The NHL Stanley Cup playoffs are set to begin their second round on Monday night. The defending champions, Florida Panthers, will face the Toronto Maple Leafs in an Eastern Conference matchup. Toronto is seeking to end the league`s longest championship drought, while Florida advanced by defeating their in-state rival, the Tampa Bay Lightning, in the first round. Notably, a team from Florida has reached the Stanley Cup Final in each of the past five seasons.
In another Eastern Conference series, the Carolina Hurricanes will travel north to take on the Metropolitan Division winners, the Washington Capitals. That series is scheduled to begin on Tuesday.
In the Western Conference, last season`s runner-up, the Edmonton Oilers, will face the Vegas Golden Knights in one second-round series.
With the second-round matchups confirmed, experts Sean Allen (covering the East) and Victoria Matiash (covering the West) provide their top betting picks for each series and predictions for the Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the playoff MVP.
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs
- Game 1 Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-265), Panthers -1.5 (+190)
- Series Winner: Maple Leafs (+150), Panthers (-175)
- Series Length: Four games (+600), five games (+270), six games (+200), seven games (+180)
Best bets: The Maple Leafs successfully overcame their first-round challenges, albeit with some tense moments. The Panthers won the regular-season series 3-1. This playoff series is expected to be highly competitive, with the outcome likely decided by small differences.
Both teams feature strong top-two forward lines that can match up effectively. The depth lines might be the deciding factor. Florida`s third line (Lundell, Marchand, Luostarinen) proved difficult for Tampa Bay to handle in Round 1. The question is whether Toronto`s bottom-six forwards can match their effectiveness.
Given that the oddsmakers favor the Panthers despite Toronto hosting Game 1, there`s an opportunity to consider bets that leverage Toronto`s home advantage initially. A wager on “Maple Leafs to win Game 1 and lose the series” offers enhanced odds (+300) compared to simply picking the Panthers to win the series (-175). If you believe the Panthers will win the series relatively quickly, the “Panthers -1.5 series spread” (+110) offers a better payout if they win in six games or fewer.
However, sticking with the belief that the Maple Leafs will win the Stanley Cup this season, the bet “Maple Leafs to win Game 1 and win the series (+230)” is also appealing. This Toronto team seems to have strong momentum heading into the second round.
Regarding individual player performance, Carter Verhaeghe has a history of success against the Maple Leafs, notably scoring three goals in five games when the Panthers eliminated Toronto in the 2023 playoffs. This regular season, he had two goals and four points in four games against Toronto, with a high volume of shot attempts (25 total). Given these tendencies, his relatively long odds in player categories like “most goals in series (+1000)”, “most shots on goal in series (+1000)”, and “score a hat trick in any game (+1100)” might be worth considering.
If the Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe?: If the Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup, potential Conn Smythe Trophy candidates include Auston Matthews (18-1 odds), Mitch Marner (25-1), and William Nylander (60-1), who currently leads the team in goals and points. However, Anthony Stolarz (20-1) has been crucial with timely goaltending that helped Toronto reach Round 2.
If the Panthers win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe?: If the Panthers lift the Cup, four players are among the top 20 Conn Smythe favorites. While Sergei Bobrovsky (16-1), Aleksander Barkov (18-1), and Matthew Tkachuk (18-1) are contenders, Sam Reinhart (25-1) stands out as the team`s leading scorer and logs the most ice time among forwards by a significant margin.
Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals
- Game 1 Puck Line: Hurricanes -1.5 (+190), Capitals +1.5 (-265)
- Series Winner: Hurricanes (-175), Capitals (+150)
- Series Length: Four games (+600), five games (+260), six games (+195), seven games (+200)
Best bets: Similar to the Panthers-Leafs series, oddsmakers favor the lower seed here, making the Game 1-series winner combination bets interesting. A bet on “Capitals to win Game 1 and lose the series (+320)” could be a way to improve the odds of betting on the Hurricanes ultimately winning the series.
During the regular season, the Capitals and Hurricanes split their four games, with Carolina gaining a slight edge by taking one loss to a shootout. Alex Ovechkin participated in three games against Carolina, scoring two goals.
For the Hurricanes, Seth Jarvis and Jackson Blake each scored three goals against the Capitals in the regular season. Defenseman Dmitry Orlov, facing his former team, also generated a significant number of shots and attempts (10 shots, 8 missed, 10 blocked) over the four games.
Key players for the Capitals include defensemen Jakob Chychrun and John Carlson, who have positive goal differentials when on the ice together (+7 and +6 respectively at even strength). Forward Anthony Beauvillier, who had only five points in 18 regular-season games after joining Washington, has performed much better in the playoffs, becoming a point-per-game player (“player to score two-plus goals in series (+275)”) alongside Ovechkin and Strome.
For the Hurricanes, Andrei Svechnikov (“most goals in the series (+1200)”) was promoted to the top line by Game 4 of the previous series against the Devils. He is currently tied for the lead in goals among remaining players with five. Goalie Frederik Andersen is expected to return after being sidelined for the final game and a half of the first round.
If the Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe?: If the Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup, Sebastian Aho (14-1 odds) is a strong candidate. He has improved his point production in each subsequent game against the Devils in the first round. Adding Svechnikov to his line makes it even more potent, and Aho continues to score game-winning goals, including an overtime winner in Round 1.
If the Capitals win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe?: If the Capitals win the Cup, Alex Ovechkin`s odds improved slightly from 25-1 to 20-1. This change is likely modest due to the perceived likelihood of the Capitals winning the Cup. Ovechkin led Washington with four goals in the first round, including an overtime winner. If the Capitals go all the way, Ovechkin would likely be named playoff MVP.
Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights
- Game 1 Puck Line: Golden Knights -1.5 (+180), Oilers +1.5 (-235)
- Series Winner: Oilers (-120), Golden Knights (Even)
- Series Length: Four games (+700), five games (+250), six games (+195), seven games (+180)
Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets
- Game 1 Puck Line: Jets -1.5 (+220), Stars +1.5 (–325)
- Series Winner: Stars (-165), Jets (+135)
Rupert Hartwell