CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The second round of the PGA Championship is complete. While discussion about the mud balls that dominated the first round was less prevalent, many players made significant moves, and the leaderboard remains one of the most diverse in recent memory. Some of the surprising names near the top after the opening day couldn`t replicate their performance, but 40-year-old Jhonattan Vegas held firm and now holds the 54-hole lead. Perhaps the most significant development was world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler`s 3-under round, positioning him perfectly to contend for his third major title.
“I think most of me is just glad to be close to the lead. If you`re going to play a 72-hole golf tournament, there`s going to be days and stretches of golf where you`re not swinging it your best,” Scheffler commented. “Over the course of a tournament this long and on a major championship setup, there`s going to be some bumps in the road. It`s all about how you respond to those. I did a good job of responding to those mistakes today and keeping myself in the tournament.”
Furthermore, Scheffler is still where he began the week: the favorite to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.
Here`s what to keep an eye on this weekend.
Jhonattan Vegas is leading at the halfway point; what do you think his chances to win are?
Schlabach: `Johnny Vegas` might not be the most celebrated winner among golf fans, but his career journey is remarkable. He was a top junior player in Venezuela before moving to Houston in 2004 when Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez reportedly threatened to convert urban golf courses into public housing.
When Vegas arrived in the U.S., he reportedly spoke only a few English words and had well-used clubs. He improved enough to earn a scholarship to the University of Texas. After turning professional, he spent two years on the Korn Ferry Tour before securing his first PGA Tour victory at the Bob Hope Classic in 2011. Vegas has won three additional times since then, his most recent win being the 3M Open in July.
Vegas mentioned not sleeping well before Friday`s round after finishing late the previous day. Sleeping on his first lead at a major likely didn`t help. He`ll face sleeping on another two-shot lead before the third round. His last made cut in a major was a tie for 57th at the 2021 U.S. Open. This marks only his third appearance in the four major championships since then.
A double-bogey 6 on the 18th hole marred what was otherwise a solid second round for Vegas. He finished at 1-under 70, leaving the course with a two-stroke advantage. After gaining nearly four strokes on the field with his putting in the first round, his putter cooled significantly in the second, losing almost one stroke. However, his tee-to-green game remained outstanding.
I would be shocked if Vegas wins the PGA Championship in wire-to-wire fashion.
Uggetti: Data Golf gives Vegas a 9.4% probability of winning. This means that even with a two-stroke cushion entering the weekend, Vegas is only the second favorite. Scottie Scheffler (23.4% probability, three shots back) and Bryson DeChambeau (9% probability, five shots back) complete the top three contenders according to their model.
The fact that Vegas not only stayed competitive in the second round but shot under par and maintained his lead is commendable. However, if I were assessing his actual winning chances, I`d estimate them at 5%, if not lower.
“I feel like my game is very complete, but I just haven`t been able to put it all together in a major,” Vegas stated Friday. “I think I`ve been patient enough to not really get too down on myself for not playing well at majors. It`s just kind of one of those things that you`ve just got to keep learning about yourself and what it takes to play good here. Unfortunately, it`s taking me a little bit longer than usual, but I`m glad that I`m in this position right now.”
It would be a fantastic narrative, as Mark pointed out, but if Vegas were to lift the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday, it would rank among the most improbable major victories we`ve witnessed since Jimmy Walker`s PGA win in 2017. Perhaps even more unlikely.
Which player(s) outside the top 10 do you think could still win?
Schlabach: I chose DeChambeau as my pre-tournament pick, and he`s still within striking distance at 3 under par. The LIV Golf player bounced back from an even-par 71 in the first round with a 3-under 68 on Friday. He is tied for 17th place, five shots behind Vegas.
DeChambeau is hitting the ball a significant distance at Quail Hollow; he leads the field in driving distance (331.6 yards) and strokes gained off the tee. His putting has been predictably solid. However, DeChambeau`s iron play remains slightly inconsistent, similar to his performance at the Masters, and he`s dissatisfied with his chipping (losing nearly two strokes on Thursday and slightly improving Friday).
“You have to have your irons super precise this week, which we all know how good my wedges are, so that makes it a little bit more difficult for me,” DeChambeau noted. “That`s OK, though.”
“It`s a great test. I`ve just got to have my putting a little more on and keep playing the way I am. It easily could be 7, 8 under right now, or I could be even par. So just keep moving along, and I think a 65, 64 is out there. I almost shot it out there today and I definitely saw it out there, I just didn`t accomplish it.”
Uggetti: There are many prominent names lurking outside the top 10, and with a tournament that still feels relatively open, as this one does, it could potentially be won by a variety of players.
However, even on a challenging course like Quail Hollow, I anticipate the top players will continue to ascend the leaderboard. And despite his recent challenges in some major championships, perhaps no one is as adept at doing that as Jon Rahm. The Spaniard has quietly put together two exceptionally steady rounds of golf and is currently at 2 under par, six shots behind Vegas, heading into the weekend.
“I think I`m in good position,” Rahm commented. “Adding to the fact that I feel like I`m getting better, more confident with the swing. I made a lot of good swings out there today and gave myself plenty of chances.”
Discussion surrounding Rahm at the majors has centered on his inability to contend since his 2023 Masters victory, but it`s easy to forget that at that time, he was arguably one of the most consistent and dominant players globally. He continues to secure top-10 finishes on the LIV tour, however you choose to evaluate those results, and it wouldn`t be surprising to see him mount a charge for the lead this weekend. He could certainly benefit from it.
How far back is too far to still be in contention?
Uggetti: Is it an exaggeration to suggest that anyone who made the cut could potentially make a run? Probably, but this course setup, similar to many past PGA Championships, has kept the leaderboard fairly congested. Even with Vegas at 8 under, players like Collin Morikawa (even par) and Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele (1 over) have the capability to shoot very low scores and make a charge. In my view, the effective leader right now is Scottie Scheffler at 5 under, but that also implies Scheffler would need to falter, which seems unlikely. Players such as Morikawa, Schauffele, and McIlroy will realistically need rounds in the mid-to-low 60s to have a chance, but it`s not entirely beyond the realm of possibility.
A more realistic perspective suggests that being at 1 under par is probably too far back. Being four shots behind Scheffler and seven behind the overall leader presents a formidable challenge.
Who is your pick right now heading into the weekend?
Schlabach: I picked Scottie after the first round, and he played one stroke better Friday with a 3-under 68, which was sufficient to place him in a tie for fifth. He showed improvement in almost every statistical category in the second round, except for driving accuracy (hitting six out of 14 fairways).
“I like the position I`m in going into the weekend,” Scheffler said. “Obviously, I wish I was a little bit further up the leaderboard. I think I got a lot out of my game the last couple days. I felt like, as the round went on, my swing continued to get better, and I was able to hit some key shots down the stretch to give myself some opportunities. Looking forward to the weekend.”
Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open champion, is the only other golfer within the top 10 who has previously won a major. Vegas, Matthieu Pavon, Michael Thorbjornsen, Alex Smalley, and Sam Stevens are unlikely to hold off Scheffler should he make a surge.
Uggetti: Scheffler feels almost destined to win, particularly considering he hasn`t yet played a round demonstrating the level of performance expected from the undisputed world No. 1. However, a part of me keeps returning to Bryson. He has been far from flawless this week and is clearly still struggling with his approach shots (ranking 77th in the field), but it also feels like he`s on the verge of a round where everything comes together. His driving remains an incredibly powerful asset; he simply needs to find the fairway more consistently to have a real opportunity.
What player missing the cut was the biggest disappointment?
Schlabach: There are many valid candidates, as several top-ranked golfers, including Justin Thomas (3 over), Hideki Matsuyama (3 over), Ludvig Åberg (3 over), Justin Rose (9 over), and Russell Henley (10 over), will not be competing at Quail Hollow over the weekend.
I would likely choose JT because I believed he had a strong chance to perform well this week. He won three weeks prior at the RBC Heritage and secured his first major title at the 2017 PGA Championship, also held at Quail Hollow.
Thomas hit only 13 of 28 fairways (4 of 14 in the opening round) and found only 16 of 36 greens. He carded nine birdies but committed far too many errors as well.
Uggetti: I`ll go with Åberg. His form leading into this week had been inconsistent, but Quail Hollow still seemed like a course well-suited to his game. Instead, he finished 145th in strokes gained: driving and 86th in approach play. The sample size is small, and perhaps expectations have been set too high too quickly, but this now marks two missed cuts in his two PGA Championship appearances.
Adrian Whitmore