The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs begin Saturday after a riveting playoff race in both conferences. How lucky we are to have the Battle of Ontario, the Battle of Florida, the Mikko Rantanen Bowl and Round 4 of Kings-Oilers in the first round.
Many years, the initial round of the playoffs seems to produce the highest quality of series, since it is before teams lose players to injury. This year, there are real rivalries and intrigue right off the hop.
Every team has a chance to win it all, but not every team is a true contender. Then, there are the teams who are contenders on paper but have a habit of folding in the playoffs — looking at you, Toronto and Winnipeg.
The common denominator is that every team has a fatal flaw — an issue that could be its undoing. The positive? The team that best mitigates its fatal flaw and gets some luck is likely to lift the Stanley Cup in June. Here`s a look at those major flaws for the 12 top contenders.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Editor`s Picks
-
Keys to the NHL offseason: Free agency and draft plans for Rangers, Bruins, every other eliminated team
-
`I know how badly they want to win`: How the Senators grew into being a playoff team
-
Meet the Wild`s secret weapon — who won`t play a single minute this season
The Caps had the best 5-on-5 shooting percentage this season, converting on 10.69% of their shots. That would explain the significant increase in production by quite a few of their offensive players. Looking deeper, the Caps scored slightly more per game (2.71) than they gave up (2.50) at 5-on-5.
According to Sportlogiq, Washington gained many of its standing points impact through finishing and goaltending. History shows that those two things are the most volatile in the playoffs. Neither Logan Thompson nor Charlie Lindgren has significant playoff experience, and while it should be enough to see them through the first round, the Capitals` fatal flaw is that their shooting luck can dry up at the worst possible time, and their goaltenders have been inconsistent of late.
The Caps are a good team, but their underlying numbers suggest they may not be good enough to withstand a shooting regression in the later rounds.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Seed: Atlantic No. 1
The Maple Leafs are in the contender category because they finished atop the Atlantic Division, not because they`ve had any recent playoff success. (They haven`t.) On paper, the Leafs have excellent goaltending and strong defense and play a system that is more conducive to playoff success. The Leafs won their division with (relatively) down seasons from Auston Matthews and Morgan Rielly, but more staunch defending as a group.
None of that matters when the playoffs get underway. The Leafs` fatal flaw has been the same for nearly a decade: the demons. For more than a few seasons, the Leafs have been the better team heading into their first-round matchup, and then their offense dries up, their goaltenders get outplayed and the end-of-season news conference happens before May.
The Leafs play a more boring brand of hockey with Craig Berube behind the bench: better defending, tighter checking and an offense structured around net-front play. But now they must also battle the demons within. Their best players are some of the best in the world. When those players perform at their peak, they are Toronto`s greatest strength. When they get outperformed, they are Toronto`s biggest flaw.
Breaking News from Emily Kaplan
Download the ESPN app and enable Emily Kaplan`s news alerts to receive push notifications for the latest updates first. Opt in by tapping the alerts bell in the top right corner. For more information, click here.
The Panthers` biggest flaw is their revolving-door lineup. Florida was decimated with injuries to key players down the stretch, and while those players are going to be available for the playoffs, it is unlikely they will be completely healthy.
Florida needs Aleksander Barkov to compete with other teams in the division, and it needs Matthew Tkachuk for his scoring and general roughhousing. There is no shortage of that on the roster with Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand, but can the Panthers stay disciplined enough to remain effective? How will Aaron Ekblad play after returning from his extended performance-enhancing substance suspension?
The playoffs are about feel, and there is a real chance that important players missing significant time hurts the continuity of the roster. Of all the problems to have, this is the best one. When healthy and firing on all cylinders, Florida is the best team in the East. There isn`t a weak spot in the lineup. If the Panthers can find their groove and endure, they might find themselves playing in June for the third straight year.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Unfortunately, Winnipeg`s major flaw is the same as it has been for a few years now: its Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender come playoff time. Connor Hellebuyck is going to win his second consecutive Vezina, but there is a reason the NHLPA poll did not have him ranked as the league`s top goaltender. The players ranked Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin ahead of Hellebuyck, which is likely a result of their past success in the playoffs.
Hellebuyck recorded just two playoff wins in the past two seasons, has a save percentage of .874 and allowed 9.8 more goals than expected in that span. He isn`t the only reason the Jets lost in the first round in consecutive seasons, but he was a significant part of the problem. When Hellebuyck is at his best, he is nearly unbeatable. The problem is, his best comes in the regular season, not in the playoffs.
The Jets have multiple players who have had career seasons: Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor up front, and Josh Morrissey in the Norris Trophy conversation on defense. Combined with Hellebuyck, the Jets should be a Cup favorite. If the Jets are going to make the Western Conference finals, they need two things to be true: Hellebuyck must play at Vezina level, and their depth must be able to match up against teams with more offensive talent at the center position.
Vegas Golden Knights
Seed: Pacific No. 1
The Golden Knights are atop the Pacific, and for the first time in years, no one is hollering about long-term injured reserve shenanigans.
By Adrian Whitmore
Adrian Whitmore, 41, brings over fifteen years of experience covering tennis and golf tournaments from his base in Liverpool. His distinctive storytelling approach combines statistical analysis with behind-the-scenes insights.
Rupert Hartwell