The 2025 NHL offseason presents a challenging landscape with a limited pool of top free agents coinciding with a significant rise in the salary cap. This environment makes it highly probable that teams will overpay for talent, potentially validating the old adage about mistakes being made on July 1st.
Mitch Marner stands out as the most prominent free agent available this year. There is a noticeable gap in caliber between him and the next tier of players like Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, John Tavares, Brock Boeser, and Aaron Ekblad. This contrasts sharply with the summer of 2026, which could potentially see superstars such as Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, and Jack Eichel become available. While many of these players may extend with their current clubs, the possibility should urge general managers to exercise caution and avoid signing excessively large contracts in 2025.
The scarcity of high-value players in the 2025 market increases the likelihood of contracts being signed that exceed a player`s true worth. To succeed in the Stanley Cup playoffs, teams need players who perform above their contract value and must avoid inefficient cap allocations. While tax-free states offer some advantage, many elite players already provide surplus value well beyond any tax differential. Examples include Sam Reinhart, Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, Thomas Harley, and Shea Theodore, who offer considerable value compared to their cap hits. Similarly, players like Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Seth Jarvis, and Nico Hischier in non-tax states, and particularly the core in Edmonton like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Zach Hyman, significantly outperform their current deals.
Based on current reports, Mitch Marner is seeking a contract in the range of $14 million annually. However, an analysis suggests an efficient contract for a player of his value would be closer to $12 million. Similarly, Sam Bennett, also represented by Darren Ferris, is rumored to be looking for around $9 million per year. A player with a career-high of 51 points receiving a contract comparable to an elite second-line center, while producing closer to a low-end second or high-end third-liner, represents poor cap management. While arguments exist for Marner`s regular-season prowess and Bennett`s playoff impact, a team aiming to contend simply cannot afford to pay these players significantly more than their on-ice value.
Given Toronto`s existing salary cap structure, re-signing Marner to an inefficient contract is likely to prevent the team from building a balanced roster needed for long-term success. For Marner to play on a true contender, contract efficiency is paramount. Applying the same standard of efficiency seen in contracts like Leon Draisaitl`s upcoming deal, anything above $12 million for Marner would severely handicap the team`s ability to build a competitive roster around him, especially considering he has yet to replicate Draisaitl`s playoff performance level. Marner would realistically need to sign for closer to $10 million annually to provide the kind of valuable contract seen with players like Reinhart, Kucherov, and Kaprizov.
It is increasingly clear that the Maple Leafs require a significant organizational change. Although potential trades were reportedly discussed but not completed in the past, the reality now is that a superstar-caliber player like Marner may depart without a return. However, Toronto cannot justify extending Marner on an inefficient deal, particularly given his playoff performance history. Instead, they should pursue an alternative strategy.
With the contracts of Mitch Marner and John Tavares expiring, the Maple Leafs gain considerable salary cap flexibility. While they cannot replace Marner`s individual skill with a single player, they can redistribute the salary cap resources to improve the overall lineup depth. Tavares is expected to re-sign with Toronto, and a rumored annual salary around $5 million would be an efficient contract for a middle-six center, especially one who scored 38 goals in the 2024-25 season.
Instead of a short bridge deal, the Leafs should aim to sign restricted free agent Matthew Knies to a long-term contract in the neighborhood of $8.5 million per year. Combined, the projected cost of Tavares and Knies ($13.5M) is less than Marner`s rumored asking price, while providing potentially more overall value across two forward lines. Toronto should also anticipate Easton Cowan contributing in a middle-six role on his entry-level contract next season. It is crucial for GM Brad Treliving to trade at least two players from the group of David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Max Domi, and Nick Robertson. The cap space freed up from these moves could be used to acquire valuable middle-six players like Matt Duchene, Brad Marchand (if available), or Pius Suter, significantly improving the team`s forward depth.
These roster adjustments would allow Toronto to field three productive forward lines. The Florida Panthers` effective third line was a key factor in their series victory over the Leafs, a success enabled by efficient contracts higher up the roster, allowing for a more balanced approach to team building.
Speaking of the Panthers, there have been reports of the Leafs` interest in Sam Bennett. While understandable given his playoff impact, it`s worth remembering Bennett`s performance before joining Florida; Treliving, while GM in Calgary, traded Bennett away because he struggled to find consistency. Bennett fits well in Florida, but much of his perceived value includes physical play and “extracurricular activities.” If these aspects of his game draw more penalties, his value could diminish. Consider John Tavares, who scored 38 goals and 74 points this past season and is likely to sign for around $5 million. Sam Bennett`s career high is 51 points. Signing Bennett to a contract worth 1.5 times Tavares` salary until Bennett reaches Tavares` age, despite significantly lower career points per game (0.48, improving to 0.68 in Florida), would be detrimental to Toronto`s cap situation.
Florida`s apparent reluctance to pay Bennett more than $7 million annually (which itself might be considered slightly high) provides a clear signal the Maple Leafs should heed. A $7.5 million AAV for Bennett would be inefficient but potentially manageable if his style doesn`t lead to increased penalties under the intense Toronto media spotlight. However, if Bennett`s camp seeks a higher salary, the Leafs should prioritize cap efficiency and pursue alternative targets like Pius Suter or Matt Duchene in free agency, or potentially look at trade options for players who offer better value.
Regardless of the specific players acquired through free agency or trade, the Maple Leafs must prioritize balancing their forward depth and strictly avoid signing inefficient contracts. They currently have too many such deals on their books and would benefit greatly from moving some. Successful teams don`t contend solely because of one or two star players, even in cases like the Edmonton Oilers with McDavid and Draisaitl.
Instead, sustained contenders thrive because their key players outperform their contracts, and their depth players provide quality minutes. This depth is built by management making smart acquisitions of players on efficient deals. Examples include Florida`s effective third line, Edmonton`s valuable depth players like Corey Perry and Zach Hyman, and Dallas`s ability to acquire a star player like Mikko Rantanen partly because players like Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley, and Matt Duchene are on efficient contracts.
Toronto needs to adopt a ruthless mindset, similar to the Tampa Bay Lightning during their consecutive Stanley Cup wins or the Vegas Golden Knights since their inception. If a player`s contract demands are not aligned with what the team needs to be successful under the salary cap, then they should not be part of the Maple Leafs roster. Furthermore, significant trade protection clauses should become a relic of the past for anyone outside the top six forwards or top four defensemen. While limited no-trade clauses for third-line players might be manageable, granting any level of trade protection to easily replaceable depth players like David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, or Ryan Reaves severely handicaps the team`s necessary roster flexibility. To win, the Leafs must remain laser-focused on contract efficiency, which likely means sacrificing some pure talent in the short term to build a more balanced, sustainable model that has proven successful for other championship organizations.
Benedict Kingsley 
Rupert Hartwell