The field for the Club World Cup has been cut in half, and despite some unexpected turns, the knockout stage lineup largely matches pre-tournament expectations.
Certainly, Atletico Madrid`s early exit was a surprise, but Group B was always considered the most unpredictable, with two European giants potentially opening the door for an upset. While there were other notable results, such as Chelsea`s defeat to Flamengo or Benfica`s win over Bayern Munich, the group stage concluded with only three UEFA representatives eliminated. The remaining five wealthiest European clubs advanced, joined by Lionel Messi`s team and another capable of signing expensive Spanish veterans.
This tournament doesn`t appear to favor the underdogs. But among the remaining powerhouses, who is the favorite to lift the trophy? Here is a ranking of the surviving 16 teams based on their perceived chances of winning the Club World Cup. It`s important to note that a favorable draw can significantly impact a team`s chances, as evidenced by Inter Miami`s difficult path. With that in mind, let`s review the rankings:
1. Manchester City (+1)
As the only team with a perfect record in the group stages, Manchester City has quickly integrated new signings and is managing Rodri`s playing time smartly to ensure he`s in top form. Pep Guardiola praised his team after a dominant 5-2 victory over Juventus, stating, `It has been a long, long time since we had a performance like this on and off the ball.` He added, `The players were committed and we are happy to beat a top side. This is just one game, but I think the players felt again what it was like to be a good team.` With a favorable draw ahead, City looks like the team to beat.
2. Paris Saint-Germain (-1)
There`s very little separating PSG from the top spot; perhaps the difference comes down to the performance against Botafogo. This team gave the impression of having peaked after winning the Champions League, seemingly less concerned about losing Club World Cup matches now that they`ve achieved unprecedented success. The defeat to Botafogo highlighted this.
3. Real Madrid (–)
Clearly still a work in progress compared to the teams ranked higher, Xabi Alonso`s side hasn`t faced a significant challenge in the competition yet. Their comfortable win against Salzburg was promising. Based on recent results, Juventus should not pose a major threat, suggesting a relatively clear path to the semifinals. The key question is whether their system and strongest lineup will be fully established by the time the later stages arrive.
4. Chelsea (+2)
Enzo Maresca`s team hasn`t been particularly impressive throughout the tournament and was deservedly defeated by Flamengo. However, they have benefited from luck, particularly Andreas Schjelderup`s goal securing Benfica the top spot in their group over Bayern Munich. This stroke of fortune placed Chelsea in a much more favorable section of the draw, even though both Benfica and the winner of Palmeiras vs. Botafogo could provide stern tests. They are strong favorites to reach the semifinal, and from there, anything is possible.
5. Bayern Munich (-1)
Those who were somewhat skeptical about Bayern`s form at the end of the European season won`t have had their doubts alleviated by their Club World Cup performances. They convincingly defeated the one team they were expected to, but struggled against opponents only slightly below them in quality. Their drop in the rankings might be due to missed opportunities, but there`s a real risk that such inefficiency could be exploited by Flamengo.
6. Inter (-1)
The intense battle with River Plate in Seattle reflected a competitive spirit often missing in the Club World Cup; for Inter, this tournament feels like a chance for redemption after narrowly missing out on Serie A and Champions League glory. It`s possible that the strain of high-stakes matches will catch up with Cristian Chivu`s side as the competition progresses, especially considering the difficulty they had topping Group E.
7. Borussia Dortmund (–)
Dortmund has enjoyed a fortunate draw, getting a manageable tie against Monterrey as a reward for navigating a favorable Group F without issues. Will this luck lead to the same outcome as their 2024 Champions League campaign, where they were comfortably dispatched by Real Madrid despite playing well? Probably.
8. Benfica (+1)
One of many teams in this competition whose true strength is difficult to assess after just three games. Initially, their 2-2 draw against Boca Juniors seemed underwhelming. However, now recognizing the toughness of South American opponents (especially Brazilian teams), does that result appear more impressive? Did Benfica simply get lucky against Bayern Munich? Perhaps, but if they manage to overcome Chelsea, their credentials might need to be taken more seriously.
9. Fluminense (+7)
In our pre-tournament rankings, we noted that Fluminense seemed to lack the attacking flair of the other Brazilian teams. What we underestimated was the strength of their defense, allowing a mere 1.7 expected goals (xG), a figure bettered only by Bayern Munich. The draw has been kind to them, and it could continue to be with a potentially tired Inter side ahead. Their match could be another opportunity for an upset.
10. Palmeiras (+1)
Considering our high expectations for Palmeiras entering the competition, it`s hard to shake the feeling that they are the least impressive among the Brazilian quartet. Yet, they remain undefeated and have likely just been a bit unlucky in front of goal. If talents like Willian Estevao and Vitor Roque find their rhythm, they could be the team to emerge from what we`re calling `Chelsea`s quadrant of favorability`.
11. Botafogo (+13)
Having delivered the tournament`s biggest shock by defeating PSG, Botafogo then held their nerve against Atletico Madrid. Needing to limit the defeat margin to below three goals is a complex task, and Fogo relied heavily on goalkeeper John Victor and their defense, who have all performed commendably. A solid defense is crucial for tournament success, although conceding over two xG per game isn`t ideal. Then again, it might be some time before Botafogo faces another team as strong as the ones they met in the group stage (Seattle Sounders excluded, of course).
12. Juventus (-2)
Talk about coming back to reality with a bang. The scale of their 5-2 loss to Manchester City, following impressive wins over Al-Ain and Wydad Casablanca, might be mitigated by Igor Tudor`s six lineup changes, as he was reluctant to criticize his already-qualified players harshly. Nevertheless, their failure to secure a draw means a clash with Real Madrid in the last 16. This likely marks the end of their journey.
13. Flamengo (–)
This ranking feels unfairly low. Flamengo arguably looked like the best of the Brazilian teams in the competition. Jorginho has been outstanding in midfield, and Gonzalo Plata was a thrilling breakout star in their win over Chelsea. The only issue is that victory propelled them into the tougher side of the bracket, with a likely route to the final potentially involving Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, and Real Madrid. Pulling off one more upset doesn`t seem beyond Filipe Luis and his team, but overcoming three such formidable opponents is hard to envision.
14. Monterrey (+8)
Former Guardiola assistant Domenec Torrent has made an immediate impact in the Monterrey dugout, guiding them to three unbeaten games where they proved incredibly resilient against more talented opponents like Inter and River Plate. They then efficiently completed the job against Urawa Red Diamonds with a convincing 4-0 win, removing any need to worry about other group results.
15. Al-Hilal (–)
The Kobe Bryant speech shared by Al-Hilal on social media after their 2-0 victory against Al-Ain speaks to the mindset of the Saudi giants entering the knockout stages: “Job`s not finished.” The signing of Theo Hernandez further strengthens Simone Inzaghi`s squad, and the draw against Real Madrid offers a glimmer of hope. Still, their meeting with Manchester City, while rich in geopolitical symbolism, is unlikely to end in their favor.
16. Inter Miami (+2)
Inter Miami might boast the greatest player in the history of the game, but they simply are not equipped to overcome Paris Saint-Germain, probably Bayern Munich, potentially Real Madrid, and then perhaps Manchester City. Definitely not.
Benedict Kingsley