The National Hockey League`s goaltending landscape has undergone a seismic shift. Once dominated by undisputed workhorses, the crease now frequently hosts a strategic rotation. This evolution profoundly impacts team strategy and, crucially, fantasy hockey success.
A Retrospective Glance: The Era of the Solitary Guardian
For decades, the ideal NHL goaltender was a singular force, capable of shouldering an immense workload. Think of the legendary netminders who played 65, 70, or even more games in an 82-game season. Data from the 2009-10 to 2016-17 seasons, preceding the Vegas Golden Knights` expansion, paints a clear picture: the average top-12 fantasy goalie commanded approximately 74.1% of their team`s crease time. During this period, a quarter of all NHL teams featured a goalie playing 75% or more of the games, and over half relied on a primary starter for at least 65% of their contests. Consistency and durability were paramount; the “set-and-forget” goalie was the bedrock of many championship rosters.
The Modern Crease: A Divided Realm
However, the post-expansion era, from 2017-18 to 2024-25, tells a different story. The average crease share for a top-12 fantasy goaltender has plummeted to roughly 65.0%. The prevalence of goalies playing 75% or more of games has dwindled to a mere 7.9% of teams, with only 33.3% having a goalie with at least 65% share. The days of single-player dominance, outside of a select few, appear largely to be a historical footnote.
Indeed, exceptions like Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy, who have individually accounted for 11 of the last 20 instances of 75%+ crease share, stand out like lone wolves in an increasingly communal landscape. They represent a vanishing breed, reminding us that while the workhorse might not be extinct, it is certainly an endangered species.
The New Benchmark: The 65% “No. 1”
This shift necessitates a redefinition of what constitutes a “No. 1” goaltender, particularly in fantasy leagues. While 75% was once the gold standard, a 65% crease share now appears to be a reasonable and realistic threshold for a primary starter in the modern NHL. Last season, 15 goalies managed to hit this mark, a notable increase from just eight the season prior. This indicates that while outright dominance is rare, a solid, primary workload remains achievable for a significant portion of the league`s goaltenders.
For fantasy managers, especially those in weekly lineup leagues, targeting goalies who can consistently achieve this 65% share offers the most reliable path to accumulated wins and fantasy points without the constant headache of juggling backups.
Why the Shift? The Strategic Imperative of Tandems
The move towards goaltending tandems isn`t arbitrary; it`s a strategic response to the demands of the modern game. Factors contributing to this evolution include:
- Injury Prevention & Load Management: The grueling 82-game schedule, combined with intense travel and increased shot volumes, takes a toll. Splitting duties can reduce physical and mental fatigue, ideally keeping both goalies healthier and sharper for longer.
- Complementary Skill Sets: Some tandems feature goalies with different strengths, allowing coaches to deploy them strategically based on opponents or recent performance.
- Developing Talent: Young goalies can ease into NHL workloads without being overwhelmed, learning alongside a veteran mentor.
- Cost Efficiency: Two mid-tier goalies can sometimes be more cost-effective and provide similar, or even superior, performance to one elite, highly-paid starter.
Navigating the Goaltending Minefield: Fantasy Hockey Implications
For the astute fantasy hockey manager, understanding this shift is not just academic; it`s critical for draft day and in-season management. The old adage of “draft an elite goalie early and forget about it” is largely obsolete. Instead, consider these strategies:
- Embrace the Tandem: In daily lineup leagues, drafting both halves of a strong tandem can be a highly effective, and often cheaper, strategy. You gain starts and production without the premium price of a singular “No. 1.”
- Identify Emerging Workloads: Look for situations where a goalie, previously part of a tandem or dealing with injuries, is poised to take on a larger share. A player like Adin Hill in Vegas, now with a clear path to significant starts, exemplifies this potential.
- Sleeper Candidates in Struggling Situations: Teams like Columbus (with Jet Greaves) and San Jose (with Yaroslav Askarov) might be lottery-bound, but a promising young goalie can still shine and offer immense value in keeper leagues as the team improves.
- The “Gold Standard” Tandem: Teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs, where both Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll consistently delivered significant fantasy points despite split duties, prove that two can indeed be better than one. Early ADP trends might even present an opportunity to target the “undervalued” half of such a duo.
- The “Nothing to See Here” Warning: Conversely, some teams present such a chaotic or unproductive goaltending situation (we`re looking at you, Philadelphia) that it`s often best to simply bypass their crease entirely, unless you relish a high-stress, low-reward gamble.
Conclusion: Adapt or Be Left Behind
The NHL goaltending landscape has matured. The days of unwavering reliance on a single, heroic netminder are largely behind us, replaced by a more nuanced, strategic approach. For general managers building rosters and fantasy managers crafting their draft boards, recognizing and adapting to this “Great Goalie Shift” is no longer an option—it`s a necessity. The puck stops with the goalies, but how it gets stopped, and by whom, is a perpetually evolving narrative that demands our continuous attention.
Rupert Hartwell