Analysis by Ryan S. Clark and Kristen Shilton
The Stanley Cup playoffs represent one of the most physically and mentally demanding postseason tournaments in sports. Given this intensity, it`s remarkably rare for a team to appear in the Final in back-to-back years. Even less common is for the *same two teams* to face off again in consecutive Cup series.
Yet, that`s precisely the scenario unfolding in 2025. Following a dramatic seven-game battle in 2024 – where the Florida Panthers took a commanding 3-0 lead, only to see the Edmonton Oilers storm back to tie the series before the Panthers secured Game 7 for their franchise`s first-ever Cup – these two powerhouses are set for a highly anticipated rematch, starting with Game 1 on Wednesday.
How have these teams evolved or changed since their last meeting? How confident should each side feel about their goaltending performance right now? What are the key X factors and lingering questions that could shape the outcome of this sequel series?
Ryan S. Clark and Kristen Shilton break down the key aspects in this preview of the heavyweight rematch.
How are these teams better than last season`s versions?
Oilers
Edmonton appears to possess a newfound ruthlessness this year, likely a direct consequence of their heartbreaking 2024 Final loss against Florida. This postseason, they`ve not only mastered the art of the comeback but also developed an ability to prevent opponents from rallying.
Their journey included recovering from a 2-0 deficit in the first round against the Los Angeles Kings, winning four straight. Against the Vegas Golden Knights in Round 2, they fell behind 2-0 in Game 1 but set a playoff record with their fifth consecutive comeback win. Even after a last-second loss in Game 3, they shut out Vegas in the final two games.
This defensive stinginess continued in the Western Conference finals against the Dallas Stars. After giving up six straight goals to lose Game 1, the Oilers conceded a total of just five goals over the next four games to clinch their spot in the Cup Final. — Clark
Panthers
Florida had decent depth last season, but this time around, their depth is truly exceptional. They`ve had 19 different players find the back of the net in these playoffs, an increase from 15 in the 2024 run.
The Panthers are also averaging more goals per game (3.88) and allowing fewer (2.29) than before. Their power play has seen a marked improvement in productivity (23.2% vs. 18.5%), and their penalty kill (87.9%) stands as the best in the playoffs.
The team`s collective commitment to defense is evident. They`re giving up fewer shots and have effectively stifled some of the league`s top offensive teams, holding the regular-season scoring leader Tampa Bay Lightning to just 12 goals in five games. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky`s individual statistics are also stronger this year.
General Manager Bill Zito made key additions to the roster, bringing in Brad Marchand, who has been a highly effective third-line player, and Seth Jones, a productive defenseman. Florida has successfully blended physicality and skill, making them a formidable challenge for every opponent faced so far. — Shilton
How are these teams worse than last season`s versions?
Oilers
The Oilers` penalty kill, which was among the best in league history last season, has shown struggles at times in these playoffs. A key factor in their 2024 Final run was a remarkable 94.3% penalty kill success rate. This year, while they are back in the Final, their shorthanded performance is down to 66%, ranking third-worst this postseason.
The difference lies primarily in personnel. Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, and Ryan McLeod, all integral players who ranked in the top eight for Oilers` shorthanded minutes last postseason, played elsewhere this season.
Additionally, there`s the situation with Mattias Ekholm, who led the team in shorthanded ice time by a significant margin last year. The good news for Edmonton is that Ekholm returned to the lineup in Game 5 against the Stars after missing the previous games recovering from an undisclosed injury. His presence is crucial for the penalty kill. — Clark
Panthers
Frankly, it`s challenging to find significant flaws in the Panthers` game this season. However, there have been moments of vulnerability where Florida didn`t look quite championship-caliber.
Early games in the second-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs exposed Florida`s defensive weaknesses against top-tier talent on the rush. This issue reappeared in Games 4 and 5 against the Carolina Hurricanes, where Florida seemed flat-footed and prone to turnovers against faster forwards.
This is an area where the Panthers struggled less last season. Florida is averaging more giveaways per 60 minutes this postseason (12.23) compared to last year (9.67). Edmonton`s speed and skill are capable of forcing such errors. Therefore, puck management and protection will be critically important for the Panthers in this series. — Shilton
Goaltender confidence ratings
Oilers: 8.5/10
May 10th marked a turning point for the Oilers and goaltender Stuart Skinner. That was the day coach Kris Knoblauch reinstated Skinner as the starting goaltender for Game 3 against the Golden Knights.
Skinner had been benched after allowing 12 goals in the first two games of the preceding series against the Kings, leading to Calvin Pickard taking over. However, Pickard sustained an injury in Game 2 against Vegas, necessitating Skinner`s return for Game 3.
Since rejoining the lineup, Skinner has become one of the Oilers` most vital players. He shut out the Golden Knights in the final two games of that series and also recorded a shutout against the Stars in the conference finals.
While the shutouts were impressive, some questions remained about whether the Oilers could win games where Skinner wasn`t perfect. He answered these concerns decisively by posting a .920 save percentage over the final three games against Dallas, firmly closing the door on their comeback hopes. — Clark
Panthers: 9/10
Sergei Bobrovsky has consistently elevated his performance level throughout each series Florida has played this postseason, and his recent statistics are simply outstanding.
Through the first five games against Tampa Bay and the initial three games against Toronto, Bobrovsky`s record was 5-3 with an .875 save percentage and 2.94 goals-against average – respectable, but not spectacular. However, something clicked in the second round, unleashing `Playoff Bob.` In Games 4-7 against the Leafs and the entire Eastern Conference finals, Bobrovsky posted a remarkable 7-2 record with a .944 SV% and 1.34 GAA, including two shutouts during that stretch.
His weakest outing in the past two weeks was Game 5 against Carolina, where he allowed three goals on 20 shots, the most he had given up since Game 3 against Toronto.
Bobrovsky has repeatedly demonstrated his resilience and skill. He has experienced both success and failure during a Cup Final run, notably being pulled from Game 4 last year in a heavy 8-1 loss. Now a veteran netminder playing at the peak of his game, Bobrovsky will aim to outperform Skinner once again in this year`s goaltending matchup. — Shilton
X factors for the Cup Final
Oilers
A major question mark for the Oilers is how they will perform over a full series without Zach Hyman. Hyman was Edmonton`s leading goal scorer last postseason and has been their most physical player this year, leading the NHL playoffs with 111 hits before his injury.
The injury he sustained in Game 4 against Dallas means he will miss the remainder of the playoffs. This loss creates significant concerns: Who will provide that physical presence? Who steps up into a top-six forward role? Who replaces him on the power play?
In their first game without Hyman, the Oilers relied on their depth, with five forwards recording more than five hits. Evander Kane and Kasperi Kapanen, two of those players, also scored in the series-clinching Game 5. It`s worth noting that Hyman wasn`t the *only* physical player on the Oilers; heading into Game 1 of the Final, five Oilers players rank in the top 25 for hits this postseason. The team`s ability to collectively absorb Hyman`s absence will be crucial. — Clark
Panthers
The performance of Florida`s star forwards against Edmonton`s elite offensive talent will be a key X factor. As mentioned, the Panthers boast scoring depth with 19 different players tallying goals this postseason – the same number as the Oilers.
However, Edmonton`s Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are the clear top two playoff scorers with 26 and 25 points, respectively. The Panthers` top point-getters are Aleksander Barkov (17 points) and Sam Bennett (16 points). Bennett also leads Florida in goals with 10, the only Panther in double digits.
For Florida to succeed, their key offensive players – Barkov, Bennett, Sam Reinhart (four goals, 13 points), Carter Verhaeghe (six goals, 14 points), and Matthew Tkachuk (five goals, 16 points) – all need to be consistently productive from the start. The Oilers are opportunistic and explosive, equally dangerous at five-on-five as they are on the power play. How Florida counters their dynamic stars while consistently activating their own offense could ultimately decide this series. — Shilton
Big questions before Game 1
Can a team defined by its adjustments continue to make the right ones?
The Oilers have demonstrated a remarkable ability to make significant, effective adjustments throughout these playoffs. These adjustments helped them rally from a 2-0 deficit against the Kings in the first round. They were crucial in silencing the high-scoring Golden Knights over the final two games of their series.
Their in-series adaptations were also evident in how they responded to giving up six goals to the Stars in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, subsequently allowing only five goals combined over the next four games.
They`ve managed defensive continuity despite Mattias Ekholm`s absence for much of the playoffs and navigated goaltending decisions by shifting from Skinner to Pickard and back to Skinner. Now, they face the challenge of adjusting to the absence of Zach Hyman in the Final.
Will this consistent capacity for tactical adjustments be the defining factor, leading them to their first Cup since 1990 and preventing a repeat of last season`s defeat? — Clark
How will penalties influence this series?
Florida plays a hard, physical game, often pushing the boundaries but generally staying on the right side of the rules. However, they also spend a significant amount of time in the penalty box. Can the Panthers strike the necessary balance, knowing the Oilers possess a dominant power play that scored six goals on the man advantage – at least one in each game – during the Western Conference finals against Dallas?
Florida is the most penalized team in the playoff field by a considerable margin, which is somewhat expected for a team that also leads the postseason in hits per game (47.05). On the flip side, Florida has also drawn more penalties than any other team.
This creates a fascinating dynamic that could unfold in two ways for the Panthers. Will their physical approach frustrate the Oilers into taking penalties while they themselves stay disciplined? Or will Edmonton`s speed and skill force the Panthers into overstepping their limits?
Special teams loom large in this matchup. Edmonton holds the edge on the power play, while Florida boasts an elite penalty kill. The back-and-forth battle and potential gamesmanship surrounding penalties will be a major storyline. — Shilton
Game 1 best bets
Here are some betting insights for Game 1:
Anton Lundell over 0.5 total assists (+210): Historically, the Oilers prefer matching Connor McDavid`s line against Matthew Tkachuk`s when they have last change, which they will have to start the series in Edmonton. The Panthers, conversely, rely on Aleksander Barkov to check McDavid when they have the advantage. This strategic maneuvering leaves Edmonton with fewer ideal options to contain the effective trio of Lundell, Brad Marchand, and Eetu Luostarinen. That line has been dominant at 5-on-5 this postseason, scoring 10 goals while allowing just two.
Vasily Podkolzin over 4.5 total hits (+115): The Oilers have increased their physicality this year, likely a lesson learned from falling to the punishing Panthers last spring. In limited ice time (10:53 per game), Podkolzin has delivered 74 hits over 16 games, averaging 5.0 hits per night at home. He`s a strong candidate to maintain that pace.
Luostarinen over 0.5 total goals (+650): If you`re seeking a longer shot to boost a same-game parlay payout, betting on Luostarinen to score a goal is a reasonable gamble. He ranks second among Panthers players in 5-on-5 goals this postseason (four) and second in high-danger scoring chances (17, according to NaturalStatTrick), yet his odds are considerably longer than other Panthers players with similar metrics (Lundell at +360, Carter Verhaeghe at +230). — Sean Allen
Rupert Hartwell 
Benedict Kingsley