The 2024-25 NHL regular season has been quite a journey, featuring the rise of unexpected Stanley Cup and MVP contenders, an exciting 4 Nations Face-Off, major trades, impressive winning streaks, and recently, Alex Ovechkin surpassing Wayne Gretzky`s record for career NHL goals.

However, the true hockey season begins on April 19th with the start of the Stanley Cup playoffs. This is when the intensity and physical play we`ve come to expect emerge as teams compete for the Cup.

And with it comes pressure. A significant amount of pressure.

To assess the pressure on each team to win the Cup this year, I developed the Urgency Index. This index grades each playoff team on a scale of 0-10 (relative to other playoff teams) across categories that represent reasons why they need to win now:

— Contender status (based on Elo rating odds to win the Cup)

— Market pressure (combining fanbase and market size)

— Franchise`s current Cup drought

— Recent playoff disappointments (total postseason wins over the last five years without a Cup)

— Average roster age (older age equals more pressure)

— Contract urgency (average remaining years on contracts for the team`s top three players by goals above replacement before free agency).

Since some factors create more urgency than others, contender status, team age, and market pressure are double-weighted, while contract urgency is half-weighted (as teams can often extend star players if necessary). These weighted totals are combined to create a ranking of playoff teams with the most pressure to win a championship this season.

More: ESPN`s Stanley Cup playoff watch

Jump to a team:
Carolina | Dallas | Edmonton
Los Angeles | Minnesota | Tampa Bay
Toronto | Winnipeg | 8 more teams


1. Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers` chances for the Cup have decreased recently, causing their contender rating to drop—though they are still tied for fifth in ESPN BET`s odds. However, they would still rank first on the Urgency Index. They have the oldest playoff roster in the league, aiming for the first titles for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in a passionate hockey market, haven`t won a Cup since 1990, and are coming off a Game 7 Finals loss last season.

Adding to this, the Oilers need to negotiate contract extensions for McDavid and Evan Bouchard soon. Edmonton represents a franchise at its peak contending moment. If not this season, when will they finally win?

Playoff outlook: As likely third in the Pacific, Edmonton will face a familiar opponent in the first round: the Los Angeles Kings, whom they have defeated in the past three seasons.

The good news ends there. The Oilers are dealing with injuries to McDavid and Draisaitl, and their 46.2% win rate against strong teams is lower than other top contenders. Another season of McDavid`s prime derailed at the end would be disappointing.

2. (tie) Dallas Stars

The Stars earn their place on this list due to the significant deadline trade for Mikko Rantanen from Carolina, and their consistent playoff presence without reaching the finals since 2020. Despite that finals appearance, they had the third-most playoff wins (45) from 2019 to 2024 without a championship.

Being the 12th youngest team in the league, with young talents like Jake Oettinger, Jason Robertson, and Thomas Harley, they have a long future. (However, Robertson and Harley need new contracts after 2025-26, and Jamie Benn`s contract is up this summer.) After two conference finals losses, Dallas might not find a better Cup opportunity than now.

Playoff outlook: Dallas is competing with Winnipeg for the Central Division and Western Conference top seed, which is crucial. It means the difference between playing a wild-card team (St. Louis or Minnesota) as favorites and facing Colorado in Round 1.

Metrics like Elo ratings and SRS suggest Dallas is better than Colorado, but the possibility of an early exit intensifies the pressure in Dallas.

2. (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs

Is there ever not immense pressure on the Leafs to win the Cup? Toronto hasn`t had a championship parade since 1967. Combined with Toronto`s market size and passionate fanbase, they lead in `Cup drought` and `market pressure`.

Mitigating factors include a relatively young team with future chances, and fans` tempered expectations due to past disappointments. However, Mitch Marner`s contract situation adds urgency to win now.

Playoff outlook: Likely the No. 2 seed in the East, Toronto is expected to face Ottawa in the first round. They should be favored, and improved balance might offer a higher postseason ceiling than usual.

But it`s the Leafs. The pressure isn`t just to win, but to escape the franchise`s historical shadow of disappointment.

4. Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg has a top chance to win this season. Despite questions about a deep playoff run (one playoff round win since 2018 conference finals), the Jets are poised to win the Cup, with the league`s top SRS driven by goalie Connor Hellebuyck.

Their system might underrate them. Their Cup drought uses the Jets franchise history including Atlanta Thrashers, not just the original Jets/Utah Hockey Club/Coyotes. Winnipeg`s small market size is also a factor, but fan support for a Canadian Cup win is significant.

Playoff outlook: If they hold off Dallas in the Central, they will face Minnesota in Round 1—a favorable matchup. But the West is tough afterward.

Unlike Edmonton, the Jets have the best win percentage against good teams (73.8%) this season.

5. Los Angeles Kings

There is urgency when facing the same playoff opponent repeatedly. For the Kings in 2025, it`s about overcoming the Oilers. (The `recent frustration` category is limited here, as losses to the same team early prevent racking up playoff wins.)

Beyond Edmonton, the Kings face core uncertainties after next season, including Anze Kopitar`s era, and play in the second-largest NHL market. Their recent resurgence needs to translate to playoff success soon.

Playoff outlook: The immediate issue is overcoming Edmonton. The Kings` defense is top-5, but scoring (No. 18) is a problem, despite Warren Foegele`s 20-goal season.

Hope for a breakthrough against Edmonton lies in entering playoffs in better form than last year.

6. Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina is similar to Dallas: talented, consistently seeking a Cup breakthrough. The Rantanen trade deepened this connection. Surprisingly, Carolina`s urgency index is lower than Dallas`. They are similar in contender status and playoff frustration: 38 playoff wins from 2018-19 to 2023-24 without a finals trip, and an older roster (7th oldest).

Raleigh`s smaller market reduces pressure, despite strong attendance. Former GM Don Waddell and successor Eric Tulsky reduced contract urgency by securing Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and others for at least two more seasons after 2024-25.

Playoff outlook: Carolina faces New Jersey in Round 1, a team with injuries but a No. 4 ranked defense.

Carolina is favored if they control puck possession. Another conference finals trip is possible, along with the associated urgency.

7. (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay`s ranking is largely due to being the fourth-oldest team. Despite additions since their three straight Cup Finals (2020-22), their core remains from those years.

Tampa Bay is powered by Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, etc. This reliance creates urgency to win while this core is still together and productive.

Playoff outlook: The Battle of Florida is a recurring playoff rivalry. Florida is defending champion, but Tampa Bay has better goal differential, Elo rating, and health.

Unless Florida`s key players return strong, Tampa Bay`s early playoff outlook is positive.

7. (tie) Minnesota Wild

The Wild rarely have high Cup expectations, but they are under pressure. Despite a low Final chance, they score high on other urgency factors. They are the 8th oldest team and need to address contracts for key players like Gustavsson, Kaprizov, and Rossi.

Pressure builds in hockey-mad Minnesota for postseason success. In 23 seasons, they`ve won only four playoff series, half in 2003. Success is overdue.

Playoff outlook: Success in 2025 is unlikely. Expected to be a wild-card team, they`ll likely face Jets or Stars in Round 1 as underdogs. Kaprizov is injured and will need to recover quickly.

Deep playoff run expectations are low, but winning a playoff series is a pressing need.

Ranking the Rest

Washington`s unexpected season creates Cup pressure, but their future planning reduces urgency. (Plus, they won a Cup recently.)

The list includes recent winners (Vegas, Florida, Colorado, St. Louis) and longshots. Devils and Canadiens are interesting: Devils shifted from young to older, increasing urgency; Canadiens` late surge in a big market might signal future success.