What Wrexham Need for Championship Promotion: Scenarios Ahead of Facing Charlton

Wrexham hasn`t competed in the second tier of English football since 1982, but promotion is now within tantalizing reach for the world`s oldest club in Wales as the League One season nears its conclusion. With just two matches left, the situation is clear for Phil Parkinson`s team. A significant boost came on Easter Monday from Charlton Athletic. Following dropped points by Wycombe Wanderers, Wrexham can secure a place in the second tier by winning their final two games.

The battle for promotion saw a substantial, possibly decisive, shift during the 4 4th round of fixtures. Wrexham managed a tense victory away at Blackpool. Goals from James McClean and Ollie Rathbone came just after the hour mark, but a late strike by Rob Apter created a nervous finish at Bloomfield Road, though ultimately successful. Meanwhile, in south London, Charlton proved extremely helpful to Wrexham`s cause, knocking Wycombe out of second place with a comprehensive 4-0 win at the Valley.

However, this might not be the final twist. That win also kept Charlton`s hopes for automatic promotion alive. Their next challenge? A visit to Wrexham`s Racecourse Ground. By then, Wrexham will know if Leyton Orient, who face Wycombe earlier on April 26, did them any favours. The finish line is in sight for the Welsh club, but can they maintain their position?

League One Promotion Standings

The sides finishing first and second will automatically be promoted to the Championship, with teams ranked third to sixth entering the playoffs, a two-legged semi-final followed by the final at Wembley on May 25.

Wrexham`s Remaining Fixtures

• April 26: Charlton (H)
• May 3: Lincoln (A)

What Wrexham Need to Secure Automatic Promotion

Wrexham can secure automatic promotion to the Championship with a win against Charlton on Saturday. However, they will also need assistance from Leyton Orient, who must avoid defeat against Wycombe Wanderers for Wrexham`s win to be sufficient. If Leyton Orient secures at least a draw against Wycombe, a victory for Wrexham would create a minimum four-point gap between them and Wycombe, making it impossible for Wycombe to catch up in the final game.

Has a Team Ever Risen This Fast?

Could any team have ascended as rapidly as Wrexham potentially will? If Wrexham successfully fends off Wycombe and other rivals, they would achieve three promotions in as many consecutive seasons. In the 2022-23 campaign, they returned to the English Football League after 15 years, immediately following this by comfortably securing promotion from League Two, finishing second.

While several other English clubs have climbed three levels of the pyramid consecutively – Truro City and Shaw Lane even rose four times in a row – none have done so through the highest tiers of the English football structure as quickly. For instance, FC United of Manchester climbed three tiers after their founding by dissatisfied Manchester United fans in June 2005, but this took them to the Northern Premier League Premier Division, which is level seven.

Wrexham has faced opponents of a higher standard in their quest for the second tier. The 2022-23 National League was largely composed of professional clubs, and every team in Leagues Two and One is fully professional. It`s important to acknowledge, however, that Wrexham, under the ownership of Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, has possessed the financial capability to assert dominance at every level they`ve competed in so far. This leads to a significant question that arises with potential promotion.

Could Wrexham Survive in the Championship?

Let`s briefly set aside the idea of this team climbing another level to reach the Premier League. Back-to-back promotions from League One to the top flight have happened – Ipswich Town achieved this just last season – but clubs that manage this are typically among the established powerhouses of English football.

Although Wrexham has cultivated a passionate global fanbase since the takeover, competing in the Championship is financially demanding. In League Two, Wrexham`s wage bill exceeded $14 million annually, a figure that has undoubtedly increased with the addition of former Premier League players like Jay Rodriguez and Matty James. Even with higher salaries, a wealthy promoted side might still spend only a third of what the wealthiest Championship clubs pay. Wrexham director Humphrey Ker has even mentioned that salary expenditure might need to quadruple to keep pace after promotion.

Such significant investment might be even more crucial because Wrexham`s underlying statistics don`t necessarily suggest a team prepared to challenge clubs like Southampton and Leicester. Phil Parkinson`s squad has scored 56 goals from 48.1 expected goals (xG) and conceded 32 goals from shots worth 42.4 xG against them. While they currently sit second in the League One table, ranking clubs by non-penalty xG difference places Wrexham ninth.

These statistics don`t bode well for Wrexham`s ability to secure promotion in their final two games, let alone survive in the Championship if they reach it. Then again, the narrative of this club since 2020 has been one of a team willing to step up when the moment arrives. If they do indeed get out of League One, anticipate that the revenue gained from being in the Championship will be invested to help Wrexham remain there.