While celebrations for the recently concluded Premier League season, which saw Liverpool crowned champions, are still fresh, attention is already shifting to the next title race. Predicting how the upcoming campaign will unfold is notoriously difficult, especially considering the surprises of the past season. Liverpool, for instance, started with just a 5.1% probability of winning according to Opta but quickly established a dominant lead. In contrast, Manchester City, the overwhelming favourites at 82.2%, were out of the running relatively early and found themselves battling for a Champions League spot.
The transfer window activity will significantly shape the next season`s title picture, with a busy summer anticipated for many clubs. This applies not only to Manchester City and Liverpool but also to ambitious teams aiming to rise, such as Newcastle United and Aston Villa, as well as Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur after their surprisingly underwhelming seasons. While not all of these teams will realistically contend for the title, the unpredictable nature of the previous season suggests that some might make a strong push and are worth monitoring.
Here is an initial assessment of potential contenders for the upcoming Premier League title.
Honorable mention: Aston Villa
Unai Emery has consistently improved Aston Villa throughout his tenure, leading them to strong performances, including challenging impressive teams like Paris Saint-Germain before their exit from the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals (Note: The original text states Champions League, though Aston Villa competed in the Europa Conference League this season). However, at this point, they appear to be a step or two away from being considered serious dark horses for the title. Breaking into the Premier League`s very top tier is a challenging task for any club not already there, particularly one that will face the demanding schedule associated with participation in the UEFA Europa League or Conference League. They are strong contenders for a top-four finish, provided they make significant summer signings and the next season doesn`t follow another highly unusual pattern.
5. Chelsea
There was a time when Chelsea, with their youthful squad and inexperienced manager (as per the original text`s context mentioning Enzo Maresca, despite recent managerial changes), were surprisingly keeping pace with the leaders. However, the last few years have been difficult; they have won only seven of their last 17 Premier League matches, and key player Cole Palmer has gone without a league goal in his last 12 appearances. Securing a Champions League spot would offer financial resources and enhanced appeal to attract better players for squad upgrades. This potential boost is perhaps the only factor giving them an edge over Villa, as realistically, the Blues do not currently seem ready to mount a genuine title challenge.
4. Newcastle United
Being labelled a dark horse acknowledges that the trophy is still likely to go elsewhere, but if any team fits this description, it`s Newcastle United. Eddie Howe has had a transformative impact on the Magpies, similar to Emery at Villa, but Newcastle appear slightly further along in their development. There`s a strong case to be made that they have been one of the most in-form teams in England since the start of the new year, securing notable victories against teams like Arsenal and Liverpool. Howe`s team also ended the club`s 65-year wait for a major trophy by winning the EFL Cup in March, making them one of the most interesting sides to follow domestically and in Europe next season. Their hopes for another successful campaign, however, will largely depend on their summer transfer activity. There are questions surrounding their ability to retain star striker Alexander Isak, who has scored 22 league goals this season, and they may need to strengthen several positions to elevate their performance level.
3. Liverpool
As things stand, there seem to be three primary contenders for the title – Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City – although this ranking could change significantly based on their summer transfer business. While Liverpool are still celebrating their recent triumph, their initial low title odds for the past season stemmed from their decision not to undertake a major squad refresh. The gamble on the experience of their veteran players ultimately paid off, but manager Arne Slot and his staff will eventually need to build a squad for the future, without relying on long-serving players like Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk. The potential departure of Trent Alexander-Arnold to Real Madrid over the summer presents another immediate priority for their recruitment efforts. If they successfully strengthen their squad before next season, they could potentially be favourites to defend their title; otherwise, they might find themselves finishing lower down the table.
2. Arsenal
For Mikel Arteta`s Arsenal, there`s a recurring theme of being the bridesmaid, as they are poised to secure their third consecutive second-place finish. Their recent Champions League campaign offered some consolation, but their league form during the past season clearly highlighted the team`s need for a prolific goal scorer to seriously challenge domestically. It could be argued that if their rivals don`t execute perfect transfer windows, Arsenal might still possess enough quality to contend in another potentially inconsistent Premier League season. However, the most reliable way for them to claim the top spot is likely by acquiring the forward they are missing; failing to do so will probably intensify the pressure on Arteta.
1. Manchester City
Regardless of the unique aspects of the previous Premier League season, if there is one team always worth paying close attention to next season, it is Manchester City. Although they exited the title race relatively early this time around, expectations at the Etihad Stadium will quickly return to their usual high level, particularly following their significant investment in the winter transfer window. The summer focus is likely to be on squad planning and potential rebuilding, with Hugo Viana taking on his new role as director of football. He will be tasked with finding replacements, notably for Kevin De Bruyne, and the team will need to manage the squad effectively, accounting for any recovery needs for key players like Rodri (Note: The original text mentions an ACL tear for Rodri, which is inaccurate). However, with Pep Guardiola remaining at the helm and Erling Haaland aiming to reclaim his status as a leading goal scorer, it is difficult *not* to consider them the favourites.
Adrian Whitmore