As the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs get underway, key questions are being asked: Can Connor Hellebuyck replicate his regular season success in the playoffs for the Winnipeg Jets? Will the series between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars be like an early Stanley Cup Final? And is this finally the year Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl lead the Edmonton Oilers to victory?
Beyond these team storylines, it`s important to assess which players will be most valuable in the postseason.
This ranking uses Goals Above Replacement (GAR), a metric that evaluates a player`s overall contribution — in offense, defense, and goaltending — compared to a replacement-level player. GAR balances positional value, allocating 60% of league-wide value to forwards, 30% to defensemen, and 10% to goalies.
To determine playoff value, a system inspired by Bill James` `established level` concept is used. This system averages each player`s GAR over the past three regular seasons, with a greater emphasis on the 2024-25 season. To account for rising stars, a safeguard ensures a player`s established level is not less than 75% of their most recent season`s GAR.
This approach blends peak, recent, and consistent performance, identifying players on playoff teams who have been consistently excellent, are currently performing well, or are improving, to predict who might define this year’s playoffs.
Note: Injured players expected to miss significant playoff time are excluded, such as Jack Hughes.
Here are the top 50 skaters and goalies in the 2025 playoffs, ranked by their three-year established value level:
Note: Stats are current as of Tuesday, April 15. Three-year averages for offense, defense, and goaltending are shown for the top 20.
1. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets
GAR: 2024-25: 30.4 | 2023-24: 28.1 | 2022-23: 28.0
Three-year avg: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 29.2 | Total: 29.2
Hellebuyck is considered the best goalie of his generation, significantly ahead of other goalies in GAR since 2017-18. He is expected to win the Vezina Trophy and is a Hart Trophy contender. His consistency is remarkable, leading the league in quality starts (44) 72% of the time. Despite potential team curses, Hellebuyck is the Jets` key weapon if he maintains his usual performance.
Playoff outlook: His playoff performance needs to match his regular season form. His save percentage in past postseasons is lower than his regular season average. Reversing this trend is crucial for the Jets` playoff success.
2. Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche
GAR: 2024-25: 24.2 | 2023-24: 31.0 | 2022-23: 24.5
Three-year avg: O: 21.2 | D: 5.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.5
MacKinnon is a standout talent for the Avalanche. Despite a slight dip from his MVP-caliber 2023-24 season, he drives Colorado`s offense, significantly improving the team`s shot share when he`s on the ice. Stopping MacKinnon is crucial for any opponent.
Playoff outlook: The Avalanche-Stars series is a tough first round matchup. MacKinnon`s playoff time might be limited, but his offensive impact could challenge the Dallas defense.
3. Leon Draisaitl, F, Edmonton Oilers
GAR: 2024-25: 28.0 | 2023-24: 23.3 | 2022-23: 27.9
Three-year avg: O: 21.7 | D: 4.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.4
Draisaitl had a career-best goal-scoring season in 2024-25. He has consistently produced high point totals, joining a select group in NHL history. He was a strong MVP candidate and remains so.
Playoff outlook: Draisaitl is a proven playoff performer. Facing the Kings in Round 1 again, he aims to continue his strong scoring record against them.
4. Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
GAR: 2024-25: 26.1 | 2023-24: 29.9 | 2022-23: 19.6
Three-year avg: O: 22.5 | D: 3.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.3
Kucherov won his second straight Art Ross Trophy, highlighting his offensive creativity and danger. The Lightning are again a top Stanley Cup contender. Kucherov is central to their league-leading offense, performing at his peak.
Playoff outlook: Kucherov is a proven playoff scorer. He is expected to perform well, especially against a Panthers team with a less strong defense this season.
5. Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche
GAR: 2024-25: 30.1 | 2023-24: 22.9 | 2022-23: 18.6
Three-year avg: O: 18.4 | D: 7.4 | G: 0.0 | Total: 25.8
Makar is a defenseman who could contend for MVP, battling Hellebuyck for the league lead in GAR. He achieved offensive numbers not seen from a defenseman in decades. His offensive drive from the blue line, combined with defensive responsibility, makes him a top defenseman.
Playoff outlook: Makar gives the Avalanche a key defensive advantage over Dallas. Colorado`s defense is ranked higher than Dallas`, which could be decisive in their series.
6. Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers
GAR: 2024-25: 20.4 | 2023-24: 27.4 | 2022-23: 35.8
Three-year avg: O: 20.8 | D: 4.6 | G: 0.0 | Total: 25.3
Ranking McDavid sixth reflects the high quality of top players this year and a slight dip in his performance. He missed games and had his lowest adjusted stats since his rookie season. However, he remains crucial to Edmonton`s Cup aspirations.
Playoff outlook: Despite a slightly less dominant regular season, McDavid is still Connor McDavid, a proven playoff performer. He can still lead the Oilers to a Stanley Cup.
7. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Tampa Bay Lightning
GAR: 2024-25: 28.6 | 2023-24: 2.9 | 2022-23: 20.6
Three-year avg: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 21.5 | Total: 21.5
While Hellebuyck is considered the top goalie, Vasilevskiy had a career-best season in 2024-25. He rebounded from a subpar 2023-24 season, reaffirming his status as an elite goalie and lifting the Lightning.
Playoff outlook: Vasilevskiy has a high playoff ceiling, with two Cups and a Conn Smythe Trophy. He can carry the Lightning on a deep playoff run if he gets hot.
8. Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
GAR: 2024-25: 15.9 | 2023-24: 29.4 | 2022-23: 20.2
Three-year avg: O: 17.6 | D: 3.5 | G: 0.0 | Total: 21.1
After a near-MVP season, Matthews faced injuries and had lower point and goal totals in 2024-25. Despite this, he remains a top forward, reflecting his consistently high level of play.
Playoff outlook: Matthews faces high playoff expectations in Toronto. While capable of big moments, his playoff production hasn`t always matched his regular season dominance. More is expected of him starting in Round 1 against Ottawa.
9. Mikko Rantanen, F, Dallas Stars
GAR: 2024-25: 18.1 | 2023-24: 21.5 | 2022-23: 23.7
Three-year avg: O: 15.9 | D: 4.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.2
Rantanen played for three teams in 2024-25. Despite the changes, he remains a well-rounded winger with a strong shot. Pressure is on the Stars to win a Cup after acquiring him.
Playoff outlook: Rantanen carries high expectations to help Dallas contend for the Cup, especially after the team invested heavily to acquire him.
10. William Nylander, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
GAR: 2024-25: 19.8 | 2023-24: 20.2 | 2022-23: 19.0
Three-year avg: O: 17.0 | D: 2.8 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.8
With Matthews` production slightly down, Nylander had a career-best goal-scoring season in 2024-25. He maintained consistency throughout the season and is a key player for the Leafs.
Playoff outlook: Nylander has been a consistent playoff performer. He is expected to score goals even against strong defensive teams like Ottawa.
11. Brayden Point, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
GAR: 2024-25: 19.2 | 2023-24: 18.7 | 2022-23: 20.7
Three-year avg: O: 16.5 | D: 2.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.3
Point is a highly reliable NHL player, consistently producing across the board. His partnership with Kucherov remains effective, making him a crucial part of Tampa Bay`s offense.
Playoff outlook: Point was excellent during the Lightning`s Cup runs and is expected to play a central role again, especially against a potentially weaker Panthers defense.
12. Sam Reinhart, F, Florida Panthers
GAR: 2024-25: 18.4 | 2023-24: 25.1 | 2022-23: 10.0
Three-year avg: O: 14.9 | D: 4.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.3
Reinhart had a breakout season in 2023-24 and remained a top performer for the Panthers in 2024-25, leading them in key offensive categories. He is now considered a valuable all-around forward.
Playoff outlook: Despite his regular season success, Reinhart`s playoff scoring has been lower. The Panthers need him to improve his playoff production for them to repeat as champions.
13. Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers
GAR: 2024-25: 19.4 | 2023-24: 24.1 | 2022-23: 8.9
Three-year avg: O: 12.2 | D: 7.0 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.2
Bouchard followed up a breakthrough season with another strong performance on Edmonton`s blue line. He is a key part of the Oilers` core, contributing offensively and defensively.
Playoff outlook: Bouchard was outstanding in the 2023-24 playoffs and is expected to be a factor again, even with a change in his defensive partner for Round 1.
14. Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets
GAR: 2024-25: 17.9 | 2023-24: 19.1 | 2022-23: 18.9
Three-year avg: O: 11.0 | D: 7.4 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.5
Morrissey has been consistently strong for Winnipeg over the past three seasons, ranking high among defensemen in GAR. He is a key player for the Jets` strong regular-season team.
Playoff outlook: Morrissey needs to translate his regular season performance to the playoffs. Improving his playoff impact is crucial for the Jets` postseason success.
15. Filip Gustavsson, G, Minnesota Wild
GAR: 2024-25: 24.6 | 2023-24: 4.8 | 2022-23: 23.1
Three-year avg: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 18.4 | Total: 18.4
Gustavsson has had a varied three seasons, becoming a top backup, then struggling, and then excelling as Minnesota`s starter in 2024-25. His consistent goaltending is vital for the Wild.
Playoff outlook: Gustavsson has limited playoff experience. The Wild`s hopes for an upset against the Golden Knights rely heavily on his goaltending.
16. Mitch Marner, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
GAR: 2024-25: 19.0 | 2023-24: 17.1 | 2022-23: 19.4
Three-year avg: O: 14.7 | D: 3.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.4
Marner is known for his consistency. In 2024-25, he set a career high in adjusted points, evolving his playmaking. He remains a key player for Toronto.
Playoff outlook: Marner`s playoff performances have been scrutinized, but he has shown flashes of strong play. Toronto needs him to perform well, starting against Ottawa.
17. Jason Robertson, F, Dallas Stars
GAR: 2024-25: 16.8 | 2023-24: 16.7 | 2022-23: 26.6
Three-year avg: O: 14.7 | D: 3.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.4
Robertson`s high ranking is partly due to his exceptional 2022-23 season. While still a top player, his recent performance hasn`t quite matched that peak. He remains vital to Dallas, though currently injured.
Playoff outlook: Robertson has been solid in past playoffs but could use more consistency, especially in scoring. Dallas is a stronger team with him, and his return is important.
18. Linus Ullmark, G, Ottawa Senators
GAR: 2024-25: 15.7 | 2023-24: 13.7 | 2022-23: 35.2
Three-year avg: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 18.3 | Total: 18.3
Ullmark`s ranking benefits from his outstanding 2022-23 season with Boston. While not replicating that form with Ottawa, he has been solid and helped them reach the playoffs after a long drought.
Playoff outlook: Ullmark`s playoff experience is limited and his past performances are not strong. However, he could outperform expectations against Toronto despite their offensive strength.
19. Sebastian Aho, F, Carolina Hurricanes
GAR: 2024-25: 15.7 | 2023-24: 21.6 | 2022-23: 15.7
Three-year avg: O: 12.4 | D: 5.2 | G: 0.0 | Total: 17.6
Aho is a consistently strong player for Carolina, contributing in all areas. He is crucial to the Hurricanes` puck-possession style and their Cup aspirations.
Playoff outlook: Aho is a consistent playoff performer and will be key against the strong defense of the New Jersey Devils.
20. Victor Hedman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
GAR: 2024-25: 17.3 | 2023-24: 20.3 | 2022-23: 11.3
Three-year avg: O: 11.7 | D: 5.6 | G: 0.0 | Total: 17.3
Hedman has rebounded from a slump to post strong seasons again, anchoring Tampa Bay`s defense and contributing offensively. He is a proven playoff performer.
Playoff outlook: Hedman is a Conn Smythe winner and a trusted blueliner for big games. He will be crucial against Florida`s forwards.
21. Jake Guentzel, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
GAR: 2024-25: 18.9 | 2023-24: 16.8 | 2022-23: 13.4
Three-year avg: 17.3
22. Kyle Connor, F, Winnipeg Jets
GAR: 2024-25: 22.0 | 2023-24: 12.3 | 2022-23: 12.5
Three-year avg: 17.1
23. Brandon Hagel, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
GAR: 2024-25: 20.9 | 2023-24: 13.4 | 2022-23: 12.9
Three-year avg: 17.1
24. Jack Eichel, F, Vegas Golden Knights
GAR: 2024-25: 20.2 | 2023-24: 13.7 | 2022-23: 14.3
Three-year avg: 17.1
25. Kirill Kaprizov, F, Minnesota Wild
GAR: 2024-25: 13.2 | 2023-24: 21.2 | 2022-23: 16.3
Three-year avg: 16.4
26. Adrian Kempe, F, Los Angeles Kings
GAR: 2024-25: 16.8 | 2023-24: 15.4 | 2022-23: 16.4
Three-year avg: 16.3
27. Darcy Kuemper, G, Los Angeles Kings
GAR: 2024-25: 21.6 | 2023-24: -1.7 | 2022-23: 11.6
Three-year avg: 16.2
28. Mark Scheifele, F, Winnipeg Jets
GAR: 2024-25: 19.1 | 2023-24: 13.5 | 2022-23: 12.1
Three-year avg: 16.1
29. Jesper Bratt, F, New Jersey Devils
GAR: 2024-25: 16.9 | 2023-24: 14.6 | 2022-23: 16.0
Three-year avg: 16.0
30. Matthew Tkachuk, F, Florida Panthers
GAR: 2024-25: 12.1 | 2023-24: 17.8 | 2022-23: 22.7
Three-year avg: 15.8
31. Jake Oettinger, G, Dallas Stars
GAR: 2024-25: 18.7 | 2023-24: 8.3 | 2022-23: 22.0
Three-year avg: 15.8
32. John Tavares, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
GAR: 2024-25: 17.6 | 2023-24: 12.5 | 2022-23: 16.1
Three-year avg: 15.7
33. Alex Ovechkin, F, Washington Capitals
GAR: 2024-25: 19.7 | 2023-24: 10.0 | 2022-23: 14.9
Three-year avg: 15.6
34. Roope Hintz, F, Dallas Stars
GAR: 2024-25: 14.4 | 2023-24: 14.9 | 2022-23:: 18.9
Three-year avg: 15.3
35. Nico Hischier, F, New Jersey Devils
GAR: 2024-25: 16.1 | 2023-24: 12.5 | 2022-23: 17.9
Three-year avg: 15.2
Rupert Hartwell