center
NHL Floor: AHL Depth
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Penalty Killing, Physicality, Hard Skill
59. Haoxi `Simon` Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)
NHL Projection: Second-Pair Two-Way Defenseman
NHL Floor: AHL Player
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Low Confidence, High Volatility
Strengths: Skating, Mobility, Aggressiveness, Physicality
60. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)
NHL Projection: Third-Line Two-Way Forward
NHL Floor: AHL Depth
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Low Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Hockey Sense, Hard Skill, Playmaking
61. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping (SHL)
NHL Projection: Bottom-Six Checking Winger
NHL Floor: Fourth-Line Physical Winger
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Medium Confidence, Slight Volatility
Strengths: Physicality, Two-Way Play, Motor
62. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL Projection: No. 4/5 Two-Way Defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-Pair Defenseman
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Defensive Play, Physicality, Heavy Shot, Skating
63. Alexei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)
NHL Projection: 1B NHL Goaltender
NHL Floor: Reliable NHL Backup
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Fair Confidence, Medium Volatility
Strengths: Positioning, Competitiveness, Anticipation, Athleticism
64. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USA)
NHL Projection: Middle-Six Two-Way Scoring Depth
NHL Floor: AHL Top-Six Scoring Forward
Projection Confidence & Volatility: Boom or Bust
Strengths: Speed, Puck Handling, Motor
Rupert Hartwell 
Benedict Kingsley