Wrexham, the historic Welsh club, hasn`t played in the second tier of English football since 1982. Now, they are very close to achieving promotion from League One as the season nears its end. However, after a 2-2 draw against Cambridge United, a team fighting to avoid relegation, their promotion destiny is no longer solely in their hands. This happened on a night when their rivals missed an opportunity, preventing Wrexham from seizing full control of the promotion race.
With only six matches remaining, Phil Parkinson`s team currently holds second place in the league standings. Birmingham City is leading the league and seems set to advance to the Championship, holding an 11-point lead over Wrexham with two games in hand. The competition for the second automatic promotion spot is intense.
Wycombe Wanderers, despite taking 30 shots against Shrewsbury Town, who are at the bottom of the league, only managed a draw. Meanwhile, Charlton Athletic and Stockport County both gained ground on Tuesday, setting up an exciting finale to the season on May 3rd.
League One Automatic Promotion Race
| Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal Difference | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 38 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 39 | 89 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 40 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 78 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 39 | 21 | 12 | 6 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Charlton | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 72 |
| 5 | Stockport | 40 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 22 | 71 |
| 6 | Bolton | 39 | 19 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 63 |
The top two teams in the league will be automatically promoted to the Championship. Teams finishing third through sixth will participate in playoffs: a two-legged semifinal followed by the final at Wembley on May 25th.
Wrexham`s Upcoming Matches
- April 5: Burton Albion (Home)
- April 12: Wigan (Away)
- April 18: Bristol Rovers (Home)
- April 21: Blackpool (Away)
- April 26: Charlton (Home)
- May 3: Lincoln (Away)
What Wrexham Needs for Promotion
Wrexham`s promotion to the top two is not guaranteed. If Wycombe wins all of their remaining seven games, even if Wrexham wins all of theirs, they would be tied on points. In this case, goal difference would be the deciding factor, where Wycombe currently has a five-goal advantage and has also scored more goals overall.
However, it`s unlikely that Wycombe will win every remaining game. Promotion might depend on key matches for both teams. Wrexham`s games against Burton Albion and Bristol Rovers should be easier, considering the points gap. Yet, at this point in the season, facing teams fighting relegation can be very challenging.
A crucial period for both Wycombe and Wrexham will be in late April. Charlton will play against both teams within five days, first at Wycombe and then at Wrexham. If Charlton wins either of these matches, it could significantly change the promotion race. If Charlton wins both, they could become strong contenders themselves.
Wrexham`s Rapid Rise: Historical Context
If Wrexham successfully stays ahead of Wycombe and other contenders, they will achieve their third promotion in just three seasons. In the 2022-23 season, they rejoined the English Football League after 15 years and immediately secured promotion from League Two in second place.
Several other English teams have achieved three consecutive promotions. Truro City and Shaw Lane even managed four. However, no team has risen so quickly through the highest levels of the English football pyramid. For example, FC United of Manchester achieved three promotions after being formed in 2005, but they reached the Northern Premier League Premier Division, which is level seven in the pyramid.
Wrexham`s situation is different because they are competing at higher levels against professional clubs in League One and League Two. Wrexham, under the ownership of Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, has had significant financial resources, giving them an advantage at every level they have played in. This raises the question of their potential success in the Championship.
Can Wrexham Compete in the Championship?
Consider the possibility of Wrexham achieving another promotion to the Premier League. Back-to-back promotions from League One to the Premier League are rare, although Ipswich Town accomplished it last season. Typically, only major English clubs achieve this. Wrexham has gained a large global fanbase since the takeover, but the Championship is a very expensive league.
In League Two, Wrexham`s annual wage bill exceeded $14 million, and it likely increased with the signings of players like Jay Rodriguez and Matty James. Despite potentially higher salaries, Wrexham`s spending might still be significantly less than that of the wealthiest Championship clubs. Wrexham director Humprey Ker suggested that their salary expenditure might need to quadruple to remain competitive after promotion.
Underlying statistics suggest some challenges for Wrexham in the Championship. Parkinson’s team has scored 56 goals from 48.1 expected goals (xG) and conceded 32 goals from 42.4 expected goals against (xG). While they are second in League One, their non-penalty xG difference ranks them ninth in the league.
These statistics might raise concerns about Wrexham`s ability to secure promotion and then survive in the Championship. However, since 2020, Wrexham has consistently risen to challenges. If they do get promoted from League One, expect significant investment to ensure they can remain competitive in the Championship.
Adrian Whitmore