With the European club football season now concluded, the contenders for the prestigious Ballon d`Or award have done all they can on the pitch to state their case. The recipient of this individual honor, recognized as the best player of the season, will be revealed on September 22. Until then, plenty of time remains for rigorous debate.
Engaging in this discussion is a source of great enjoyment for fans and analysts alike. While team successes rightfully hold the highest importance in sports, the exercise of identifying the planet`s top footballer in any given season is undeniably valuable.
This year`s race is particularly compelling because there isn`t an overwhelming favorite, unlike in previous years often dominated by Lionel Messi. At the beginning of 2025, Mohamed Salah seemed poised for the award given his utterly dominant form. Few could have foreseen the rapid transformation of Paris Saint-Germain from Champions League hopefuls to Europe`s premier side, propelled significantly by their star forward Ousmane Dembele, who is now considered a strong favorite to claim the prize.
However, this analysis does not aim to predict who *will* win the Ballon d`Or (for predictions, consult the betting odds). Instead, we focus on who *should* win. The key factor in this assessment is output. Since the most impactful actions in football involve scoring and creating goals, contributions in these areas carry significant weight. Preventing goals is also crucial, but given the exceptional attacking numbers produced by elite forwards this season, it seems unlikely we will see a defensive winner akin to Fabio Cannavaro.
While we won`t delve into the complexities of trophy `rings culture,` it`s clear that leading contributions like goals, assists, and clean sheets are instrumental in achieving major team honors. This aligns with the Ballon d`Or`s second criterion: a player`s contribution to `team performances and achievements.` The final decision requires balancing individual brilliance, collective success, and the third criterion: `class and fair play.` This process is more nuanced art than precise science, though applying analytical rigor remains essential.
At this stage of the season, raw statistical output is the most decisive factor. While early-season discussions might involve metrics like xG or per 90 stats to project potential, for the 2025 award, we have the complete picture of players` contributions. Here`s a ranking of the leading contenders based on these factors:
Mohamed Salah, Liverpool
Before this season, only two players in Premier League history had achieved 47 goal involvements in a single campaign, both requiring 42 games to do so. Mohamed Salah matched this record even while easing up towards the end, finishing the season with an incredible 34 goals and 23 assists across all competitions. Liverpool`s early exit from the Champions League should not detract from his achievement; he was the driving force behind an unfancied Liverpool side that dominated Europe`s most competitive domestic league comfortably.
Raphinha, Barcelona
This would truly be an astonishing narrative. At the season`s start, Barcelona`s hierarchy were actively trying to offload Raphinha. Nine months later, he emerged as the pivotal star in their triumphant title run. The Brazilian was arguably even more impactful in the Champions League, equalling Cristiano Ronaldo`s record for goal contributions with 21. Had Barcelona won the Champions League, his performance might have been enough to secure him the top spot.
Ousmane Dembele, PSG
The case for Dembele is straightforward. His transformation into one of the world`s elite center forwards was the primary catalyst behind PSG`s rise to become a Champions League-winning team. He excelled leading the attack, delivering his finest performances in the season`s most crucial matches. However, the two players ranked above him sustained their exceptional output over the entire season in more competitive domestic environments.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, PSG
The top three likely constitute a distinct tier. From here downwards, we rank players who, while perhaps not quite at the Ballon d`Or-winning level, have still enjoyed brilliant seasons. Kvaratskhelia certainly fits this description; he was another significant mid-season addition that helped transform PSG into a superteam. While his raw output might not match those above him, Kvaratskhelia excels at creating scoring opportunities for his team with remarkable flair and effectiveness.
Pedri, Barcelona
Unquestionably the standout midfielder of the season, a view shared by many. Toni Kroos recently stated, “A player like Pedri is more important than Lamine Yamal, Raphinha or Lewandowski,” labeling him `the best in the world in his position.` His statistics for ball progression were consistently excellent, but it was his surprising and impressive commitment to tackling and interceptions that showcased a new dimension to the 22-year-old`s game.
Lamine Yamal, Barcelona
In terms of sheer attacking output, Yamal is only slightly behind the top three, having contributed to 39 goals. This figure is astounding for any player, let alone a 17-year-old. His compelling narrative is amplified by his impactful performances in Champions League semifinals, marking him as one of the current favorites for future awards. Based on his current trajectory, it seems inevitable that he will soon join the elite tier of players.
Achraf Hakimi, PSG
Several PSG players could warrant a spot in the top 10, but Hakimi gets the edge for two main reasons. Firstly, his dynamic ability to contribute offensively and defensively perfectly embodies the qualities of Luis Enrique`s side. Secondly, his crucial goals in the quarter-finals, semi-finals, and the final itself significantly boost his case.
Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid
One could argue that Mbappe`s presence initially destabilized Real Madrid enough to exclude him from Ballon d`Or contention. However, the integration of a new signing wasn`t the sole challenge for Los Merengues, who also battled significant defensive injuries. It`s equally true that they might have struggled far more without Mbappe`s contribution of 42 goals.
Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool
Van Dijk delivered nothing short of an outstanding season. Any slight loss in pace he may have experienced has been more than compensated for by the significant improvements he has made to his on-the-ball abilities and overall defensive intelligence in recent years. He remains a colossus.
Harry Kane, Bayern Munich
This case is quite straightforward. Harry Kane ranks second across Europe`s top five leagues for goal contributions, achieving this in nearly 1,000 fewer minutes than Mohamed Salah. Even at 31, he continues to deliver league-leading goalscoring numbers and ranks among the top 10 for assists, now finally with significant team trophies to add to his individual brilliance.
Adrian Whitmore