Premier League Race for Champions League Spots: Can Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle Hold Off a Crowded Field?

The Premier League season is nearing its end, with only nine matchdays remaining. While some outcomes seem almost certain – Liverpool likely to be champions and the promoted teams facing relegation – the fight for Champions League qualification is heating up. With Liverpool and Arsenal seemingly taking the top two spots, a fascinating contest is developing for the remaining Champions League places.

Currently, up to eight teams could realistically believe they have a chance. Nottingham Forest holds a surprising third place, but questions remain about whether their position reflects their overall performance. Chelsea, in fourth, have shown flashes of brilliance but inconsistently. Manchester City, in fifth, also haven`t always been at their peak.

Newcastle, buoyed by their recent EFL Cup victory, are in the mix, along with Aston Villa, a Champions League quarter-finalist. Brighton, Fulham, and Bournemouth are also surprisingly close, all within four points of City, making for a very competitive race. Let`s examine the remaining fixtures to predict who might finish in the top five.

It`s important to note that the Premier League is guaranteed four Champions League spots. However, it`s highly probable that England will earn a fifth spot based on European coefficient rankings. Therefore, there will likely be at least five English teams in next season`s Champions League, and potentially more if Aston Villa wins this year`s Champions League or if Tottenham or Manchester United win the Europa League.

Gameweek 30

• Arsenal 2, Fulham 1
• Wolves 0, West Ham 1
• Nottingham Forest 2, Manchester United 2
• Bournemouth 2, Ipswich 1
• Brighton 1, Aston Villa 1
• Manchester City 3, Leicester 0
• Newcastle 2, Brentford 1
• Southampton 0, Crystal Palace 2
• Liverpool 1, Everton 0
• Chelsea 2, Tottenham 2

Fulham`s ability to trouble Arsenal might be limited, especially with Bukayo Saka`s expected return. Bournemouth, with a favorable home fixture against Ipswich, could overtake Fulham. Avoiding upsets against lower-ranked teams will be crucial in these final weeks, and Manchester City is unlikely to slip up against Leicester.

Chelsea, however, could face a challenge against Tottenham. While Stamford Bridge hasn`t been a happy hunting ground for Spurs historically, Ange Postecoglou`s team, potentially with a near full-strength squad, could pose a threat.

Gameweek 31

• Everton 1, Arsenal 1
• Crystal Palace 2, Brighton 1
• Ipswich 2, Wolves 0
• West Ham 2, Bournemouth 2
• Aston Villa 3, Nottingham Forest 1
• Brentford 0, Chelsea 0
• Fulham 1, Liverpool 3
• Tottenham 2, Southampton 0
• Manchester United 0, Manchester City 1
• Leicester 0, Newcastle 2

Nottingham Forest`s trip to Villa Park is a crucial moment. A win would give them valuable breathing room, while a loss could drag them back into the chasing pack. Newcastle could use this period to solidify their position in the top five race.

Gameweek 32

• Manchester City 2, Crystal Palace 1
• Brighton 1, Leicester 0
• Nottingham Forest 2, Everton 0
• Southampton 1, Aston Villa 0
• Arsenal 1, Brentford 0
• Chelsea 3, Ipswich 0
• Liverpool 2, West Ham 1
• Wolves 1, Tottenham 0
• Newcastle 3, Manchester United 1
• Bournemouth 3, Fulham 2

Game in hand

• Newcastle 2, Crystal Palace 2

Crystal Palace, with strong results in two away games, could surprisingly enter the European conversation. However, securing points at the Etihad Stadium and St. James` Park against Manchester City and Newcastle, respectively, will be challenging. Newcastle, playing shortly after a potentially demanding match against Manchester United, might be slightly more vulnerable.

Other notable fixtures include Southampton`s match against Aston Villa, potentially sandwiched between Champions League quarter-final legs for Villa. Fulham`s hopes of Champions League qualification might hinge on their result against Bournemouth. While it`s still early to rule out teams seventh or below, closing a six-point gap in as many games will require significant favors.

Predicted partial table on April 17

Gameweek 33

• Brentford 2, Brighton 0
• Crystal Palace 2, Bournemouth 2
• Everton 0, Manchester City 1
• West Ham 1, Southampton 0
• Aston Villa 3, Newcastle 2
• Fulham 0, Chelsea 1
• Ipswich 0, Arsenal 2
• Manchester United 2, Wolves 1
• Leicester 1, Liverpool 3
• Tottenham 2, Nottingham Forest 1

Gameweek 33 features two crucial matches in the Champions League race. Aston Villa`s game against Newcastle could either open the door for themselves and other chasing teams or solidify the top six. Tottenham, despite not being expected to be in the top five race, could still influence the outcome. Their performance, relative to their expected goal difference, suggests they might be more competitive than their position indicates.

Gameweek 34

• Chelsea 2, Everton 0
• Brighton 2, West Ham 1
• Newcastle 3, Ipswich 0
• Nottingham Forest 1, Brentford 0
• Southampton 0, Fulham 0
• Wolves 1, Leicester 2
• Arsenal 1, Crystal Palace 1
• Bournemouth 2, Manchester United 0
• Liverpool 3, Tottenham 1
• Manchester City 2, Aston Villa 0

Chelsea`s match against Everton is significant in their season. They face a challenging final four weeks, including games against Liverpool and Newcastle. Manchester City`s game against Aston Villa could potentially eliminate Villa from top-four contention. This weekend might also see Liverpool`s Premier League title confirmed.

Gameweek 35

• Manchester City 4, Wolves 1
• Aston Villa 2, Fulham 1
• Brentford 3, Manchester United 1
• Everton 0, Ipswich 1
• Leicester 2, Southampton 1
• West Ham 1, Tottenham 1
• Arsenal 2, Bournemouth 0
• Brighton 2, Newcastle 2
• Chelsea 1, Liverpool 1
• Crystal Palace 1, Nottingham Forest 1

Gameweek 35 might significantly narrow the Champions League race, potentially down to four teams competing for three spots. Manchester City`s predicted win against Wolves could create a four-point gap, putting pressure on Newcastle, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest, who all have difficult fixtures.

Brighton and Bournemouth could potentially stay in contention with wins against Newcastle and Arsenal, respectively. However, for these teams to still be in the Champions League discussion at this stage is already a remarkable achievement.

Predicted partial table on May 5

Gameweek 36

• Bournemouth 2, Aston Villa 2
• Fulham 1, Everton 0
• Ipswich 1, Brentford 1
• Liverpool 1, Arsenal 2
• Manchester United 1, West Ham 0
• Newcastle 1, Chelsea 1
• Nottingham Forest 1, Leicester 0
• Southampton 0, Manchester City 2
• Tottenham 1, Crystal Palace 2
• Wolves 2, Brighton 1

Newcastle and Chelsea face off in what could be the first of two key matches determining Champions League qualification. Newcastle might be slight favorites at home, but even a draw would keep Chelsea`s fate in their own hands. Nottingham Forest has opportunities to gain points against Leicester and West Ham, though the latter fixture might be more challenging than it appears.

Gameweek 37

• Arsenal 1, Newcastle 1
• Aston Villa 1, Tottenham 0
• Brentford 1, Fulham 2
• Brighton 2, Liverpool 2
• Chelsea 3, Manchester United 1
• Crystal Palace 1, Wolves 0
• Everton 2, Southampton 0
• Leicester 1, Ipswich 2
• Manchester City 2, Bournemouth 1
• West Ham 1, Nottingham Forest 1

These results could create significant shifts in the standings. Newcastle`s potential draw against Arsenal, while reaffirming their bogey team status, might not be particularly helpful in their Champions League pursuit. Even if Nottingham Forest draws against West Ham, it could set up a situation where a draw between Forest and Chelsea on the final day would benefit Chelsea, potentially leaving Newcastle needing a significant goal difference swing.

Gameweek 38

• Bournemouth 2, Leicester 1
• Fulham 1, Manchester City 1
• Ipswich 2, West Ham 2
• Liverpool 3, Crystal Palace 0
• Manchester United 1, Aston Villa 0
• Newcastle 3, Everton 0
• Nottingham Forest 1, Chelsea 2
• Southampton 0, Arsenal 3
• Tottenham 3, Brighton 3
• Wolves 2, Brentford 1

While a draw between Chelsea and Nottingham Forest is a possibility, the spotlight will be intense, and neither team would want to be perceived as deliberately excluding Newcastle. Newcastle might try to build a significant goal difference early in their game against Everton. The final day could see various scenarios unfold, but a direct clash between two top-five contenders is likely. As always in the Premier League, expect the unexpected.

Predicted final table