Power plays in the NHL are exceptionally effective this season, reaching levels of dominance not seen in decades.

Data from ESPN Research indicates that the average power play conversion rate is 21.6% as of Tuesday night`s games. This is the highest rate since the 1985-86 season, when Wayne Gretzky`s Edmonton Oilers were renowned for their powerful offense.

This high success rate is not new; it`s part of an ongoing trend. If it continues, this season will mark the third consecutive year with power play conversion rates exceeding 21%, a streak unmatched since the mid-1980s.

However, there`s a contrasting trend: NHL power plays are also becoming increasingly rare.

In the 2024-25 season, teams are averaging just 2.71 power play opportunities per game. This is the lowest average since the NHL began tracking this statistic in 1977-78. The previous lows were 2.89, recorded in both the 2021-22 and 2020-21 seasons. This scarcity of power plays is also a multi-year trend, with the NHL averaging fewer than three power play chances per team per game in five of the last seven seasons.

Fewer penalties called directly lead to fewer power plays. Currently, the average number of penalties called per team per game is at a 20-year low for an 82-game season, with an average of 3.48 penalties and only 8.15 penalty minutes.

In comparison, the 2014-15 season saw averages of 4.03 penalties and 9.86 penalty minutes.

So, where have all the penalties disappeared to?

New Jersey Devils center Cody Glass jokingly commented, `If I talk about it, I`ll probably get a lot of penalties tonight. Honestly, I`m not sure. Some games have none, others might have seven. It varies a lot.`

Many NHL players are even unaware of the decline in power plays.

Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman admitted, `I didn`t realize it until I read about it. I haven`t personally noticed a significant change.`

Conversations with NHL players, executives, data analysts, and former referees have revealed several theories about why penalties and power plays are at historic lows this season.

Here are six of the most prominent theories:

The Impact of Parity

As of Thursday night, a significant 14 out of 16 teams in the Eastern Conference were either in a playoff position or within six points of one. The Western Conference is also tightening up, with 11 teams in playoff contention or close to a wild card spot, largely due to the St. Louis Blues` recent performance.

In such a competitive league where many teams believe they can make the playoffs, every point is crucial. Stephen Walkom, NHL executive vice president and director of officiating, suggests that this parity is a key factor in the reduction of penalties and power plays.

`With such competitive balance in the league, teams are simply trying to avoid taking penalties,` Walkom explained.

The desire to avoid letting teammates down is also a strong motivator.

`No one wants to be the player in the penalty box,` Coleman stated. `I can see how parity is causing fewer penalties. With so many teams fighting for playoff spots, every point is vital.`

Dave Jackson, ESPN`s NHL rules analyst and a former NHL referee for over 40 years, has observed a change in player behavior as games become more critical in the standings.

`Many teams are already playing with playoff intensity,` Jackson noted. `Early in the season, many penalties are due to carelessness or retaliation. But in playoff-level games, these types of penalties disappear. Now, penalties are more likely to be from desperation or accidental, due to intense competition.`

Given the close standings, many teams have been operating in a playoff mindset for some time.

Rule Reinforcement and Player Discipline

This season is projected to be the second consecutive year with a decrease in penalty calls, although the difference between the last two seasons is minimal (3.85 to 3.84). Looking at a broader perspective, there`s been a substantial decline in penalties per game since the 2005-06 season.

In 2005-06, the average number of minor penalties per team per game was 6.49. Five years later, it dropped to 4.05, and five years after that, to 3.66. This season, the average is down to 3.18.

From 2010-11 to 2014-15, the average for minor penalties was 3.84 per game. In the last five seasons, this average has decreased to 3.34.

Walkom believes players deserve credit for this trend. `After 15 years of penalties being called for hooking and slashing hands, players learn to avoid these actions. It`s possible that players have become more disciplined and are making a conscious effort to avoid penalties.`

Each preseason, players are briefed on the standards of enforcement. Tomas Tatar, a veteran of 14 years, believes that the emphasis and repetition of these rules influence player behavior.

`They consistently warn us against using our sticks around hands and for hooking. Protecting players` hands is a major point of emphasis, and these penalties are called promptly if they occur,` he said.

`You have to adjust. Either you adapt, or you`ll keep getting penalized.`

It`s plausible that this consistent emphasis on specific penalties and the reinforcement of officiating standards each season have contributed to the declining penalty numbers.

One NHL executive suggested, `The most convincing explanation is that we`ve reached a point where players have adapted to playing the game in a certain way.`

The optimal number of power plays in a game is a continuous debate, even among players. Glass mentioned that many players prefer games to be decided at even strength, 5-on-5, rather than on special teams.

`That`s when you see the best hockey,` Glass said. `The game should keep flowing. Penalties should be called when warranted, but minor, borderline calls should be let go to keep the game moving. Physicality is part of hockey.`

Are Officials Letting Too Much Go?

Given the long-term decrease in penalty calls, it`s natural to question if officials are now overlooking too many infractions.

However, the NHL tracks both penalties called and missed calls. `Our data shows that the percentage of missed calls is not increasing,` Walkom stated.

Both Walkom and Jackson reject the idea that officials are allowing players to get away with more lately.

`Our standard remains consistent. We continually reinforce the NHL standard for every penalty. It stays the same,` Walkom asserted. `We encourage our officials to call penalties whenever they meet the standard, at any point in the game. We don`t want them inventing penalties.`

Jackson recounts attending numerous NHL preseason officiating camps as both a referee and an analyst.

`I`ve heard Gary Bettman address the officials and say, “We`ve invested heavily in bringing you to training camp. We`ve shown you videos. You know the standard. If an action meets the standard, call the penalty, and you`ll have my full support.” That has always been his message,` he shared.

Jackson believes consistency arises not from trying to even out calls or manage the game—a common criticism of officials—but from consistently applying the established standard.

`It`s about sticking to the standard. This way, players understand where they stand, and justifying a penalty becomes much easier,` he explained.

Cyclical Nature of Penalties

Jackson has observed a cyclical pattern in penalty calls, occurring roughly every decade. `It`s like a wave pattern – high, then low, then high again,` he described.

Jackson was an official during the 2005-06 season. Following the lockout-cancelled season, the NHL revised its rulebook and re-evaluated enforcement to address declining scoring, which had reached its lowest point since 1956.

Legalizing two-line passes was one strategy to improve offense, but the most impactful measure was instructing referees to adopt a `zero tolerance` approach to obstruction penalties like interference, holding, and hooking.

`When we introduced the obstruction standard in 2005, penalties significantly increased,` Jackson remembered.

Average power plays per team per game jumped from 4.24 in 2003-04 to 5.85 in 2005-06, the highest since 1987-88. Player re-education continued until around the 2008-09 season, when power plays eventually decreased to 4.16 per team per game.

Jackson notes that whenever the NHL emphasizes enforcing a specific rule, power plays tend to spike. He points to the 2017-18 season, when power plays slightly increased due to a crackdown on slashing, and 2021-22, when a focus on cross-checking helped power play chances stabilize and then rise in 2022-23.

This cyclical pattern suggests that penalty rates fluctuate depending on the NHL`s current enforcement priorities. Players adapt to avoid one type of penalty, only to shift to other infractions until the league addresses those as well.

`It`s almost like cybersecurity,` Jackson compared. `Criminals develop a tactic, widespread hacking occurs, and then authorities find a way to counter it. This slows them down for a while, but then they devise a new method, causing numbers to spike again, until that too is resolved, and numbers decrease again.`

One theory Jackson supports for the current penalty decline is that the NHL is not currently `cracking down` on any particular area. There is no specific point of emphasis like obstruction or cross-checking.

`There`s no current `teachable moment.` The game is where they want it to be,` he stated. `And players are generally playing within the rules.`

Fear of Dominant Power Plays

Historically, top power play teams like the Edmonton Oilers and Detroit Red Wings are expected to be among the most effective over decades.

However, surprisingly, the most potent power play since 1984-95 belongs to Connor McDavid`s 2022-23 Oilers, converting at an astonishing 32.4%.

Similarly, Dylan Larkin and the 2024-25 Red Wings have the fifth-best power play conversion rate (29.1%) in the last 40 years, surpassing even Sergei Fedorov’s era Red Wings. Remarkably, eight of the top 10 single-season power play performances in the past 40 years have occurred between 2018-19 and the current season.

This season`s overall conversion rate of 21.6% is the highest since 1985-86 (22.2%). Currently, nine teams have power play conversion rates exceeding 25%.

This success is partly due to teams achieving an exceptionally high shooting percentage of 15.1% on power plays this season. To contextualize this, since 2005-06, only one season (2022-23) has seen an average power play shooting percentage above 14%.

At recent general managers` meetings, the NHL highlighted `offensive trends,` including a league-wide shooting percentage of 10.5% in all situations, which they noted was the highest in 30 seasons.

Conversely, penalty kill save percentages are at a 20-year low of .850, even lower than the .860 recorded in the penalty-heavy 2005-06 season.

During a media presentation at the GM meetings, the NHL emphasized that these historic conversion rates are a `significant factor` in the decrease in power plays. Gary Meagher, NHL senior vice president, noted, `Teams are hesitant to take penalties because of the high success rates of power plays.`

Are referees also aware of this? Do they consciously avoid giving teams power plays in situations that could decisively swing the game, knowing how effective power plays are currently?

`No,` Jackson responded firmly.

The Speed of the Modern Game

At the GM meetings, the NHL proudly announced that this is the fourth consecutive season with average scoring at six goals per game or higher, the first such streak in 30 years.

This scoring increase is due to several factors, including higher shooting percentages, power play effectiveness, and two rounds of expansion. Long-term, the rule changes from 2005-06 have fostered a style of play that values offense and encourages teams to prioritize speed in roster construction. The era of slower, physically imposing players on the fourth line and defense is diminishing.

`The game has become much faster. Players are less bulky, more agile and quick,` Tatar observed. `This applies to defensemen too. Everyone can skate now.`

Players suggest that increased speed is a reason for the decline in penalties over the past decade. Blake Coleman noted that the days of less-skilled players needing to resort to hooking are gone.

`Everyone is such a skilled skater now. It`s easier to defend using your feet and skating ability,` he said.

While there`s a perception that the NHL has `become younger,` data doesn`t fully support this. Analysis from September 2024 indicated that the average player age in 2023-24 was slightly higher than in 2013-14. Similarly, the average age on opening night rosters this season was higher than three years prior.

Coleman, 33, considers himself between `old school` and `new school.` While younger players haven`t completely dominated, he believes newer generations have contributed to a cleaner style of play.

`You see fewer headshots, for example,` he mentioned. `Maybe players are more aware now. It`s been ingrained in us [not to do it]. Younger players have likely heard it since they were very young.`

Playoff Implications

Jackson challenges the common belief about fewer power plays in the playoffs.

`In the first round of the playoffs, there are actually more penalties per game than in the regular season,` he explained. `This is likely due to talent disparities. In matchups like a top seed versus an eighth seed, the outmatched team takes more desperation penalties.`

Recently, a strong power play has been linked to playoff success. Data from TSN shows that six of the last eight Stanley Cup champions had a regular season power play ranked in the top eight. The exceptions were the 2019 St. Louis Blues (11th) and the 2023 Vegas Golden Knights (18th).

Current playoff contenders with a top-eight power play include the Golden Knights, Winnipeg Jets, Devils, Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Oilers. The Colorado Avalanche are also very close to this group.

Power plays are undeniably important in the playoffs, and power play success is common among champions. The high conversion rates and shooting percentages seen this regular season are likely to continue into the playoffs, as multi-season power play trends tend to persist.

However, the regular season`s scarcity of power plays might not extend to the playoffs. Power play opportunities often decrease as playoff series progress.

Data analyst Cam Charron noted that the first four games of the first round typically see more power plays than expected, but officiating tends to become less penalty-focused later in series and in subsequent rounds.

`Data shows that while power play opportunities do increase in the playoffs, it`s not consistent throughout the tournament,` he wrote. `There`s a surge in power plays early in the first round, followed by a significant decline later on.`

Ultimately, the postseason may mirror the regular season: even historic power play conversion rates are irrelevant if there are few power plays to begin with.