Every year, the NHL draft sees talented players emerge from the later rounds to forge significant careers. While advanced scouting and analytics have improved teams` ability to spot these prospects earlier, a few `diamonds in the rough` inevitably slip through the cracks in the later stages of the draft.
The era of finding Hall of Fame talents like Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Lundqvist, or Brett Hull late in the draft is largely over. However, skilled, smaller players often seem to be drafted lower than their talent might suggest. Lane Hutson, the recent Calder Trophy winner, wasn`t a true `late-round` pick (selected 62nd overall in 2022), but many felt he should have been chosen much earlier.
Examples of successful recent late-round picks include Troy Terry (148th overall, 2015), Andrew Mangiapane (166th, 2015), Jesper Bratt (162nd, 2016), Brandon Hagel (159th, 2016), and Mark Stone (178th, 2010). Concerns were raised about all of them during their draft years, whether related to size, skating ability, or how their game would translate to the NHL. Yet, each has vastly surpassed expectations and even represented their countries internationally. Your draft position doesn`t define your future; while early picks get more opportunities, later picks can carve out success through performance.
A key factor in the success of late-round picks is possessing elite skill in at least one area – what one NHL executive termed a `separating skill` that makes them unique from others.
For the upcoming draft class, a few players stand out as potential late-round steals. Historically, players drafted after the third round have less than a 3% chance of playing 200 NHL games, meaning only a handful from beyond pick 96 are likely to make it. Becoming an impact player (excluding goalies) is even rarer, below 1.5%. Despite these low odds, the potential reward makes these picks worthwhile gambles, and some players in this class have the distinct skills that could improve their chances.
Cameron Schmidt, RW, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
Public rankings often place Schmidt much higher, sometimes even in the first round for most of the season. However, NHL teams I`ve spoken with tend to see him being selected between the third and fifth rounds, largely due to his smaller stature at 5-foot-7 compared to the average NHL player.
Nevertheless, Schmidt`s potential as a second-line scoring winger, perhaps in the mold of Alex Debrincat, is exciting. Teams are understandably hesitant to use early picks on players under 5-foot-9 given the rarity of their success. However, Schmidt is arguably the fastest player in the draft and possesses an elite shot, giving him multiple `separating skills.` One scout noted that if he were 6-1, he might be considered a top 10-15 pick.
His 40 goals in 61 games make him one of the draft`s best pure goal scorers. He can finish plays in various ways: off the rush, with one-timers, net-front finishes, and a quick, powerful catch-and-release shot. With his elite speed and versatile scoring touch, Schmidt has a high likelihood of leading the CHL in goals over the next two seasons.
Alex Debrincat, a successful smaller scorer, is 5-8. If Schmidt grows to that height or even 5-9, he has a real chance to become a reliable NHL goal-scorer. Instead of prioritizing physicality or size, taking a chance on a player who already possesses elite talent, hoping for growth, could yield significant rewards for a team.
Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln Stars (USHL)
A defenseman standing nearly 6-7 with strong physical attributes and the potential to be a shutdown defender will be very attractive to NHL teams. Rombach may lack the offensive flair often desired in top defensemen, but he has a clear path to becoming a solid No. 4 or 5 defenseman in the NHL.
Defensively, he possesses one of the most complete skill sets in the draft class, which is expected to improve as he gains experience. He shows impressive ability to retrieve pucks, actively scanning for threats and anticipating pressure. He uses head fakes to evade forecheckers and makes simple, effective passes when clear lanes appear.
When defending, he effectively uses his large frame to disrupt rushes, shut down plays along the boards, and make it hard for opponents to generate offense from cycle play. He isn`t overly aggressive physically, but while that can be developed at his size, scouts appreciate that he avoids getting caught out of position chasing big hits. When closing gaps on players, he leads with a strong stick and smothers opponents, forcing turnovers or dump-ins.
If his skating and physicality continue to develop, Rombach has the toolkit to be an effective shutdown defender, capable of killing penalties and handling secondary matchups.
David Bedkowski, D, Oshawa Generals (OHL)
Old-school hockey minds will appreciate Bedkowski`s penchant for physical play. He`s a throwback, thriving on the confrontational aspects of the game. At nearly 6-5 and 215 pounds, he is the most physically imposing defenseman in this draft class. While brute force alone doesn`t guarantee NHL success, the Florida Panthers` recent playoff performance might make executives consider Bedkowski`s ability to combine effective transition defense with inflicting significant punishment on opponents.
He is one of the best at defending zone entries in the draft. If he can better choose when to step up for contact, there`s a path for him to become an effective bottom-pair defenseman.
His ceiling as a top-four or five defender might not be high, but NHL teams need depth and physical toughness to succeed in the playoffs. Bedkowski has the potential to develop into a reliable provider of these qualities.
Bedkowski is no stranger to using brute force on the ice.
Chris Tanouye/Getty Images
Viktor Klingsell, LW, Skelleftea AIK (J20)
Another European forward with potential as a late-round steal is Viktor Klingsell, who had a notable performance at the World Under-18 Championships. While his overall production in Sweden didn`t match Jesper Bratt`s at the same stage, he significantly outplayed Bratt when competing against players his own age. Given their similar height, high-level playmaking ability, and vision, it`s understandable why some see Klingsell as a potential `Bratt lite` in the NHL. He lacks physicality, which is common for players his size, but his instincts and offensive toolkit are among the best for European skaters available later in the draft.
His pace is the main concern. Klingsell fits a boom-or-bust profile. If he hits his potential, he could be a second-line offensive driver assisting on 50-plus goals annually. If not, he`s likely to be a strong SHL player. This is precisely the type of risk worth taking in later rounds, especially when the primary concern is speed, which can often be developed more effectively than natural offensive instincts and playmaking ability.
Filip Ekberg, LW, Ottawa 67`s (OHL)
Another Swedish forward with a chance to become a valuable pick is the dual-threat Ekberg. The first half of his season was hampered by illness and a limited role. However, his play improved significantly in the latter half, culminating in an impressive performance at the U18s, where he scored 18 points in seven games and earned an invitation to Sweden`s World Junior summer camp.
There`s strong reason to believe Ekberg is on the verge of a major scoring breakthrough in the OHL, which could elevate his projection to a middle-six scorer at the NHL level.
Ekberg is a well-rounded forward who anticipates plays, facilitates offense, and possesses an excellent catch-and-release shot. While he sometimes lacks high-end dynamism, he showed legitimate flashes of skill when healthy at the U18s. If he can improve his skating, he displays the key attributes needed for a smaller player to succeed in a secondary scoring or power-play role in the NHL.
Aidan Lane, RW, Saint Andrew`s College/Brampton Steelheads (OHL)
Had it not been for his outstanding performance in the OHL late in the season, Aidan Lane might not even be on the NHL draft radar. A rule change allowing Saint Andrew`s College graduates to play in the CHL permitted Lane to play the final 13 games for Brampton, where he averaged a point per game.
Projecting prep school players is difficult due to limited sample sizes. However, the high-energy winger looked entirely capable in a top-six role for Brampton. With his strength, physicality, and ability to generate offense, he has a chance to develop into a power winger suitable for a bottom-six role in the NHL.
He transitioned smoothly, drew defenders effectively, and made positive plays. His physical tools also allowed him to overpower more seasoned OHL players. Lane possesses the drive, physical attributes, and promising offensive skills that make him a potentially high-value pick beyond the fourth round. Improving his speed and explosiveness will be crucial for him to effectively use his tools for forechecking and secondary offense at the NHL level.
Since he is committed to playing in the NCAA at Harvard, he will have ample time to develop against strong amateur competition.
L.J. Mooney, RW, USNTDP (USHL)
Another smaller winger, Mooney is a personal favorite among draft prospects. He`s a dynamic skater whose puck-handling skill can excite fans. At 5-7, possessing multiple `separating skills` should encourage a team to take a chance on him in the middle rounds.
He is a relentless player who constantly draws attention. His blazing speed is immediately noticeable, especially when combined with fantastic puck skill. There is genuine potential for him to become a nightmare for defenders in transition. For this to happen, Mooney needs to improve his ability to facilitate offense and read the game, utilizing his elite skating and skill to attack the middle of the ice and create high-danger chances.
Given his size and questions about playmaking, he is somewhat of a boom-or-bust prospect. However, many players with his skill level lack the competitive drive. Mooney leaves no doubt about his willingness to compete, shown by his fearless play, consistent pace, and commitment on both sides of the puck.
For teams with multiple second or third-round picks needing a dynamic skater and potential legitimate contributor—like the Philadelphia Flyers, Montreal Canadiens, and Detroit Red Wings—taking a chance on Mooney could be well worth it.
Rupert Hartwell