Lamine Yamal might not yet be the undisputed best player globally, but the mere fact this is a topic of discussion for someone under 18 speaks volumes about his incredible talent. With the crucial final phase of the season approaching, Yamal is rapidly establishing himself as a potential successor to the mantle of football`s top star in the post-Lionel Messi era.
Regardless of age, Yamal`s statistical output this season is extraordinarily impressive. In La Liga particularly, he stands out as a top performer. His 12 assists lead his closest teammate Raphinha by three, and he also holds an edge in expected assisted goals (xAG), a metric reflecting the quality of scoring chances he creates. When it comes to delivering the ball into the most threatening areas of the pitch, no one matches Yamal`s frequency. He`s completed 83 passes into the penalty area, significantly more than Pedri`s 68 in second place. He also leads the league in goal-creating and shot-creating actions, among numerous other key offensive metrics.
In essence, the 17-year-old has been the most effective creative force in Spain`s top division this campaign.
A compelling case can also be made regarding his ball progression abilities. Yamal is fundamental in moving Barcelona forward into positions where he can execute his dazzling plays, leading La Liga in successful take-ons and ranking second only to Vinicius Junior in both progressive carries and carries into the penalty area.
While advanced statistics enthusiasts are excited by Yamal consistently ranking in the 99th percentile across so many categories, what truly astonishes most onlookers are the moments that defy his youth. It often feels like the youngster from Rocafonda has somehow absorbed decades of football history, instinctively knowing the right decision without undergoing the typical trial-and-error learning process. He often seems to bypass the stage where most young players consistently make the wrong choice.
Take his goal that added to Borussia Dortmund`s woes in Barcelona`s commanding 4-0 victory in the Champions League quarterfinal first leg earlier this month. Put through by Raphinha, he seemed to instantly recognize that his slightly heavy first touch would invite a challenge from Ramy Bensebaini. There wasn`t time to stop and shoot directly, and pushing the ball wide would narrow the angle and slow the attack.
In less time than it took you to read that description, Yamal arrived at the optimal solution: a delicate toe-poke, diverting the ball with such precision that goalkeeper Gregor Kobel could only watch in admiration. Again, achieved by a 17-year-old.
Then there are the array of perfectly weighted chips towards the far post and innovative outside-of-the-boot crosses. A standout example is a stunning 40-yard delivery that set up Raphinha for a prime scoring chance. There are many more such moments, often delivered at full speed down the flank. There are experienced professional players who have never executed the kind of cross-field ball-striking Yamal produces routinely. This ability also reflects a rapidly developing understanding of opponent weaknesses and how to exploit them. Recalling *that* goal from the Euro 2024 semifinal, if he`s denied space to shoot directly and guided down the touchline, he still finds a way to leverage his stronger foot effectively.
Given all this, one might wonder what is holding back his Ballon d`Or credentials right now. For the moment, it`s primarily his goal tally relative to his shot volume. A return of 14 goals from 47 appearances in all competitions is certainly respectable, especially coupled with 22 assists. However, his shot selection is the main area where his youth is still evident. He exhibits a tendency common among young wingers to shoot from nearly anywhere (again… Euro 2024… you understand why he has confidence!), resulting in many attempts that are, let`s say, optimistic. The graphic below illustrating his shots shows a high density of small red dots, indicating low-probability efforts.
There`s every reason to believe that a player of his composure and rapid learning capacity will soon refine this aspect of his game. Most coaches agree that it`s considerably easier to coach players *out* of taking poor shots than to instill the willingness to shoot in the first place. And with 4.19 shots per 90 minutes (valued at 0.31 xG), Yamal certainly doesn`t need encouragement to pull the trigger.
A slight increase in goal efficiency and a reduction in low-percentage shots are perhaps the only significant steps remaining for Yamal to transform into a genuinely elite, potentially best-in-the-world attacker. This transition could realistically be completed before he even reaches his twenties. All of this naturally leads to the comparisons that will increasingly be made: How does he measure up against the all-time greats at the same age? Was he better than Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo were at 17?
The answer remains uncertain. In his age-17 season, Messi was a peripheral figure in Frank Rijkaard`s dominant Barcelona side. Cristiano Ronaldo didn`t turn 18 until he caught the attention of Sir Alex Ferguson. Even players who broke through early like Kylian Mbappe and Wayne Rooney were, at best, showing glimpses of their potential at this age. By the time Yamal celebrates his 18th birthday in July, he could have amassed around 5,000 minutes in La Liga, played 24 Champions League matches, potentially won La Liga and Champions League titles, adding to possible honors from Euro 2024. This volume of senior football at 17 is almost unprecedented among recent greats.
To find players who achieved anything truly comparable to Yamal at such a remarkably young age, you would likely need to delve into the early careers of legendary South American stars. Ronaldo Nazario was tearing apart defenses for Cruzeiro, Diego Maradona was earning the moniker El Pibe de Oro (The Golden Boy), and Pele was setting records in major tournaments that Yamal`s feats might one day be compared to.
It will, of course, take nearly two decades to gain true perspective on whether Yamal ultimately belongs in the same historical discussion as those mentioned above. While their careers were outstanding, the trajectories of players like Rooney and, to some extent, the Brazilian Ronaldo, serve as cautionary tales about the potential challenges that even a player with immense early promise might face. This doesn`t even consider the physical demands that accumulating so many high-level minutes at such an early age can place on a developing body.
Being on the cusp of being considered the world`s best player at just 17 is a monumental achievement; maintaining that elite status consistently for a decade and a half, as the true greats did, is an entirely different challenge. Fortunately, Lamine Yamal has plenty of time on his side.