The upcoming 2025 NHL Draft class features several highly talented prospects, including defenseman Matthew Schaefer and forwards Michael Misa and James Hagens. However, securing the first overall selection isn`t automatically granted to the team with the poorest regular-season performance. Instead, the final order of the initial 16 picks in the first round is determined by a lottery drawing.
While you can tune in to watch the event unfold, here`s a breakdown of how the system operates and which teams hold the best chances of winning the top pick.
Why the NHL Uses a Draft Lottery
The lottery system offers multiple non-playoff teams a chance at obtaining the coveted first overall pick, acknowledging the significant impact top prospects can have. Theoretically, this also serves to discourage teams from intentionally underperforming to secure the best draft position, as winning isn`t guaranteed simply by finishing last. Furthermore, the lottery adds an element of excitement for fans of teams that missed the playoffs in the period between the season`s end and the draft itself.
How the Lottery Drawing Works
The process involves 14 ping pong balls, which allow for 1,001 unique four-number combinations. Each team eligible for the lottery is assigned a specific set of these random combinations. A team`s probability of winning is directly tied to its regular-season record – the worse the record, the more combinations assigned. For instance, the team finishing last (such as the San Jose Sharks in the recent season) receives the highest number of combinations, giving them the greatest chance (18.5%) in the initial draw.
An independent accounting firm conducts and verifies the drawing process. One combination is excluded from the pool, leaving 1,000 possibilities. The first set of balls drawn determines the team selecting first overall. However, rule changes implemented in 2021 limit a team`s upward movement to a maximum of 10 positions from their original standing. Therefore, if a team ranked 12th through 16th wins the first draw, they move up 10 spots, and the team with the worst record assumes the first overall pick.
A second drawing is then held to determine the team selecting second, applying similar rules regarding the 10-spot limitation. Regardless of the lottery results, the draft order for Rounds 2 through 7 is simply the reverse order of the final regular-season standings after the playoffs conclude.
Notably, the lottery draws are now frequently broadcast live, allowing fans to experience the outcome in real-time.
Teams` Probabilities in the 2025 Lottery
Here is a list detailing each participating club`s likelihood of winning a lottery drawing:
- San Jose Sharks: 18.5%
- Chicago Blackhawks: 13.5%
- Nashville Predators: 11.5%
- Philadelphia Flyers: 9.5%
- Boston Bruins: 8.5%
- Seattle Kraken: 7.5%
- Buffalo Sabres: 6.5%
- Anaheim Ducks: 6.0%
- Pittsburgh Penguins: 5.0%
- New York Islanders: 3.5%
- New York Rangers: 3.0%
- Detroit Red Wings: 2.5%
- Columbus Blue Jackets: 2.0%
- Utah Hockey Club: 1.5%
- Vancouver Canucks: 0.5%
- Calgary Flames*: 0.5%
*Note: The Calgary Flames` 2025 first-round pick currently belongs to the Montreal Canadiens via trade. This pick is protected if it falls within the top 10. If the Flames were to win a lottery drawing that moves their pick into the top 10 (e.g., resulting in the 6th pick), they would keep their pick, and Montreal would instead receive the Florida Panthers` first-round pick, which the Flames also hold.
Further Lottery Regulations
Among the rules introduced in 2021, a significant change prevents any single team from winning the draft lottery more than twice within a five-year timeframe (starting with the 2022 lottery). Since the San Jose Sharks were winners in 2024, another win in 2025 would make them ineligible to win again until the 2029 lottery.
Rupert Hartwell 
Benedict Kingsley