Offensive and Goaltending Adjustments

As April begins, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in a familiar situation, heading to the Stanley Cup playoffs for the ninth consecutive year. Both the team and its fans are hoping this season will break the mold of past playoff disappointments.

If Toronto secures the Atlantic Division title, they are likely to face the Ottawa Senators in the first round. While the Senators are a competent team, they are not considered as formidable as teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning or Florida Panthers, positioning the Leafs as favorites. Anything less than a series victory would be seen as a significant failure, potentially leading to major offseason changes.

Without making a deep playoff run of at least one or two rounds, the core group of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly will have experienced playoff futility under three different head coaches and systems.

The question remains: Will Coach Craig Berube`s strategies effectively guide them to score in the high-traffic areas crucial for playoff success, or will their scoring struggles and playoff shortcomings persist?

Changes in Offensive Strategy and Goaltending

Under previous coach Sheldon Keefe, the Maple Leafs excelled in the regular season. Keefe recognized the reasons for their playoff failures but couldn`t persuade the team`s top players to adapt. Since taking over, Berube has implemented fundamental changes in the Leafs` playing style. Observers note a greater emphasis on forechecking, sustained offensive zone pressure, and net-front presence, contrasting with the rush-based, skill-and-speed approach favored previously.

Historically, the Leafs have struggled to score in the playoffs because their offensive style was not suited to the type of goals typically scored in the postseason. The emphasis shifts from skillful passes and highlight plays to gritty, inside plays, creating net-front chaos and scoring `greasy` goals.

The differences between Keefe’s and Berube’s systems are pronounced. The Leafs no longer dominate puck possession as they did under Keefe and are engaged in more low-scoring contests. In Keefe`s final season (2023-24), their games averaged 6.81 total goals, compared to 6.19 under Berube. Toronto`s rank in goals per game has shifted from second (3.63) to ninth (3.26), and their scoring chance ranking has dropped from second (18.09) to 22nd (14.55), according to Stathletes data.

Berube has transitioned the Leafs to a more direct offensive approach, focusing on forechecking intensity, puck retrieval, and sustained puck pressure. This resembles a dump-and-chase strategy, a significant departure from Keefe`s possession-oriented style. Toronto, once a top-10 possession team under Keefe, now ranks 20th under Berube. A key change is the decline in rush chances, from second in the NHL last season (17.5 per game) to 15th this season (14.5).

Interestingly, Toronto is among the league leaders in breakaways and Nylander tops the NHL in rush goals. Another notable shift is in rebound goals. Last season, the Leafs were last in the NHL in scoring off rebounds (7.7%), but under Berube, this has increased to 10%, per Stathletes.

Defensive Transformation

Significant improvements are evident on the defensive end. In Keefe`s last season, the Leafs conceded 3.18 goals per game with a team save percentage of .893. They averaged 32.5 shots for and 29.8 against per game. Under Berube, these numbers have shifted to 28.2 shots for and 29.3 against. Crucially, the Leafs are allowing 7% fewer scoring chances per game due to a heightened defensive focus. Berube discourages a high-paced, back-and-forth style, leading to fewer rush opportunities against. Toronto’s scoring chance differential has decreased from plus-2.11 to minus-0.34 this season.

The Leafs are now playing tighter, lower-scoring games, creating more favorable conditions for their goaltenders. Anthony Stolarz is statistically high in goals saved above expected, and Toronto boasts the league`s best record in one-goal games, reflecting their improved defensive comfort in close situations—a critical attribute for playoff hockey.

A Rebuilt Defense

Berube`s system thrives with defensemen who prioritize physicality and defensive play. General Manager Brad Treliving`s defensive overhaul has aligned well with Berube`s preferences. He inherited Jake McCabe and added Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo, Simon Benoit, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to a defensive group led by Morgan Rielly.

Berube’s St. Louis Blues teams featured defensemen known for size and defensive reliability. The current Leafs` defensemen share these traits—they are large, physical, and adept at shot blocking, all with a defensive mindset. While the Leafs` defense may not contribute significantly to offensive production, their defensive stability has undoubtedly improved.

Playoff hockey traditionally emphasizes toughness over pure skill. Physical play is more prevalent, and minor penalties are often overlooked. The Leafs have historically struggled with drawing penalties and engaging physically. The newly acquired defensemen have proven playoff track records of increased physicality, fitting into this demanding aspect of postseason play. Treliving and Berube`s strategy is evident, aligning the roster with the desired playing style—with one potential exception.

A notable parallel between Berube`s St. Louis and Toronto teams is the comparatively lower offensive output from offensive-minded defensemen like Rielly and, previously in St. Louis, Vince Dunn. Dunn only flourished offensively after leaving St. Louis. Rielly`s reduced offensive numbers have been a talking point, and he appears to be the defenseman most affected by Berube`s system. Rielly’s strengths lie in offensive systems that encourage activation and rush-based offense, similar to Dunn’s role in Seattle and Rielly’s previous role under Keefe.

Dunn`s ice time and offensive production significantly increased after leaving Berube`s system. Rielly’s point production has decreased under Berube compared to his time under Keefe, suggesting Berube`s system may indeed suppress offensive contributions from defensemen.

Playoff Success: The Key Question

One intangible factor remains: the so-called “curse.” There is no statistical or logical explanation for the playoff struggles that have plagued the Leafs, similar to historical curses of teams like the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs. The Leafs carry a burden of playoff disappointments.

Many question whether this core group has the necessary components for deep playoff success. Berube`s style seems more conducive to playoff hockey. However, the Leafs` recent playoff issues haven`t been primarily defensive; the main challenge has been offensive droughts.

Playoff hockey offers limited opportunities for open, high-speed play due to tighter checking and officiating. The Leafs` stylistic shift under Berube has better prepared them for the playoffs. A strong defense coupled with a relentless forecheck designed to wear down opponents is more effective in the postseason. This style disrupts opponents by applying constant pressure and physical engagement.

For the Maple Leafs to achieve playoff success, three critical elements must align:

  1. Goaltending must be consistently strong.
  2. Defensive solidity must be maintained.
  3. Top offensive players need to generate more scoring chances in high-danger areas.

Throughout the season, the Leafs have developed habits of aggressive forechecking, puck pursuit, and defensive commitment. Playoff success hinges on executing these principles: winning puck battles, making crucial defensive clearances, winning net-front battles for `ugly` goals, and sustaining the forecheck to wear down opponents. Playoff hockey is not about highlight-reel rushes; breakaways and odd-man rushes will be scarce.

These habits have been instilled in the team since Berube`s arrival. Now, it is up to the players to demonstrate they can perform when it matters most in the playoffs.