Ah, the annual ritual. The fantasy hockey draft. A crucible of hope, strategic genius, and sometimes, profound regret. Every season, managers embark on a quest, sifting through projections and whispers, seeking that elusive edge. The goal is simple, yet maddeningly complex: identify the players who will defy expectations and those who will tragically uphold them in the worst way. This isn`t merely about drafting the best players; it`s about drafting the right players at the right value. This year, as the 2025-26 NHL season looms, we delve into the murky waters of player valuations, shining a light on those poised to outperform their current draft position, and those who, bless their hearts, are likely to sink your championship dreams.
The Elusive Sleepers: Unearthing Hidden Gems
The true beauty of a well-executed fantasy draft lies in the discovery of a “sleeper” – a player whose projected output pales in comparison to their eventual breakout performance. These are not merely good players; they are undervalued assets. Their potential often hinges on new opportunities: a promotion to a scoring line, a coveted spot on the power play, a change of scenery, or a strategic coaching adjustment. Unearthing these gems requires more than just skimming headlines; it demands a deep dive into team dynamics, player trajectory, and a touch of speculative courage.
Goaltending: The Last Line of Defense, The First Pick for Value
In fantasy hockey, a reliable netminder can be gold. But drafting one late who performs like an early pick? That`s wizardry.
Lukas Dostal (G, Anaheim Ducks)
With John Gibson’s departure to Detroit, the crease in Anaheim is officially Dostal’s domain. At 25, he’s entering his prime as the undisputed starter for a Ducks squad that’s quietly assembling a formidable roster. Offseason acquisitions like Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund inject much-needed scoring, complementing rising stars Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier. Crucially, the arrival of Joel Quenneville, a proven winner, and assistant Ryan McGill, known for defensive fortifications, signals a shift towards a more structured, goalie-friendly system. Dostal is slated for at least 55 starts, and with improved support, his personal statistics should flourish, making him a fantastic No. 3 goalie with No. 2 upside. Grab him while others are still looking for big names.
Forwards: The Goal-Getters and Point-Producers
Points win leagues, and these forwards are positioned to deliver more than their current draft stock suggests.
Andrei Kuzmenko (F, Los Angeles Kings)
After a somewhat enigmatic tenure elsewhere, Kuzmenko found a new lease on life with the Kings, chipping in 17 points in 22 games post-trade. Now, picture him on a scoring line with future Hall-of-Famer Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, with prime power-play duties. While his 74-point, 39-goal rookie season may be an outlier, a 65-plus point campaign is entirely within reach. The key is monitoring his deployment in camp; if he locks down that top power-play spot, Kuzmenko could be a steal at his current low forward ranking.
Cole Perfetti (F, Winnipeg Jets)
Entering his fourth full season, the 23-year-old Perfetti is due for a significant breakout. Nikolaj Ehlers’ move to Carolina clears a path for increased responsibility, cementing Perfetti`s role on the second scoring line and, more enticingly, a full-time gig on the top power play alongside Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. This combination of talent and opportunity is a potent cocktail. Expect him to comfortably exceed 65 points, far outperforming his current valuation.
Matias Maccelli (F, Toronto Maple Leafs)
This is where the fantasy gamble gets interesting, and potentially very rewarding. If—and this is a Scotiabank Arena-sized if—Maccelli secures the coveted spot on Toronto`s top line with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies, stepping into the void left by Marner, he will have an astronomical ceiling. Any forward skating regularly with Matthews is going to rack up points, far exceeding his previous 57-point career high. Even if he lands on the second unit with John Tavares and William Nylander, his offensive potential remains significant. Keep a very close eye on training camp line combinations; Maccelli could be the ultimate boom-or-bust pick with a massive boom potential.
Mathew Barzal (F, New York Islanders)
Last season was marred by injury, limiting Barzal`s impact to just 20 points in 30 games. However, a healthy Barzal in his prime is a different beast entirely. We`ve seen his point-per-game potential, most recently with an 80-point season two years prior. Mentally and physically rejuvenated, Barzal is poised for a significant rebound. His current ranking reflects recency bias from an injury-plagued year, presenting a prime opportunity to acquire a true top-tier playmaker at a discount.
Will Cuylle (F, New York Rangers)
While he may not have snagged the captaincy, Cuylle’s trajectory is pointing skyward. The third-year Ranger is being discussed with 30-goal, 30-assist expectations, complemented by an exceptional physical game (300 hits last season). A full-time role on a scoring line with J.T. Miller and Mika Zibanejad, plus secondary power-play minutes, makes these lofty projections plausible. Cuylle is currently a name recognized mostly in New York, but his fantasy stock is set to explode in deeper, balanced leagues where hits are valued.
Trevor Zegras (F, Philadelphia Flyers)
A change of scenery can be a powerful elixir, and Zegras’s move from Anaheim to Philadelphia feels like a much-needed reset. At 24, he still possesses 70-point potential. In Philadelphia, he projects for at least a second-line role and top power-play time. The intriguing possibility of him joining Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny on the top unit adds even more sparkle. Monitoring Rick Tocchet`s line management in camp will be critical. In fresh digs, Zegras is perfectly positioned to reignite his offensive spark.
Morgan Geekie (F, Boston Bruins)
Geekie`s 57 points in 77 games last season might have flown under the radar, but his production skyrocketed after Brad Marchand’s departure, with 22 points in his final 14 contests. A full season on a top line and power play with Elias Lindholm and, crucially, David Pastrnak, positions Geekie for a substantial jump, potentially nearing the 70-point mark. This is a player whose role has expanded dramatically, and his current valuation simply hasn`t caught up.
JJ Peterka (F, Utah Mammoth)
Out of Buffalo and into Utah, Peterka is set for a substantial promotion. Now the highest-paid forward on his new club, he’ll be skating on a scoring line with Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, plus a power-play spot alongside Clayton Keller. This ideal setup should easily push Peterka past the 70-point threshold for the first time in his young career. Add to that his propensity to shoot, and you have a high-volume offensive threat eager to prove his worth in a leading role.
Ivan Barbashev (F, Vegas Golden Knights)
Barbashev’s steady production on Vegas’s top line with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone (0.73 points/game last season) is already solid. Now, imagine a scenario where the dynamic Mitch Marner joins that line. The potential for a “slight boost” is an understatement. Beyond points, Barbashev’s willingness to throw his body around adds significant value in leagues that reward hits, making him a multi-category contributor often overlooked.
Defensemen: Blue-Line Bargains
Don’t underestimate the blueline. Defensemen who can consistently chip in points, especially on the power play, are invaluable.
Shayne Gostisbehere (D, Carolina Hurricanes)
Gostisbehere quietly put up 27 power-play points last season, a figure surpassed only by Cale Makar, Jake Sanderson, and Quinn Hughes. Add another 18 even-strength points in just 70 games, and his value becomes apparent. As Carolina’s top power-play anchor, he’s projected to replicate this elite special teams production. In leagues that heavily weigh power-play points, Gostisbehere is dramatically undervalued as a No. 51 defenseman.
Cam Fowler (D, St. Louis Blues)
Perennially underrated, Fowler truly found his stride after joining the Blues last December, racking up 36 points in just 51 contests. Nearing 500 career points, he’s set to quarterback the top power play in St. Louis for a full season. Expect him to comfortably hit 45 points, if not more. For those seeking extra incentive, Fowler is also in the final year of his contract, a common motivator for enhanced performance.
The Treacherous Busts: Avoiding the Draft Day Pitfalls
Just as there are diamonds in the rough, there are also fool`s gold. These are players whose reputation, past performance, or current ADP inflate their value beyond what they are likely to deliver. Drafting a “bust” too high can cripple your team, leaving you scrambling for replacements and regretting a missed opportunity to select a more productive player. Avoiding these landmines is as crucial as unearthing sleepers.
Forwards: The Overvalued Attackers
Even the most talented forwards can underwhelm if their circumstances aren`t right.
Connor Bedard (F, Chicago Blackhawks)
Yes, Bedard is a generational talent, the undisputed face of the Blackhawks franchise, and a Calder winner. But even the brightest stars need a galaxy around them. Until Chicago significantly bolsters its supporting cast, Bedard will struggle to consistently break the point-per-game barrier. Entering the final year of his entry-level deal, the pressure is mounting on Blackhawks management to provide him with more help. Until then, his draft position at No. 38 forward feels overly optimistic given the team context.
Steven Stamkos (F, Nashville Predators)
The former Lightning captain’s debut season in Nashville yielded a career-low 53 points. While a repeat of such an uncharacteristic performance is unlikely for a career point-per-game player, expecting him to return to his 75-point-plus glory days might be wishful thinking. The Predators are a different team, and Stamkos is adjusting to a new environment later in his illustrious career. His No. 24 forward ranking seems to heavily lean on past achievements rather than projected future output, making him a risky pick at that spot.
Defensemen: The Blue-Line Backslides
Defensemen’s production can fluctuate wildly with changes in role and teammates.
Mike Matheson (D, Montreal Canadiens)
Matheson’s production plummeted from 62 points two seasons ago to 31 last season, largely overshadowed by Lane Hutson’s Calder-winning rookie campaign. Now, with Noah Dobson also in the fold, Matheson’s power-play opportunities are likely to be further diminished. His No. 18 defenseman ranking feels entirely detached from his current role and projected ice time with the man advantage. There simply won`t be enough power-play points to justify such a high selection.
Brent Burns (D, Colorado Avalanche)
Joining his fourth NHL team at 40 years old, Burns gets another legitimate shot at the Stanley Cup. However, this comes at the cost of fantasy production. He`ll be taking a backseat on the blueline to the likes of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard. After potting 61 points in Carolina two seasons ago, his production dipped to 29 last year. With Colorado’s deep defensive corps, 29 points feels more like his ceiling than his floor, making his No. 53 defenseman ranking quite generous for fantasy purposes.
Goaltending: Guarding Against Overprojection
Goaltenders are notoriously volatile, and chasing last year`s outlier can be dangerous.
Logan Thompson (G, Washington Capitals)
Thompson`s 31-6-6 record with Vegas last season was a pleasant surprise for many. The crucial question, however, is repeatability. Can he replicate that sparkling winning percentage with a Washington Capitals team that is unlikely to hit 111 points again? His .910 Save Percentage suggests that a lot of factors aligned perfectly for him in Vegas. While a good fantasy goalie, Thompson is not a comfortable No. 2 starter in competitive leagues, and his No. 12 goaltender ranking is a significant overestimation of his likely output. Proceed with caution.
The fantasy hockey draft is a marathon, not a sprint, and success often hinges on the shrewd management of risk and reward. Identifying “sleepers” who are poised for increased opportunity and production, while simultaneously avoiding the “busts” whose perceived value outstrips their realistic ceiling, is the hallmark of a champion. This isn`t an exact science, of course; the puck takes strange bounces, injuries occur, and coaches are notoriously unpredictable. But by understanding the underlying dynamics – new environments, expanded roles, age curves, and coaching philosophies – you can navigate the draft with greater confidence, constructing a roster that doesn`t just look good on paper, but delivers where it counts: on the scoreboard, and ultimately, in your league`s standings. Happy drafting!
Rupert Hartwell 
Benedict Kingsley