PGA Championship: Experts’ picks and betting tips

The second major championship of the year, the 2025 PGA Championship, is scheduled to be held from Thursday through Sunday at Quail Hollow Club.

Ahead of the tournament, golf experts provide their predictions on which players they believe will win, while betting analysts offer insights on where they see potential value for wagers.

Experts` picks to win

Bryson DeChambeau is seeking his first PGA Championship title.

Matt Barrie: Rory McIlroy. McIlroy is currently in excellent form (“his run”). Having completed the career Grand Slam at the Masters, he now arrives at a course where he has won four times, calling it his “playground.” Barrie expects him to win again here.

Tory Barron: Justin Thomas. Citing recent performance, Barron believes JT is poised for his third PGA Championship win. He ended a nearly three-year winless streak with a playoff win at the RBC Heritage and recently finished runner-up at the Truist Championship, giving him high confidence. He won the Wanamaker Trophy at Quail Hollow in 2017.

Michael Collins: Scottie Scheffler. Collins highlights that Scheffler is the World #1 and should not be underestimated. Despite a calm demeanor, he is a fierce competitor who will be motivated to prove doubters wrong.

Jeff Darlington: Justin Thomas. Darlington notes Thomas` improved form since October 2024, including a T2 finish at the Zozo Championship. Returning to Quail Hollow, the site of his initial PGA Championship victory, he is expected to win again.

Michael Eaves: Rory McIlroy. Winning the Masters reportedly removed a significant burden, potentially leading to the most relaxed golf McIlroy has played in years. A relaxed Rory is a formidable opponent. Given his four previous wins, he “owns” Quail Hollow.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Rory McIlroy. Sometimes the most obvious pick is the best one. With the Masters and Grand Slam pressure relieved, McIlroy has been the world`s best golfer in 2025. The course favors distance, aligning with his strengths, and he has won there four times.

Andy North: Shane Lowry. Lowry has been performing well recently. He is noted for being a strong driver and hitting excellent iron shots, which are key attributes for success.

Mark Schlabach: Bryson DeChambeau. If success at Quail Hollow requires length, solid long-iron play, and consistent putting, DeChambeau fits the profile. He will want to recover from a less-than-stellar final round at the Masters and is coming off a win in the LIV Golf League. He has four top-six finishes in the last five majors, including runner-up at the 2024 PGA Championship.

Marty Smith: Rory McIlroy. McIlroy enters having already won two major tournaments this year (Players Championship and the Masters). Years of pressure are lifted, leading to high confidence and “freedom.” He has the lowest scoring average at Quail Hollow among experienced players and has won there four times.

Curtis Strange: Rory McIlroy. He picks McIlroy to win over Scottie Scheffler by one stroke. Strange also supports the Masters champion at the PGA to fuel discussion about a potential Grand Slam.

Paolo Uggetti: Rory McIlroy. While it seems overly obvious given his recent play and success at Quail Hollow, Uggetti cannot pick anyone else. Despite the difficulty of winning back-to-back majors, his current form and course suitability make him the undeniable pick.

Scott Van Pelt: Bryson DeChambeau. Describing Quail Hollow as a “big ballpark,” especially when wet, Van Pelt believes DeChambeau`s length advantage will be amplified, leading to his victory.

Betting Roundtable

Rory McIlroy has previously won the PGA Championship twice.

Who is your pick to win?

Tyler Fulghum: Xander Schauffele (+2000). While McIlroy and Scheffler are strong contenders, their short odds make Schauffele a better value pick outside the top two. His disciplined, all-around game is suitable for a challenging, long course with deep competition.

David Gordon: Shane Lowry (+4500). Gordon argues Lowry`s odds are too high, suggesting he should be ranked higher. He is third in strokes gained: tee to green and has two top-six finishes in the last four PGA Championships.

Pamela Maldonado: Rory McIlroy (+475). Maldonado sees Quail Hollow as “his kingdom” where his powerful drives and high long irons excel. His four wins demonstrate his command of the course layout, justifying the short price as he is defending his familiar territory.

Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?

Fulghum: Patrick Reed (+550). LIV golfers often offer value in majors due to less public visibility. Reed has performed well in majors since joining LIV, including a third at Augusta and T2 at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

Gordon: Bryson DeChambeau (+140). DeChambeau leads in top-five finishes at the PGA Championship since 2020 (three) and has six top-five major finishes across different venues since then. His length benefits from Quail Hollow`s layout. Gordon takes the top-10 bet for safety, though he sees value in a top-five as well.

Maldonado: Jon Rahm (+190). Rahm`s length, precise long irons, and ability to handle pressure (like the “Green Mile” stretch) make him ideal for Quail Hollow. Even on an off day, his high baseline performance and strong approach play provide many birdie opportunities.

What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy bet?

Fulghum: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). Despite not always starting majors fast, his dominance at this course suggests he could begin strongly after his recent Masters win, playing freely.

Gordon: McIlroy over Scheffler: tournament matchup (-110). Gordon believes McIlroy has an advantage in course knowledge, length, and putting compared to Scheffler, even considering Scheffler`s recent record-tying score.

Maldonado: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). With the career Grand Slam achieved, McIlroy is described as grounded, composed, and confident. This mental clarity and comfort at Quail Hollow should allow him to play his natural game methodically and start well.

Who are your favorite long shots/value bets (100-1 or longer)?

Fulghum: Tony Finau (+12500). Although his recent form is not outstanding, his talent level combined with these high odds presents significant value, especially at the PGA Championship, which is known for unexpected winners.

Gordon: Denny McCarthy (+17500). McCarthy finished T6 at Quail Hollow last year and T8 the year before, demonstrating success here despite lacking distance. He is one of only three players with eight rounds of par or better at the course in the last two years. His putter has been hot, and he had a T5 finish at the long Torrey Pines this season.

Maldonado: Keith Mitchell (+11000). Mitchell`s recent consistency is appealing, with five straight top-20s, including T7 last week. His ball striking and tee-to-green play are strong. He has two prior top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow, suggesting value in a top-20 bet (+320), with a small wager on the long odds for an outright win.

Are there any other bets that stand out to you?

Gordon: Corey Conners to finish as low Canadian (+165). Conners has won this market in four of the last five majors and six of the last eight, including being the low Canadian twice at the PGA Championship during that time. He has five top-10 finishes this season and placed T13 and T8 in the last two years at Quail Hollow.

Maldonado: Justin Thomas (-120) vs. Xander Schauffele. Maldonado favors Thomas due to his winning experience at Quail Hollow and stronger iron play compared to Schauffele. On a course rewarding iron shots, JT`s consistent tee-to-green game is seen as the deciding factor in this matchup.