Key Storylines for the U.S. Open at Oakmont

Historically, Oakmont has played exceptionally tough for the U.S. Open. Across its nine previous hostings, only 23 competitors have finished under par. Notably, three past champions ended their tournament with scores above par, and the lowest winning score over 72 holes at this course is 5 strokes under par.

With its punishing ankle-deep rough and exceptionally fast greens, Oakmont presents arguably golf`s ultimate challenge. The layout is made even more formidable by the absence of water hazards and a scarcity of trees.

2021 U.S. Open champion Jon Rahm, now a LIV Golf captain, commented on the difficulty, stating, “It`s going to be a real test… Many frustrating things are bound to occur. The fairways are narrow, you`ll face challenging lies and bunkers, and the greens are tough. It will be a significant, demanding test – a true embodiment of what the U.S. Open represents.”

Ahead of the tournament, several key questions emerge: Can Scottie Scheffler maintain his dominant form and capture the third leg of his career Grand Slam? Will Masters champion Rory McIlroy overcome recent struggles with his driver that affected his previous two events? And which lesser-known players could potentially surprise and contend for the U.S. Open title this Sunday?

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has claimed victory in three of his last four tournaments, including his third major championship at the PGA Championship. Is he the favorite to win once more?

Mark Schlabach suggests the only scenario where Scheffler might not contend is if his driving falters significantly, which wasn`t an issue in his recent Memorial win. Scheffler appears to have resolved the driver issues he experienced during the final round of the PGA Championship last month. Such is his skill level, it could even have been a minor aiming error.

The world`s top-ranked player has secured three wins in his last four outings, adding a third major title to his career. Over his previous five tournaments, he has averaged an incredible 14 strokes gained against the field, a performance level that would be almost insurmountable if repeated. He leads the tour across most key strokes-gained categories for ball-striking and driving. Additionally, he ranks within the top 25 for putting. Facing him in this form will be a considerable challenge for competitors.

Paolo Uggetti agrees, noting that Scheffler is clearly the player everyone is aiming to catch, and his form justifies this. He currently appears almost invincible. While this course and setup will likely demand his best performance – contrasting with a potential `B-game` win at Quail Hollow – Scheffler`s play has been returning to his peak 2024 standard recently.

Uggetti echoes the sentiment about driving being a potential vulnerability but expresses particular interest in Scheffler`s performance on Oakmont`s challenging greens. While Scheffler seems to have overcome his previous putting struggles, becoming a top-20 putter this season, early difficulties on the greens could potentially lead to frustration affecting other aspects of his play. He recalls how unpredictable native areas at Pinehurst last year seemed to challenge Scheffler. If one seeks a potential reason for Scheffler not excelling this week, the greens could be it.

What are the current issues facing Rory McIlroy, and is it likely he can perform well at Oakmont?

Mark Schlabach notes that McIlroy has visibly struggled with his tee shots since the driver model he used to win the Masters was found nonconforming during testing before the PGA Championship. This issue significantly impacted his performance at Quail Hollow, a course where he previously had considerable success, leaving him unable to consistently find the fairway.

At the recent RBC Canadian Open, McIlroy tried a different version of the new TaylorMade driver, resulting in poorer performance. Despite using a shorter shaft for presumably better control, he hit only 42% of fairways, managing just four in his second round en route to an 8-over 78. Such inaccuracy would be highly detrimental at Oakmont.

While McIlroy is trying yet another TaylorMade driver this week and feels more comfortable, Schlabach expresses greater concern about his mental state and motivation following his career Grand Slam achievement at the Masters. McIlroy has openly discussed finding it harder to dedicate long hours to practice and has stated that no future PGA Tour win will compare to his victory at Augusta National.

McIlroy commented, “You visualize making the winning putt at the Masters, but you don`t anticipate what follows.” He added that he typically finds it challenging to compete effectively immediately after a major win, as the desire to relax and savor the accomplishment affects motivation. Reflecting on his long pursuit of the Grand Slam, he felt entitled to some relaxation but stressed that Oakmont demands full focus. “But here at Oakmont, I certainly can’t relax this week,” he concluded.

Schlabach believes it may take several more weeks before McIlroy returns to his peak form.

Paolo Uggetti reflects on the unpredictable nature of golf. One moment, McIlroy is seemingly at his career peak after winning the Masters for the Grand Slam and three events this season, leading to speculation he might continue his elite performance unimpeded. However, the sport rarely follows such a simple path.

Even top players are susceptible to golf`s inconsistencies. Whether it`s a minor adjustment in swing, putting, or, as with McIlroy, adapting to new equipment like a driver, a small issue can disrupt a streak of strong play. McIlroy appears to be navigating such difficulties currently.

Uggetti observed McIlroy practicing with a driver seemingly matching the model and specifications he used at the Masters, rather than the latest TaylorMade version. This change might help him recapture the form he displayed at Augusta. However, even if he managed to win there without consistently hitting fairways, the unforgiving nature of Oakmont will not be as forgiving.

What are the expectations for defending champion Bryson DeChambeau this week?

Mark Schlabach anticipates DeChambeau will be a strong contender again. He reiterates that, similar to past discussions, DeChambeau`s success will heavily depend on his ability to keep his drives accurately on the fairways, improving upon his driving accuracy from last year.

During his victory at Pinehurst No. 2 last year, DeChambeau hit only around half the fairways (57%). Such a low percentage would be detrimental at Oakmont. He compensated for driving inaccuracies by excelling in greens in regulation and showcasing brilliant putting, which ultimately secured his second U.S. Open title. Schlabach views DeChambeau`s putting skill as a key factor favoring his contention this week.

Despite his often aggressive driving style, DeChambeau is recognized as one of the tour`s top putters, a skill that will be particularly advantageous on Oakmont`s notoriously difficult greens.

Paolo Uggetti observes that, excluding Scottie Scheffler, DeChambeau has been remarkably consistent in major championships over the last two years. He has achieved six top-six finishes in his last nine major starts, including two runner-up results and a victory. Uggetti would be surprised if DeChambeau doesn`t contend at Oakmont, feeling the course layout is well-suited to his playing style.

Despite this, Uggetti expresses keen interest in DeChambeau`s approach play, an area he suggests potentially hindered him at both Augusta and Quail Hollow. At the Masters, DeChambeau hit only 60% of greens in regulation throughout the week, and his approach game cost him nearly half a stroke relative to the field at the PGA Championship.

While Oakmont`s demands for distance and ability to handle rough favor long hitters like DeChambeau, if his approach play hasn`t improved (even with new irons this week), it`s possible he might come close but not secure the win again.

What can we expect from Oakmont`s course conditions this week?

Mark Schlabach hopes the course is exceptionally challenging, perhaps leading to high scores. He points out that the last six U.S. Open champions all finished at 6 under par or better, with a combined score of 47 under par, which he feels deviates from the traditional demanding nature of the U.S. Open.

Two-time major winner Xander Schauffele echoed this sentiment, suggesting viewers tune into the U.S. Open not to see straightforward shots, but rather to witness players struggling and potentially shooting high scores. He feels this difficulty is part of the appeal for both players and the audience.

Schlabach observed the course conditions on Monday, noting the USGA`s plan for 5-inch rough, which was thick and lush. Recent wet weather was expected to give way to clear, hot conditions through Friday, likely drying out the course significantly.

He humorously noted the grounds crew appearing to `mow` the rough, suspecting they were merely working to dry and fluff it up. Justin Thomas commented on the required approach: “It demands patience and strict discipline… Any lapse – in driving, wedge play, chipping, or putting – can quickly lead to mistakes, especially on a course like this.”

According to forecasts, the greens are expected to become firm and exceptionally fast, potentially quicker than any other greens this season apart from Augusta National. Schauffele remarked that a winning score around par is desired by the organizers, and suggested the Oakmont members, who are very proud of their course, would prefer a winning score over par.

Paolo Uggetti takes a different view, acknowledging Oakmont`s difficulty (evident from its scale and pristine condition) but arguing that we underestimate the skill level of modern players and the advancements in golf technology, even compared to the last time the U.S. Open was held there in 2016.

The evolution of the sport, including modern drivers and an increased focus on power, speed, and skill, has produced players like DeChambeau, McIlroy, and several talented amateurs capable of hitting the ball prodigious distances. While Oakmont demands finesse beyond just length, challenging players through its complex design, Uggetti believes the overall standard of play and the USGA`s approach to course setup make an over-par winning score unlikely.

Oakmont will certainly be a tough test, but not an insurmountable one for the elite players competing.

Suggest a potential dark horse candidate to contend or win this week.

Mark Schlabach suggests Harris English as a dark horse, especially given his 100-1 odds. English recently achieved his best major finish and has been consistently performing well, securing top-12 finishes in his last four significant events, including T12 at the Masters, 10th at the Truist Championship, 2nd at the PGA Championship, and T12 at the Memorial. He also boasts a solid history at the U.S. Open with three top-eight results in his last five appearances. Schlabach believes English`s accuracy off the tee, reliable approach play, and strong putting make him a viable contender.

Paolo Uggetti proposes Keegan Bradley, who is currently listed at 90-1 odds. Uggetti wouldn`t be entirely surprised to see Bradley near the top of the leaderboard by the weekend. Data Golf analysis rates the U.S. Ryder Cup captain within the top 15 players suited for this course, largely due to his tee shot accuracy. This season, Bradley ranks in the top 20 globally for strokes gained off the tee and top 15 for strokes gained approach, a combination Uggetti believes positions him well to perform strongly at Oakmont and potentially fuel discussion about him being a playing captain at Bethpage.