Wrexham AFC, Wales` oldest football club, hasn`t played in the second tier of English football since 1982. Promotion to the Championship is now a real possibility as the League One season nears its end. However, after a 2-2 draw against Cambridge United, who are fighting relegation, and with rivals also competing for promotion, Wrexham`s fate is not entirely in their own hands.
With six games remaining, Wrexham is currently second in the league table. Birmingham City leads League One and is likely to secure promotion, sitting 11 points ahead of Wrexham with two games in hand. The competition for the second automatic promotion spot is intense.
Wycombe Wanderers control their own destiny in the promotion race, despite drawing with Shrewsbury Town. Charlton Athletic and Stockport County both gained points recently, making the promotion battle even closer as the season approaches its conclusion on May 3rd.
League One Promotion Battle
| Team | Pld. | W | D | L | GD | Pts. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 39 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 43 | 92 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 41 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 27 | 81 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 40 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 28 | 75 |
| 4 | Stockport | 41 | 21 | 11 | 9 | 24 | 74 |
| 5 | Charlton | 41 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 19 | 73 |
| 6 | Bolton | 40 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 66 |
The top two teams in League One will be automatically promoted to the Championship. Teams finishing third to sixth will compete in playoffs, consisting of two-legged semi-finals and a final at Wembley on May 25th, for the final promotion spot.
Wrexham`s Upcoming Matches
- April 5: Wrexham 3, Burton 0
- April 12: Wigan (a)
- April 18: Bristol Rovers (h)
- April 21: Blackpool (a)
- April 26: Charlton (h)
- May 3: Lincoln (a)
Wrexham`s Path to Promotion
Wrexham`s automatic promotion is not guaranteed. If Wycombe wins all their remaining games, even if Wrexham also wins all of theirs, they would be level on points. Goal difference would then decide, and Wycombe currently has a slight advantage.
A perfect winning streak from both teams is improbable. Promotion likely depends on key matches. While games against Burton Albion and Bristol Rovers might seem easier due to their lower league positions, facing relegation-threatened teams at this stage of the season can be challenging.
Crucial games for Wrexham and Wycombe are against Charlton Athletic in late April. Charlton plays Wycombe and then Wrexham in quick succession. Charlton winning either match could significantly impact the promotion race, and winning both would bring Charlton into contention.
Historical Context of Wrexham`s Potential Rise
If Wrexham achieves promotion, it will be their third promotion in three seasons. They returned to the English Football League in 2022-23 after 15 years and then gained promotion from League Two the following season.
While other English teams have achieved consecutive promotions, including Truro City and Shaw Lane, Wrexham`s potential rise is through higher tiers of the English football pyramid. FC United of Manchester, for example, also had three promotions but reached a lower level in the pyramid.
Wrexham`s journey to the second tier is against increasingly professional opposition. The National League, League Two, and League One are all fully professional leagues. Wrexham`s owners, Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, have provided significant financial backing, which has been key to their success. This raises questions about their potential in the Championship.
Wrexham`s Championship Prospects
While Premier League promotion is a distant thought, consecutive promotions from League One to the Premier League are rare and usually achieved by top clubs. Despite Wrexham`s global fanbase, the Championship is financially demanding.
Wrexham`s wage bill was already high in League Two and has increased with signings like Jay Rodriguez and Matty James. However, even with increased spending, their budget might be significantly lower than the top Championship clubs. A Wrexham director suggested their salary expenditure might need to quadruple to compete in the Championship.
This investment is crucial because Wrexham`s underlying statistics don`t strongly suggest Championship readiness. They have scored more goals than their expected goals (xG) suggest, and their expected goals against (xGA) is higher than goals conceded. While second in the league, their non-penalty xG difference ranks them ninth, indicating potential overperformance.
These statistics raise concerns about Wrexham`s promotion chances and their ability to stay in the Championship. However, Wrexham has shown a capacity to overcome challenges. If promoted, the financial resources of the Championship are likely to be reinvested to ensure their survival.
Adrian Whitmore 
Benedict Kingsley