Is Manchester City`s Champions League spot next season truly guaranteed? Ignoring the ongoing 115 charges, their recent goalless draw against Manchester United at Old Trafford was far from convincing. If they repeat such performances in their remaining games, both Newcastle United and Aston Villa could overtake the reigning champions in the league table.
Despite their usual dominance in possession, City, playing without Erling Haaland, only managed nine shots with a combined expected goals (xG) of just 0.49. This is their third-lowest attacking output under Pep Guardiola in the Premier League. Unlike previous poor performances against West Ham and Arsenal which could be seen as isolated incidents against strong teams, this draw highlights a deeper issue. City`s tactical setup is clearly designed to utilize Haaland`s strengths, and without him, they appeared lost and lacking direction in attack.
While City maintained control outside of the penalty box, evidenced by completing 224 passes in United`s half compared to United`s 64 in City`s half, this dominance didn`t translate to dangerous opportunities. Interestingly, within the penalty area itself, United actually had slightly more possessions than City (13 to 10).
City`s control was sterile, lacking any real threat. United effectively stifled City`s attacks by deploying a compact 5-4-1 defensive formation, limiting the space between their defensive line and striker Rasmus Hojlund. However, this type of defensive challenge is not new to City; they have faced and overcome such tactics for years. They used to excel at breaking down these defensive blocks, and more recently, they have relied on Haaland to overpower defenses.
A team built to feed Haaland seemed clueless without their main striker. Kevin De Bruyne returned to a more advanced role reminiscent of pre-Haaland days, but for this to be effective, he needed supporting runs and threats inside the box. Phil Foden, while occasionally bright, couldn`t consistently provide that threat, and experienced players like Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva lack the stamina to constantly make penetrating runs into the penalty area.
Phil Foden has had ample opportunities to prove he can be the consistent goal-scoring threat he was last season. Many believe he should be the player to step up and fill the void left by De Bruyne in the future. That time is now, but Foden still seems more comfortable playing on the fringes of the game. Despite being the current PFA Player of the Year, his impact in crucial, high-stakes matches, like Sunday`s game, remains questionable compared to what Guardiola needs from him.
City needed Foden to step up in Haaland`s absence, but he failed to capitalize on a good chance early in the second half, and offered little else.
If any team looked like breaking the deadlock in this dull match, it was United. They focused on rapid counter-attacks, often launching them from their own penalty area towards City`s goal. They came close to scoring on several occasions, notably through an Alejandro Garnacho break that led to a dangerous free kick. A better connection from Garnacho or a shot from Patrick Dorgu or Joshua Zirkzee could have changed the game.
Bruno Fernandes was central to United`s best attacking play. He injected life into their attacks, consistently delivering perfectly timed passes that threatened City`s defense. He led United in final third entries, chance creation, and ball recoveries. Across both teams, he was the player who showed the most desire to push for a win.
Given City`s current situation, their lack of urgency is surprising. Aston Villa gained points this weekend and are in excellent form. Newcastle, with two games in hand, could overtake City in the top five if they win just one. With Haaland and Rodri back in the team, City would be strong favorites in their remaining seven games. However, their return isn`t imminent, and if City continue to perform like this for the next month and a half, their Champions League qualification could be in serious jeopardy.
Adrian Whitmore