The field at the Club World Cup is set to be reduced from 32 teams to 16 over the next week. Final group stage matches are currently taking place across the U.S., determining which teams will advance to the knockout rounds beginning on Saturday.
As anticipated, the majority of teams expected to reach the round of 16 are from Europe and South America. However, the tournament has certainly provided its share of surprises. South American teams have collectively suffered only one loss so far in the competition. Flamengo, for instance, is among the select few teams that have already secured their place in the next round with a game remaining, following victories over Esperance de Tunis and Chelsea.
Meanwhile, Inter Miami is in a strong position to be potentially the only team from outside those dominant continents to make it to the last 16, following their notable 2-1 victory against Porto. Despite expectations, most teams favored to qualify have not yet officially clinched their spots, setting the stage for a dramatic and decisive final round of group fixtures.
Here are the potential scenarios for qualification from each group as the Club World Cup group stage draws to a close:
Club World Cup Tiebreaker Rules
Should teams be level on points in the group stage, qualification and ranking will be determined using the following criteria in order:
- Points accumulated in group stage matches.
- Points in head-to-head matches between the tied teams.
- Goal difference in head-to-head matches between the tied teams.
- Goals scored in head-to-head matches between the tied teams.
- Overall goal difference in all group stage matches.
- Overall goals scored in all group stage matches.
- Disciplinary points based on yellow and red cards (fewer points is better).
- Drawing of lots.
Group A Scenarios
Palmeiras qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win or draw against Inter Miami.
- A loss to Inter Miami, AND Al Ahly defeats Porto OR Porto defeats Al Ahly, AND Palmeiras has a superior goal difference over Porto.
Inter Miami qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win or draw against Palmeiras.
- A loss to Palmeiras, AND Porto defeats Al Ahly OR Inter Miami has a superior goal difference over Al Ahly.
Porto qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win against Al Ahly, AND Palmeiras loses to Inter Miami, AND Porto has a superior goal difference over Palmeiras.
Al Ahly qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win against Porto, AND Inter Miami loses to Palmeiras, AND Al Ahly has a superior goal difference over Inter Miami.
Group B Scenarios
Botafogo qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win or draw against Atletico Madrid.
- A loss to Atletico Madrid, AND Paris Saint-Germain loses to Seattle Sounders.
Paris Saint-Germain qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win against Seattle Sounders.
- A draw against Seattle Sounders, AND Botafogo achieves a win or draw against Atletico Madrid.
- A loss to Seattle Sounders, AND Botafogo wins against Atletico Madrid, AND Paris Saint-Germain is favored by the tiebreaker rules.
Atletico Madrid qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win against Botafogo, AND Paris Saint-Germain achieves a draw or loss against Seattle Sounders.
- A draw against Botafogo, AND Paris Saint-Germain loses to Seattle Sounders.
Seattle Sounders qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win against Paris Saint-Germain by three or more goals, AND Atletico Madrid loses to Botafogo.
Group C Scenarios
Bayern Munich: Qualified for the round of 16.
Benfica qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win or draw against Bayern Munich.
- A loss to Bayern Munich, AND Boca Juniors achieves a draw or loss against Auckland City.
Boca Juniors qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win against Auckland City, AND Benfica loses to Bayern Munich, AND Boca Juniors has a superior goal difference over Benfica.
Auckland City: Eliminated from the competition.
Group D Scenarios
Flamengo: Qualified for the round of 16.
Chelsea qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win or draw against Esperance de Tunis.
Esperance de Tunis qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win against Chelsea.
LAFC: Eliminated from the competition.
Group E Scenarios
River Plate qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win against Inter.
- A draw against Inter, AND Monterrey achieves a draw or loss against Urawa Red Diamonds.
Inter qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win or draw against River Plate.
- A loss to River Plate, AND Monterrey achieves a draw or loss against Urawa Red Diamonds.
Monterrey qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win against Urawa Red Diamonds, AND River Plate loses to Inter OR Inter loses to River Plate OR the match between River Plate and Inter ends in a goalless draw.
Urawa Red Diamonds: Eliminated from the competition.
Group F Scenarios
Fluminense qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win or draw against Mamelodi Sundowns.
- A loss to Mamelodi Sundowns, AND Borussia Dortmund loses to Ulsan HD by a margin equal to or larger than Fluminense`s loss.
Borussia Dortmund qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win or draw against Ulsan HD.
- A loss to Ulsan HD, AND Fluminense achieves a win or draw against Mamelodi Sundowns.
Mamelodi Sundowns qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win against Fluminense, AND Borussia Dortmund loses to Ulsan HD.
Ulsan HD: Eliminated from the competition.
Group G Scenarios
Juventus: Qualified for round of 16.
Manchester City: Qualified for round of 16.
Wydad Casablanca: Eliminated from the competition.
Al-Ain: Eliminated from the competition.
Group H Scenarios
Real Madrid qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win or draw against RB Salzburg.
- A loss to RB Salzburg, AND Al-Hilal achieves a draw or loss against Pachuca.
RB Salzburg qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win or draw against Real Madrid.
- A loss to Real Madrid, AND Al-Hilal loses to Pachuca.
Al-Hilal qualifies for the round of 16 with:
- A win against Pachuca, AND Real Madrid loses to RB Salzburg OR RB Salzburg loses to Real Madrid.
Pachuca: Eliminated from the competition.
Adrian Whitmore