The NHL playoff races are far from decided, with seeding within divisions and wild-card spots still up for grabs.

Once the 16 postseason spots are secured, the focus will shift to who will contend for the Stanley Cup.

This NHL Bubble Watch provides a monthly update on the Stanley Cup playoff races, utilizing playoff probabilities and points projections from Stathletes for all 32 teams. It also identifies teams already out of contention.

This month, we also examine Stanley Cup championship probabilities from Stathletes, highlighting teams with the best chances of winning the Cup if they qualify for the playoffs.

First, let`s look at the projected playoff bracket:

Projected playoff bracket

Note: Projected point totals via Stathletes.

Eastern Conference

M1 Washington Capitals (117.6) vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens (88.0)
M2 Carolina Hurricanes (106.6) vs. M3 New Jersey Devils (92.5)

A1 Tampa Bay Lightning (102.4) vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators (95.1)
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs (102.0) vs. A3 Florida Panthers (102.0)

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets (114.1) vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues (93.5)
C2 Dallas Stars (108.8) vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche (104.0)

P1 Vegas Golden Knights (108.4) vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild (97.1)
P2 Los Angeles Kings (102.8) vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers (100.2)

ATLANTIC DIVISION

The locks

Florida Panthers

Record: 43-25-3, 89 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Panthers are dealing with injuries to key players as the regular season concludes. They are aiming for a third consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance, a feat last achieved by the Lightning from 2019-21.

Stanley Cup win chances: 3.7%. Stathletes ranks the Panthers 10th in Stanley Cup win probability (8%).

Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 40-25-5, 85 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Lightning are once again a top offensive team, spearheaded by Nikita Kucherov, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is performing at his peak. Stathletes gives them the best chance to win the Atlantic Division.

Stanley Cup win chances: 13.0%. Tampa Bay is third in Stanley Cup win probability, boasting a roster of seasoned playoff performers.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 42-25-3, 87 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

For the Maple Leafs, the regular season is about playoff qualification. Their postseason performance remains the key focus. They are looking to break their Stanley Cup drought since 1967.

Stanley Cup win chances: 5.6%. The Maple Leafs have an 11% chance of winning the Eastern Conference, the fourth-highest among East teams. The question remains whether their goaltending can lead them to the championship round for the first time since 2002.

Ottawa Senators

Record: 37-27-5, 79 points
Playoff chances: 98.2%

The Ottawa Senators have solidified their playoff spot after a strong run. Goaltender Linus Ullmark and trade deadline acquisition Dylan Cozens have been instrumental in their success.

Stanley Cup win chances: 2.2%. Ottawa`s last playoff appearance was also their last trip to the Eastern Conference finals in 2016-17.

Work to do

Montreal Canadiens

Record: 33-27-9, 75 points
Playoff chances: 48.8%

The Canadiens have surged into playoff contention after a strong stretch of games. They are aiming to be a tough first-round matchup as an unexpected contender.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.9%. Stathletes gives the Canadiens a low chance of advancing past the first round (13%) and winning the Stanley Cup.

Long shots at best

Detroit Red Wings

Record: 33-31-6, 72 points
Playoff chances: 3.0%

The Red Wings` playoff hopes have diminished after a poor run of form, potentially extending their playoff drought beyond 2016.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. The odds are heavily against the Red Wings making a significant playoff impact if they qualify.

Lottery-bound

Boston Bruins

Record: 30-33-9, 69 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%

The Bruins` season has declined significantly, and they are now considered lottery-bound.

Buffalo Sabres

Record: 28-35-6, 62 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

The Sabres` playoff drought will continue, and their fans will be focused on the draft lottery.

METRO DIVISION

The locks

Washington Capitals

Record: 47-15-8, 102 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Capitals have secured a playoff spot early, exceeding expectations for the season. Their success story complements Alex Ovechkin`s pursuit of goal records.

Stanley Cup win chances: 9.8%. The Capitals have strong Stanley Cup odds, despite the Presidents` Trophy winner`s recent struggles.

Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 43-23-4, 90 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Hurricanes continue their consistent performance, excelling in puck possession, offense, defense, and penalty killing. The question remains if they can overcome playoff hurdles.

Stanley Cup win chances: 14.0%. Stathletes ranks the Hurricanes highly in Stanley Cup Final and Stanley Cup win probabilities.

New Jersey Devils

Record: 37-28-7, 81 points
Playoff chances: 94.6%

The Devils are facing challenges with key injuries and inconsistent goaltending as they aim to maintain their playoff position.

Stanley Cup win chances: 1.0%. Without Jack Hughes and with defensive issues, the Devils face long odds to win the Stanley Cup.

Work to do

New York Islanders

Record: 32-28-10, 74 points
Playoff chances: 28.0%

The Islanders are relying on Ilya Sorokin`s strong goaltending as they push for a wild-card spot, facing a tough schedule.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.4%. The Islanders face unfavorable odds for a deep playoff run.

New York Rangers

Record: 34-31-6, 74 points
Playoff chances: 17.9%

The Rangers are struggling for consistency and momentum as they chase a playoff spot.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.3%. Despite past playoff success, the Rangers face low probabilities for a deep run this season.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 32-29-9, 73 points
Playoff chances: 9.4%

The Blue Jackets have struggled after a promising period, facing challenges in scoring and consistency.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. The Blue Jackets are a long shot for playoff success, but could defy odds under emotional circumstances.

Long shots at best

Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 29-32-11, 69 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%

The Penguins have a slim mathematical chance for playoffs, showing recent improvement, but face very long odds.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. Pittsburgh`s chances of playoff success are extremely low, despite their veteran core.

Lottery-bound

Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 28-35-9, 65 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

The Flyers` poor goaltending and recent struggles have placed them firmly in the lottery-bound category.

CENTRAL DIVISION

The locks

Winnipeg Jets

Record: 48-19-4, 100 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Jets are a top defensive and offensive team, with Connor Hellebuyck in MVP form, making them strong contenders despite occasional baffling losses.

Stanley Cup win chances: 6.5%. The Jets have good Stanley Cup odds, aiming to overcome past first-round playoff exits.

Dallas Stars

Record: 45-21-4, 94 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Stars, strengthened by Mikko Rantanen, are aiming for their first Stanley Cup Final since 2020, but face injury concerns and a tough first-round matchup.

Stanley Cup win chances: 3.0%. The Stars face challenges with seeding and injuries, impacting their Stanley Cup win probability.

Colorado Avalanche

Record: 43-25-3, 89 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Avalanche have surged into near playoff certainty, with Nathan MacKinnon in Hart Trophy contention and successful trade deadline moves boosting their strength.

Stanley Cup win chances: 12.0%. The Avalanche have strong Stanley Cup odds, especially if they navigate a tough first round.

Minnesota Wild

Record: 40-26-5, 85 points
Playoff chances: 96.8%

The Wild, despite injuries to key players like Kirill Kaprizov, have maintained a playoff position, showcasing strong coaching and resilience.

Stanley Cup win chances: 1.0%. The Wild are not yet seen as Stanley Cup contenders, even at full strength, but could be a challenging playoff opponent.

Work to do

St. Louis Blues

Record: 37-28-7, 81 points
Playoff chances: 71.1%

The Blues have dramatically improved their playoff chances with a strong run of form, led by solid offense and goaltending.

Stanley Cup win chances: 4.6%. The Blues have decent odds to advance past the first round and longer odds for the Stanley Cup, reminiscent of their 2019 championship season.

Utah Hockey Club

Record: 32-28-11, 75 points
Playoff chances: 13.3%

Utah is surprisingly in the playoff race, with young stars and strong goaltending, making their first NHL season in Salt Lake City exciting.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.7%. Playoff hockey in Salt Lake City would be exciting, but Stanley Cup contention is a longer-term prospect.

Lottery-bound

Nashville Predators

Record: 26-36-8, 60 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

The Predators are predicted to finish low in the standings after a disappointing season and will reassess their strategy.

Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 21-41-9, 51 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

The Blackhawks are in a race to the bottom with the Sharks for the best lottery odds.

PACIFIC DIVISION

The locks

Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 42-20-8, 92 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Golden Knights have led the Pacific Division despite injuries, showcasing strength in both offense and defense, and are considered top Stanley Cup contenders.

Stanley Cup win chances: 14.3%. Stathletes ranks the Golden Knights as having the highest probability of winning the Stanley Cup this season.

Los Angeles Kings

Record: 39-21-9, 87 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Kings have been consistently strong defensively, with a resurgent Darcy Kuemper, and are aiming to advance past the first round of the playoffs after several attempts.

Stanley Cup win chances: 4.6%. The Kings have a good chance of reaching the second round, with home ice advantage being a significant factor.

Edmonton Oilers

Record: 41-24-5, 87 points
Playoff chances: 99.5%

The Oilers are secure in the top three of the Pacific Division, relying on the star power of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, despite some defensive inconsistencies.

Stanley Cup win chances: 1.9%. Despite reaching the conference finals last season, the Oilers have surprisingly low Stanley Cup win probability this year.

Work to do

Calgary Flames

Record: 33-25-11, 77 points
Playoff chances: 10.6%

The Flames are making a push for a wild-card spot, with rookie Dustin Wolf playing exceptionally well, but face a tough battle to qualify.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. Playoff qualification itself would be a significant achievement for the Flames, with Stanley Cup contention being a secondary goal.

Vancouver Canucks

Record: 33-26-12, 78 points
Playoff chances: 8.9%

The Canucks have faced a chaotic season with numerous challenges, yet still have a slim chance at the playoffs, which would be a remarkable achievement.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. Stanley Cup victory would be highly improbable for the Canucks given their season`s turmoil.

Lottery-bound

Anaheim Ducks

Record: 30-32-8, 68 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%

The Ducks` faint playoff hopes have faded, and they are struggling offensively.

Seattle Kraken

Record: 30-36-5, 65 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

The Kraken`s season is disappointing, falling short of playoff contention and lacking strong lottery odds, placing them in a mediocre position.

San Jose Sharks

Record: 19-42-9, 47 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

The Sharks are competing with the Blackhawks for the league`s worst record and best lottery odds, facing a difficult remaining schedule.