Conn Smythe Watch: Leading Candidates for Stanley Cup Playoffs MVP

The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have reached their conclusion with just two teams remaining: the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers. These two squads face off for the second consecutive year, vying for the sport`s ultimate prize. As the series begins, attention turns to which standout performer will be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the NHL`s most valuable player during the postseason.

Previously, Mikko Rantanen was considered a top contender, but with his team, the Dallas Stars, eliminated, the race for the MVP title has a new frontrunner. To gauge the current sentiment, we surveyed over two dozen national and beat writers covering the Stanley Cup Final, asking for their top three MVP picks after the initial three rounds of play. The votes were compiled and tallied before the start of Game 1 of the final series.

It`s important to remember that the Conn Smythe Trophy considers a player`s entire playoff performance, not solely their contribution in the championship round. The award is determined by a panel of 18 members from the Professional Hockey Writers Association.

Connor McDavid earned the Conn Smythe last postseason despite his team losing the Final. Based on his significant lead heading into this rematch against Florida, he is positioned to potentially win it again, regardless of the series outcome.

McDavid has surpassed Rantanen to take the top spot, climbing from third in our previous voting before the conference finals. He was the sole player to be named on every ballot collected, securing the first-place ranking on an impressive 71% of them. All ballots that didn`t place McDavid first listed him as second.

As the Final commenced, the Edmonton captain had accumulated 26 points (six goals, 20 assists) across 16 games. He dominated the series against the Stars, registering points in every game and totaling nine points in their five-game elimination of Dallas. Two of his goals in that series were game-winners, though the Oilers collectively outscored the Stars significantly (19-5) in their victories.

One voter commented on McDavid`s performance, stating, “McDavid won me over in the last series.”

Last postseason, McDavid became only the second non-goalie in NHL history to receive the Conn Smythe while playing for the losing team, as the Oilers were defeated by the Panthers in Game 7. Now, he aims to become the fourth player ever – and the first since Sidney Crosby in 2016-17 – to capture consecutive Conn Smythe Trophies.

Given the strong support from voters, there is a possibility, albeit small, that he could win a second straight playoff MVP award even if the Oilers don`t lift the Cup. However, experiencing a second straight Final loss is likely the last thing McDavid desires.

If the award doesn`t go to McDavid, Florida`s veteran goaltender, “Playoff Bob,” appears to have an edge over his Panthers teammates for the Conn Smythe.

Bobrovsky boasts a .912 save percentage and a 2.11 goals-against average throughout the playoffs. In the Eastern Conference finals against the Carolina Hurricanes, he posted a save percentage of .920 or better in four of the five games. His statistically weakest game was the series-clinching Game 5 win. This was the only game in his last nine appearances, dating back to the second round against Toronto, where he allowed more than two goals. Bobrovsky is tied with Edmonton`s Stuart Skinner for the most shutouts in the postseason, with three.

Our voters clearly ranked Bobrovsky as the second primary candidate, with four first-place votes.

One voter who ranked him second explained, “If Florida wins, I assume it`ll be because Bob is amazing.”

Aleksander Barkov leads the Panthers in scoring with 17 points in 17 games, including six goals. His impact was clearly visible in Game 5 against Carolina, where his relentless forechecking effort directly led to the assist on the goal that sealed the series late in the third period. When Barkov is on the ice at 5-on-5, the Panthers score 57% of the goals and generate 57% of the expected goals.

Florida`s captain received one first-place vote and appeared on 63% of all ballots, which is actually more frequent than Bobrovsky (58%). However, Bobrovsky received higher overall placements.

Notably, Barkov finished second to McDavid in last season`s Conn Smythe voting despite not receiving any first-place votes.

Leon Draisaitl garnered the most support among players outside the top three, although there was a noticeable difference between him and Barkov in the voting. Draisaitl was mentioned on 42% of the ballots but received only a single first-place vote.

The Oilers` other superstar is just one point behind McDavid, with 25 points through 16 games, and has scored one more goal (seven) than McDavid in the playoffs. Should Draisaitl deliver a dominant performance in the Stanley Cup Final and Edmonton wins the Cup, he has a chance to potentially overtake McDavid for the MVP title.

One voter who ranked Draisaitl just outside their top three commented, “This should probably be a top four thanks to Draisaitl.”

Sam Bennett is clearly the third significant candidate for the Panthers. He appeared on 20% of the ballots surveyed and received two second-place votes. Like Draisaitl, he is only one point behind his team`s scoring leader (16 points in 17 games).

Bennett leads the entire playoffs with 10 goals and has been a crucial physical presence for Florida in every series. As he approaches unrestricted free agency, winning the Conn Smythe would significantly boost his future earning potential.

• Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, F, Edmonton Oilers
• Seth Jones, D, Florida Panthers
• Brad Marchand, LW, Florida Panthers

Evan Bouchard was the only player in this group to appear on more than one ballot, receiving only third-place votes. He ranks fifth overall in playoff scoring with 17 points, making him the leading defenseman in the postseason. Thirteen of his points came at even strength. He logs the most ice time for the Oilers (an average of 25:01 per game) and boasts a plus-9 rating.

The remaining players listed each received just one third-place vote.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is third in scoring for the Oilers, with 18 points in 16 games. He netted the game-winning goal in the first period of their vital Game 2 victory against the Stars.

Seth Jones has tallied seven points in 17 games for the Panthers and holds a plus-9 rating. Although he primarily plays on what is technically the second defensive pairing with Niko Mikkola, Jones leads Florida in average ice time per game at 24:59.

Lastly, Brad Marchand has been a significant contributor lower in the Panthers` lineup, recording 14 points in 17 games. He brings his characteristic combination of hustle, agitation, and offensive production to his fourth career appearance in the Stanley Cup Final. He also scored one of the Panthers` most critical goals this postseason: the overtime winner in Game 3 against Toronto, when Florida was trailing the series 2-0.

However, one voter highlighted Marchand`s linemate as a potential dark horse candidate. “Eutu Luostarinen would genuinely be fourth for me,” declared the voter, referring to the Florida winger who has accumulated 13 points in 17 games.

• Stuart Skinner, G, Edmonton Oilers
• Sam Reinhart, F, Florida Panthers
• Matthew Tkachuk, RW, Florida Panthers
• Carter Verhaeghe, LW, Florida Panthers

According to betting odds, these players are considered among the top 10 favorites to win MVP before the Stanley Cup Final. Despite this, none received any votes on the ballots we collected.

Matthew Tkachuk (16 points in 17 games) and Carter Verhaeghe (14 points in 17 games) are key offensive contributors for the Panthers, with Verhaeghe scoring two game-winning goals this postseason. Verhaeghe appeared on one Conn Smythe ballot last year, while Tkachuk did not receive any votes. Sam Reinhart is close behind them with 13 points in 15 games, having missed a couple of games against Carolina due to injury.

Stuart Skinner`s case is a prime example that the Conn Smythe encompasses the entire playoffs. Skinner has been outstanding since his brief benching in favor of Calvin Pickard, returning against Vegas in the second round after Pickard was injured. Since Game 4 against the Golden Knights, Skinner`s record is 6-1 with a remarkable .944 save percentage, a 1.41 goals-against average, and three shutouts.

Could an exceptional performance in the Stanley Cup Final outweigh Skinner`s earlier struggles and propel him into contention? Perhaps. But even then, he would still need to surpass Connor McDavid for the overall playoff MVP award. Based on the ballots received, McDavid currently holds a significant lead in the race.