The hockey world spins relentlessly. Just as one season concludes with champagne showers (for one team, anyway) and gut-wrenching defeats (for 31 others), the focus immediately shifts to the offseason. Trades are made, free agents sign, and the rosters we scrutinized just weeks ago begin to look decidedly different. But beyond the traditional analysis of “who won the trade?” or “was that free agent worth the contract?”, how can we objectively measure which teams truly enhanced their on-ice product through player movement?
Enter the realm of analytics. While not a perfect predictor, metrics provide a valuable lens. One such metric, Goals Above Replacement (GAR), attempts to quantify a player`s overall contribution compared to a replacement-level player. By looking at a player`s performance over the past three seasons, weighting recent performance more heavily, we can get an “established level” of value. Summing the GAR of players added and subtracting the GAR of players lost gives us a “Net GAR” figure – a quantifiable measure of a team`s offseason roster change impact.
This analytical approach helps cut through the hype and provides a data-driven perspective on which teams made the most significant shifts this summer. Let`s explore the teams that, according to this methodology, either significantly boosted their roster`s value or saw crucial pieces depart.
The Roster Risers: Teams That Added the Most Value
Some organizations capitalized on the offseason market, adding established talent to complement existing cores or accelerate rebuilds.
San Jose Sharks: Building from the Ground Up (+22.0 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
Finishing at the bottom of the league requires significant change, and while their young prospects are key, San Jose added crucial veteran presence. Defensemen Dmitry Orlov and Nick Leddy bring experience and solid metrics to the blue line. Goalie Alex Nedeljkovic adds competency in net. These aren`t headline-grabbing moves meant to make them contenders overnight, but they are analytical upgrades that provide structure around their developing core, like top prospect Macklin Celebrini. A necessary step forward.
Anaheim Ducks: Injecting Established Offense (+17.7 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
The Ducks boast exciting young forwards, but needed proven talent to complement them. Adding veteran forwards Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund provides significant offensive value according to GAR. While losing goaltender John Gibson is a notable departure, the timing aligns with Lukáš Dostál`s emergence as a potential starter, and Petr Mrazek offers a capable backup. The roster talent improved, giving new (and controversially hired) coach Joel Quenneville more to work with.
Seattle Kraken: Strategic Reinforcements (+13.1 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
After taking a step back last season, particularly defensively, the Kraken addressed needs with targeted additions. Forward Mason Marchment brings physicality and solid two-way play that shows up well in metrics. Ryan Lindgren adds defensive stability. These moves, along with adding goaltending depth like Matt Murray, represent analytical progress for Seattle`s new management team.
Montreal Canadiens: Accelerating the Timeline (+11.1 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
The Canadiens were already an intriguing young team, and they significantly boosted their analytical profile by acquiring defenseman Noah Dobson. Dobson is a high-impact, young defenseman, instantly becoming a cornerstone on their blue line. Forward Zack Bolduc also represents a solid addition. Montreal`s future appears to be arriving ahead of schedule, and this offseason`s moves only cemented that.
Vegas Golden Knights: The Big Splash (+8.7 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
Predictably, the Golden Knights weren`t content to stand still. They landed perhaps the biggest name moved this offseason in forward Mitch Marner via sign-and-trade. Marner`s offensive numbers speak for themselves and represent a massive analytical boost to Vegas`s forward group. The cost was high, both in salary and assets like Nicolas Roy, but Vegas remains committed to pushing all chips in for immediate contention.
Nashville Predators: Quiet Efficiency (+8.7 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
After a season that didn`t meet expectations, Nashville made less flashy but analytically sound moves. Adding defensemen Nick Perbix and Nicolas Hague bolsters a defensive unit that needed help. While the team needs bounces back from key players, the strategic additions show up positively in the GAR metric, indicating a foundational improvement without a full teardown.
Honorable mentions for positive net GAR change include the Detroit Red Wings, New Jersey Devils, Utah Mammoth, and Boston Bruins.
The Roster Recession: Teams That Lost the Most Value
Conversely, some teams saw significant analytical value depart their rosters, facing the challenge of replacing key contributions.
Dallas Stars: Navigating Turbulence (-25.3 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
Perhaps the most dramatic offseason shift occurred in Dallas. Despite consistent playoff success, a coaching change signaled bigger upheaval. The analytical impact is stark: the Stars lost the most net GAR in the league, with significant players like Mason Marchment, Mikael Granlund, Evgenii Dadonov, and Cody Ceci moving on. While their core is elite, replacing this level of depth talent is a massive challenge. This analytical downturn highlights the risk in such extensive roster turnover.
Edmonton Oilers: Post-Final Fallout (-13.1 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
Falling short of the Cup again led to several players departing Edmonton, including Corey Perry, Viktor Arvidsson, and Evander Kane. While Andrew Mangiapane was added, the net effect is a loss of established value. This analytical dip is compounded by a key question: despite goaltending struggles in the Final, the Oilers did not make a move for a significant upgrade in net, a decision the data suggests leaves a potential vulnerability.
Toronto Maple Leafs: The Marner Departure (-12.3 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
The biggest story in Toronto was the departure of star forward Mitch Marner. While the return package included valuable players like Nicolas Roy, the loss of a player with Marner`s analytical impact creates a significant deficit. The team added Matias Maccelli, who brings potential, but the sheer value leaving the roster puts Toronto squarely on the negative side of this analysis. The core remains strong, but the depth took a hit.
New York Rangers: Active… and Depleted? (-9.3 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
The Rangers were busy this offseason, making a coaching change and numerous player moves. While signing a solid defenseman like Vladislav Gavrikov was a positive step, the departures of long-serving players like Chris Kreider and K`Andre Miller, among others, resulted in a notable net loss of GAR value. This analysis suggests the Rangers will need existing players to elevate their performance to offset the talent that has left.
Winnipeg Jets: Poised for Regression? (-7.4 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
After a surprisingly strong season, the Jets saw significant value depart, most notably dynamic forward Nikolaj Ehlers. His offensive contributions will be hard to replace. While additions like Gustav Nyquist help, the analytical loss points towards potential regression for a team that outperformed many underlying metrics last year. Losing Ehlers only exacerbates that possibility.
Colorado Avalanche: The Price of Elite Stars (-7.4 Net 3Y Weighted GAR)
Maintaining an elite core under the salary cap often means shedding valuable supporting players. The Avalanche continued this trend, losing players like Charlie Coyle and Jonathan Drouin. While adding veteran defenseman Brent Burns brings intrigue, the net analytical effect is a decline in roster value. The star power of Makar and MacKinnon remains immense, but the depth around them continues to erode compared to their Cup-winning peak.
Other teams experiencing a notable net loss in GAR include the Carolina Hurricanes, Vancouver Canucks, Minnesota Wild, and Washington Capitals.
The Full Ranking: Offseason Value Shifts Across the League
Here is the complete picture, ranking all 32 NHL teams based on their net 3-year weighted Goals Above Replacement (GAR) change during the 2025 offseason:
| Rank | Team | Additions (3Y wGAR) | Subtractions (3Y wGAR) | Net GAR Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | San Jose Sharks | 21.1 | -0.9 | 22.0 |
| 2. | Anaheim Ducks | 25.6 | 7.9 | 17.7 |
| 3. | Seattle Kraken | 18.9 | 5.8 | 13.1 |
| 4. | Montreal Canadiens | 18.2 | 7.1 | 11.1 |
| 5. | Nashville Predators | 11.8 | 3.1 | 8.7 |
| 6. | Vegas Golden Knights | 19.9 | 11.2 | 8.7 |
| 7. | Boston Bruins | 8.7 | 1.8 | 6.9 |
| 8. | Pittsburgh Penguins | 10.3 | 6.0 | 4.3 |
| 9. | Utah Mammoth | 18.3 | 15.4 | 2.9 |
| 10. | Ottawa Senators | 10.0 | 7.7 | 2.3 |
| 11. | New Jersey Devils | 8.6 | 7.2 | 1.4 |
| 12. | Buffalo Sabres | 17.1 | 15.8 | 1.3 |
| 13. | St. Louis Blues | 10.8 | 10.3 | 0.5 |
| 14. | Los Angeles Kings | 18.4 | 17.9 | 0.5 |
| 15. | Philadelphia Flyers | 6.7 | 6.3 | 0.4 |
| 16. | Detroit Red Wings | 18.6 | 18.2 | 0.4 |
| 17. | Chicago Blackhawks | 4.2 | 5.3 | -1.1 |
| 18. | Tampa Bay Lightning | 4.6 | 6.4 | -1.8 |
| 19. | Florida Panthers | 3.7 | 5.5 | -1.8 |
| 20. | Columbus Blue Jackets | 5.3 | 7.6 | -2.3 |
| 21. | Vancouver Canucks | 3.2 | 6.3 | -3.1 |
| 22. | New York Islanders | 9.2 | 14.0 | -4.8 |
| 23. | Calgary Flames | 0.0 | 6.3 | -6.3 |
| 24. | Minnesota Wild | 7.3 | 13.6 | -6.3 |
| 25. | Carolina Hurricanes | 18.8 | 25.2 | -6.4 |
| 26. | Washington Capitals | 3.3 | 10.1 | -6.8 |
| 27. | Colorado Avalanche | 13.2 | 20.6 | -7.4 |
| 28. | Winnipeg Jets | 10.4 | 17.8 | -7.4 |
| 29. | New York Rangers | 11.3 | 20.7 | -9.4 |
| 30. | Toronto Maple Leafs | 9.1 | 21.4 | -12.3 |
| 31. | Edmonton Oilers | 5.5 | 18.6 | -13.1 |
| 32. | Dallas Stars | 0.8 | 26.1 | -25.3 |
While these analytical rankings offer a data-driven perspective on offseason outcomes, they represent only one piece of the puzzle. The intangible factors – chemistry, coaching effectiveness, adaptability, and sheer luck – will ultimately determine success on the ice. Nevertheless, understanding the quantifiable value shifts provides a fascinating baseline as we await the start of the next NHL season. The numbers suggest significant changes for several clubs; now we watch to see how it all plays out in reality.
Rupert Hartwell