When you think of teams capable of producing Champions League magic, Real Madrid is always at the forefront. Playing at the Santiago Bernabeu on a big European night often has a psychological effect on opponents. As Carlo Ancelotti noted after their recent match, “In football, anything can happen, especially at the Bernabeu.”
While history and home advantage are valuable assets, they might not be enough to overturn a three-goal deficit against one of Europe`s best defenses.
Looking at their recent performance, did Real Madrid actually appear capable of scoring three goals at Arsenal`s Emirates Stadium? Their nine shots, resulting in a low expected goal (xG) value, suggest otherwise. Early mistakes from Arsenal players like Kiwior and Saka gave Madrid some opportunities. A brilliant play by Bellingham created a chance for Mbappe, but his shot was too close to the Arsenal goalkeeper. Once Arsenal eliminated these initial errors, Madrid struggled to break through Arsenal`s solid defense, particularly William Saliba.
Arsenal`s defensive strength is built on quality defenders. Timber effectively neutralized Vinicius Junior, and Lewis-Skelly compensates for his lack of experience with exceptional anticipation. Rodrygo also found it difficult to make an impact against them.
Kiwior, initially seen as a potential weak point in place of Gabriel, proved to be a talented defender who simply needs more playing time. He felt positive after the game but acknowledged the challenge ahead, emphasizing the tie is far from over and remaining focused.
The Arsenal team shares Kiwior`s focused mentality. Having overcome past struggles, they are now a relentlessly serious and well-organized team under their manager, who aimed to change the club`s culture from his arrival as a player. They take conceding goals seriously and will make it extremely difficult for Real Madrid to get shots on target. Their defensive structure is so disciplined that Fulham`s Sander Berge likened it to being “remote-controlled.”
Arsenal`s best defense is often their possession of the ball. They prioritize defensive stability when attacking. They are among the best in the Premier League at preventing counter-attack shots, despite committing many players forward in attack.
The last time Arsenal conceded three goals was in a 4-3 win against Luton in December 2023. It has been almost two years since they lost by a three-goal margin, the exact deficit Real Madrid needs to overcome to force extra time.
Brentford`s manager, Thomas Frank, acknowledged Arsenal`s defensive strength after his team struggled to create chances against them. He highlighted Arsenal`s hard work and defensive excellence, especially on set pieces, predicting they “will be fine.”
While some might argue that holding Fulham and Brentford to one goal is different from facing Real Madrid, the first leg performance didn`t clearly demonstrate this gap. Now, with work to do, Real Madrid`s approach will likely change. Bellingham might focus less on tracking Odegaard and Saka, and more on supporting Mbappe and Vinicius Junior. Rodrygo, who previously helped Valverde defensively, will also need to be more attack-minded. Real Madrid will need to attack from the start.
Real Madrid possesses the talent to score the required goals. However, questions arise about their ability to break through Arsenal`s press, especially with Declan Rice controlling midfield transitions. Arsenal`s defensive setup was evident in their recent game.
Furthermore, the threat of Saka and Odegaard in open space, or Vinicius failing to track back and exposing Alaba defensively, presents challenges for Madrid. Gabriel Martinelli`s danger in open space is also a factor Arsenal can exploit.
Real Madrid has only one clean sheet in their last 10 games, achieved against Alaves with 10 men. They have conceded 10 or more shots in 15 of their last 17 matches. Across all competitions this season, they concede over one expected goal per game, rising to 1.4 xG in the Champions League, with their only clean sheet against a weaker Brest side. Injuries have weakened their defense, making them vulnerable.
While two brilliant free kicks from Rice might have given Arsenal the advantage, they also created more open play chances than Madrid in the first leg. A not fully fit Saka found space to attack and create opportunities from the byline against a Madrid team that seemed focused on a tight first leg, aiming to win at home.
This strategy backfired significantly. While Arsenal remains cautious, acknowledging the Bernabeu challenge, if it weren`t Real Madrid, with their history of European success, facing them, would anyone truly believe in their comeback chances based on the first leg? Madrid`s reputation might be their most potent weapon, but it`s unlikely to be enough.
Adrian Whitmore