Fri. Jan 2nd, 2026

Makhachev’s 170 lb Calculus: Why Morales and Usman Are the Strategic Imperatives

Technical Analysis: While the original source material erroneously designates Islam Makhachev as the current UFC Welterweight Champion, he currently holds the Lightweight (155 lb) title. His comments, however, explicitly address the strategic landscape of the Welterweight (170 lb) division, indicating a clear, targeted move toward becoming a two-division champion.

Islam Makhachev, the dominant force atop the UFC Lightweight division, has formally articulated his criteria for entry into the highly competitive Welterweight division. His recent statements confirm that a move to 170 lbs is not merely aspirational but a strategic calculation, focusing on opponents who offer both technical merit and undisputed momentum. Makhachev’s approach reveals a calculated avoidance of recycled matchups and a preference for establishing new statistical milestones.

The Criteria for Exclusion: Filtering the Contendership

Before naming his preferred targets, Makhachev efficiently dismissed several established and rising figures in the welterweight hierarchy. This process is crucial; it demonstrates a fighter seeking specific narrative challenges, not simply easy title defenses or high-profile rematches. His technical assessment of the 170 lb landscape is remarkably pointed:

  • Ian Garry and Vicente Luque: Opponents like Luque, who recently secured a decision win over Prates, and Ian Garry, are viewed through the lens of recent losses within the division’s ecosystem. According to Makhachev’s calculus, Garry’s loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov previously negates the immediate appeal of that matchup for a debut title shot. The champion is seeking a clean opponent with maximum upside.
  • Shavkat Rakhmonov (The Future Factor): Makhachev acknowledges the formidable nature of the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov, yet strategically reserves him for a later phase. His assessment is that Rakhmonov, despite his unbeaten record, may not currently possess the necessary consensus to immediately jump the queue for a title shot. This statement serves to manage expectations while keeping Rakhmonov as the ultimate, long-term threat.

In essence, Makhachev is seeking the highest statistical and promotional value available, eliminating anyone who carries a recent, relevant divisional loss.

Target One: Michael Morales — The Undefeated Metric

Makhachev’s first nominated target is the rising Ecuadorian talent, Michael Morales. Morales represents the ideal technical opponent for a champion looking to validate a division change: the pristine, 16-0 undefeated record.

Selecting an undefeated fighter for a potential divisional debut minimizes risk of being accused of taking an easy fight, while maximizing the narrative return on investment. The logic is straightforward: defeating an opponent with a perfect record offers a clear, quantifiable metric of success at a higher weight class. Morales is not yet a household name, but his flawless technical sheet makes him, ironically, a perfect strategic target.

Target Two: Kamaru Usman — The Legacy Challenge

The second nomination provides the necessary counter-balance to the unproven prospect: former champion Kamaru Usman. Usman, while currently experiencing a plateau in his career trajectory, remains one of the division’s greatest historical figures. This selection satisfies the commercial requirement of a major promotional event.

Makhachev referred to Usman as currently “doing well,” a statement that carries a dose of pragmatic irony considering Usman’s recent setbacks against Leon Edwards. However, a victory over a legendary figure like Usman provides immediate and undeniable legitimacy to Makhachev`s move into the 170 lb category, regardless of Usman’s current status. It is a calculated move to borrow institutional power and legacy from a former great. For Makhachev, this fight is less about divisional rankings and more about historical statement.

Conclusion: The Blueprint for Dual-Division Dominance

Makhachev’s targeted approach underscores a profound understanding of the business of mixed martial arts championship contention. He has defined two distinct paths toward welterweight supremacy, both optimized for maximum narrative and technical gain:

  1. The Prospect Route (Morales): Securing a win over an unbeaten record validates his power and skill at 170 lbs.
  2. The Veteran Route (Usman): Securing a win over a recognized legend provides instant historical credentials.

The champion`s focus is currently fixed on the most impactful opponents available, utilizing a stringent screening process that places strategic value ahead of simple rankings. The countdown to Makhachev’s full-time residency at 170 lbs appears to be defined by these two specific, high-leverage challenges.

By Adrian Whitmore

Adrian Whitmore, 41, brings over fifteen years of experience covering tennis and golf tournaments from his base in Liverpool. His distinctive storytelling approach combines statistical analysis with behind-the-scenes insights.

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