2025 U.S. Open: Experts’ picks and betting tips

The third major championship of the year is set to begin as the 2025 U.S. Open takes place Thursday through Sunday at Oakmont.

Who do our golf experts predict will claim victory? Where do our betting specialists see value in the market? We analyze the top contenders and provide insights leading up to the 2025 U.S. Open.

Experts` Picks

Matt Barrie: Jon Rahm. Rahm is returning to strong form in major championships, finishing T14 at the Masters and eighth at the PGA Championship. He is starting to demonstrate the level of play that made him the world`s top player before joining LIV.

Tory Barron: Scottie Scheffler. Oakmont is notoriously difficult, designed to challenge every golfer. The eventual champion will need to be exceptionally formidable. My pick is the player who recently won three of four starts by a large margin – Scheffler is exceptionally dangerous when playing this well.

Michael Collins: Scottie Scheffler. To use a sports analogy, Scheffler has assembled all the necessary elements for victory and appears unstoppable. Given how the USGA typically sets up Oakmont, only a handful of players are likely contenders, and Scottie is certainly one of them.

Jeff Darlington: Scottie Scheffler. We`ve reached a point where picking Scheffler feels reminiscent of predicting Tiger Woods in his prime – it`s the obvious choice despite the desire to find a dark horse. While Bryson DeChambeau`s game suits Oakmont well, Scheffler`s current consistency and skill level are unmatched.

Michael Eaves: Sepp Straka. Oakmont`s anticipated setup suggests a challenging U.S. Open, emphasizing accuracy off the tee and strong iron play. Straka has excelled in these areas this season, demonstrating both precision and confidence with two wins already. Furthermore, five of the last six U.S. Open champions were first-time major winners, a trend Straka could continue.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Scottie Scheffler. If it were Scottie against the rest of the field, I might pick the field, but that`s not the question here. Part of me feels that something so predictable rarely happens in golf, prompting me to consider other options. However, observing his current play, Scottie is the undeniable pick.

Andy North: Scottie Scheffler. He has won three of his last four tournaments. Success at Oakmont requires excellent iron play, and few are better in that regard than Scottie.

Mark Schlabach: Scottie Scheffler. While this isn`t a bold prediction, if the goal is to select the player most likely to win, Scheffler is the clear choice. He is the world No. 1 and playing exceptionally well, leading the PGA Tour in almost every strokes-gained category from tee to green. His putting, previously considered a weakness, is now strong (25th in strokes gained: putting). If he`s contending on Sunday, his ability to close out tournaments is second to none.

Marty Smith: Scottie Scheffler. Oakmont is arguably the toughest course in the world, demanding extraordinary precision and accuracy. Scottie is currently playing with remarkable freedom and precision, which I expect to see continue at Oakmont.

Curtis Strange: Scottie Scheffler. He is the world No. 1, has won three of his last four events, and is playing on one of the most strategically demanding courses globally – Oakmont!

Paolo Uggetti: Jon Rahm. I was impressed by Rahm`s performance at the PGA Championship. Not only did he return to contention in a major for the first time since the 2023 Masters, but his game and competitive drive were working in synergy. His playing style should be well-suited for Oakmont, and I believe he is one of the few players capable of challenging Scheffler this week.

Scott Van Pelt: Rahm. Simply because someone needs to select a player other than Scottie.

Betting Roundtable

Odds provided by ESPN BET

Who is your pick to win?

David Gordon, ESPN Research: Rory McIlroy (+1200). McIlroy was a co-favorite at +450 for the recent PGA Championship. Now, his odds are significantly longer, partly due to some equipment issues. I trust Rory to resolve these and regain form at a tournament where he has finished runner-up in the last two years.

Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst: Collin Morikawa (+2200). Morikawa possesses the composure and analytical approach ideal for Oakmont. He started the year strong with two runner-up finishes but has cooled since March. His game is well-suited for this course, ranking fourth in accuracy and fifth in approach. If he maintains his focus, Morikawa could quietly be a contender on Sunday.

Anita Marks, betting analyst: Jon Rahm (+1200). Rahm`s long game is perfectly suited for success at Oakmont. He arrives this week in excellent form, and his competitive fire is evident. His T14 at the Masters and T8 at the PGA Championship indicate he can perform well. Rahm leads LIV in greens in regulation, a critical stat for this demanding course.

Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?

Gordon: Xander Schauffele (+210). I`m favoring his exceptional history in this tournament over his inconsistent season form at attractive odds. Schauffele has seven Top 10 finishes in eight U.S. Open appearances, with T14 being his worst result.

Maldonado: Keegan Bradley (+475). Bradley is currently trusting his swing, backed by consecutive Top 10 finishes and positive putting statistics. He is a strong ball striker across the board and surprisingly effective around the green. While his putting can be variable, his ball-striking potential is high enough to contend.

What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler bet?

Gordon: To finish Round 1 in Top 10 (+150). Scheffler has been in the Top 10 after 10 of his last 11 major championship rounds, a remarkable 91% rate. Notably, the last four U.S. Open winners, and nine of the past 11, were positioned in the Top 10 after the opening round.

Maldonado: To finish Round 1 in the Top 10 (+150). Scheffler is exceptionally strong from the start, ranking third on tour in Round 1 scoring average. Analyzing his strokes-gained data by round, Scottie performs best off the tee, with irons, and overall tee-to-green in the first round, gaining an average of 3.98 strokes total, significantly better than in subsequent rounds. He consistently starts strong.

Who are your favorite long shots/value bets?

Gordon: Cameron Young: (+10000). After a difficult start to the season with four missed cuts, Young recently finished T4 at the RBC Canadian Open and T7 at the Truist Championship. He has considerable major championship experience and past success, including five Top 10 finishes between the 2022 PGA and 2024 Masters.

Maldonado: Keegan Bradley to win (+7500). While putting and scrambling can be concerns, Bradley`s approach play and ball-striking floor are exceptionally high. With two recent Top 10 finishes, his form is peaking. He is currently performing as a top tee-to-green player, ranking second in the field over the last 32 rounds. For a player with winning-level ball-striking at longer odds, Bradley is a compelling bet.

Any other bets stand out to you?

Gordon: Make the cut parlay: Tommy Fleetwood and Harris English (-104). English is having a career-best year and has never missed the cut in nine U.S. Open appearances. Fleetwood has not missed a cut this season and has been inside the Top 40 after 36 holes in his last 11 starts. Combining these two for a cut parlay seems like a solid bet.

Maldonado: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (-140). The odds are short, but this might still be undervalued. Since January 2024, Scheffler has finished in the top five in 19 of 31 starts, including 10 wins. The data strongly supports this wager. Scheffler is not volatile, rarely has a bad round, and his ball-striking alone can keep him near the top, even if his putter isn`t perfect.

Tyler Fulghum: Dustin Johnson to miss the cut (-120). DJ won at Oakmont in the 2016 U.S. Open, which feels like a long time ago. Since joining LIV in 2022, Johnson has not come close to contending in major championships. His best result in 10 major starts since 2023 is a T31. He has missed the cut five times, including both the Masters and PGA Championship this year.

Marks: McIlroy to miss the cut (+290). McIlroy hasn`t seemed the same since winning the Masters. He shot a 78 in the second round at the Canadian Open and struggled at Quail Hollow. His issues with the driver are notable, and his iron play hasn`t been sharp. It`s possible winning the career grand slam affected his motivation.

Marks: Ludvig Aberg top 20 (+155) and top Nordic golfer (+190). Aberg recently came close to winning the Canadian Open, offering good value here for a Top 20 finish at plus money. He drives the ball as well as anyone on tour, and his last five rounds have been in the 60s.

Marks: Sepp Straka top 20 (+170). Straka is having a career year, finishing third at the Memorial Tournament and winning twice this season. His strong ball-striking makes him a potential contender on this course. Straka ranks first in greens in regulation, fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green, second in strokes gained approach, and is in the top 10 for driving accuracy.