The Champions League quarterfinals are here, and the Arsenal versus Real Madrid match stands out as the most exciting tie of this round. These two legendary clubs will meet in European competition for only the second time, almost two decades after Arsenal`s memorable victory in 2006.

In their previous encounter, Arsene Wenger`s Arsenal team achieved two clean sheets against a Real Madrid squad featuring stars like Ronaldo and Zidane. This time, Arsenal will face the current Champions League titleholders without key defender Gabriel Magalhaes. Real Madrid will also be missing important players such as Tchouameni, Ceballos, and Mendy for their trip to London.

This game promises to be a fascinating battle. Let`s analyze the key factors that could decide the outcome:

1. Arsenal`s Strong Defense at Home

Just as Arsenal seemed to be building momentum, a setback occurred. Bukayo Saka`s return was timely for a quarterfinal where Arsenal hoped their strong defense could secure victory. Comparisons to their solid 2006 defense started to emerge, but this time, Mikel Arteta has a team of established defensive stars, unlike the surprisingly effective Mathieu Flamini at left-back who played in Arsenal`s Champions League final team 19 years ago.

However, injury struck Gabriel, a cornerstone of Arsenal`s defense, ruling him out for the season. He would have been crucial against the attacking threat of Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior, protecting the left flank from Rodrygo and potentially scoring from set-pieces. While William Saliba is arguably more skilled overall, Gabriel is the vocal leader of the defense, providing crucial organization and direction. His consistent presence has been evident, having missed the starting lineup only 11 times since the beginning of last season.

Gabriel`s absence is a significant blow, but perhaps not as devastating as initially feared. Recent injury concerns regarding Jurrien Timber and Ben White have eased, with manager Mikel Arteta confirming that all players who were available against Everton are fit for the Madrid game. This provides Arteta with options. Timber and Saliba could shift positions, with White filling in at right-back, or White could play centrally, and Jakub Kiwior could replace Gabriel. While Kiwior might be a slight downgrade in individual quality, Real Madrid`s less intense pressing style might minimize any vulnerabilities.

Overstating individual absences might also overlook the collective strength of Arsenal`s defense. Sander Berge, after playing against Arsenal, described their defense as incredibly organized and compact, making it difficult to find space to attack. Gabriel is a key organizer, but Arsenal`s defensive strength is rooted in their collective understanding and drilled tactics. They function as a well-oiled machine, capable of adapting even with a crucial component like Gabriel missing.

2. Saka`s Impact in Moments

The effectiveness of Arsenal`s attack is less certain. A key aspect of this tie will be whether Arsenal`s defense can contain Real Madrid`s formidable attack, but equally important is Arsenal`s offensive performance. Real Madrid`s defense appears vulnerable, missing key full-backs like Carvajal and Mendy. This forces them to use makeshift solutions with players like Fran Garcia, Lucas Vazquez, David Alaba, and midfielders in defense. The absence of Tchouameni and Ceballos further weakens their midfield options.

Can Arsenal exploit this weakened defense? Gabriel Martinelli`s form has improved recently, but Arsenal`s attacking success largely depends on Bukayo Saka`s ability to perform at a superstar level. Before his hamstring injury in December, Saka was in outstanding form, contributing 13 assists and nine goals in 24 games. A true measure of a superstar is often seen when they are absent. In the period Saka was injured, Arsenal`s expected goals (non-penalty) decreased by 16% across all competitions, shifting them from a consistently dangerous attack to a more sporadic one. This impact was further amplified by injuries to Havertz and Martinelli.

If Saka is back to his peak, he could pose a significant challenge for Garcia and even a less effective Alaba. However, even Saka himself seems uncertain about his immediate readiness. When asked if he feels ready to start, Saka acknowledged, “There`s only one way to find out.” He added, “It was tough to be injured and miss games, but I`m focused on the positives and this is the perfect time to return.”

The optimistic view for Arsenal is that Saka, a top-tier player, is fresh and not fatigued at this crucial stage of the season. The more realistic scenario might be that Saka, with limited playing time in 2025, can only produce moments of brilliance. Arsenal must capitalize on these flashes of inspiration.

3. Real Madrid`s Individual Brilliance

If Arsenal can maximize their moments, they might edge out in what is expected to be a tense and tactical match. If Arsenal can implement their game plan, it could be a tight, controlled game where they dominate possession and exploit Madrid`s defensive weaknesses. This strategy could be effective.

However, it`s crucial to remember the familiar narrative in European football: “It`s Real Madrid.” Unexpected events often occur, often dramatically, when they are involved. Arsenal learned last season that top teams like Madrid possess more game-changing attackers. Real Madrid arguably has the most. Even if Arsenal plays their best, the game will likely be decided by small margins, and Real Madrid excels in these high-pressure situations.

Arsenal`s strong defense might contain Mbappe for most of the game, but top European teams know he only needs a brief moment to change a match. The same applies to Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo. There`s almost a sense of destiny around Real Madrid in the Champions League. Despite logical analysis, they often find a way to win. This could very well happen again.